Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. kate

    al in memphis....Whoever is president will have to continue digging us out of the BIG MESS the Bush administration left us in. Obama has started that process and it will take another 4 years or so to get it back on track. Bush spent the money now this Pres. has to figure out how to recover it....and the next president and the next and the next. Romney and Ryan are not the ones to do it as they will only continue with the Bush policies that got us here in the first place.President Obama didn't get us into the mess...Bush did.

    October 12, 2012 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  2. Stagnant Economy?

    Do people really think the economy is worse than 4 years ago?...housing prices are slowing going up...the stock market is at an alltime high.....my salary, investments, savings, etc. have increased....and i'm not in the 1%...why all of the gloom & doom?

    October 12, 2012 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  3. TX Jim

    Obama gave up FL a long time ago .. the only ads they run there are because Paul Ryan is on the ticket.. and they are trying to pick off as many seniors as possible.

    He doesnt need FL to win..

    October 12, 2012 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  4. @GuileOfTheGods

    Ummm, actually, in Florida, Obama is winning. How do I know? I live in Florida. Sorry, CNN, WRONG AGAIN :(

    October 12, 2012 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  5. jake

    If seniors vote for Romney in Florida say goodbye to medicare. Don't get sick. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.

    October 12, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  6. mb2010a

    Obama will still win Florida just as he will win Ohio. The next two debates will undoubtedly be won by Obama and the numbers will swing the other way. Biden won the debate last night, despite what the Republicans are saying and that will be reflected in the pol numbers in the days to come. It is statistically impossible for Romney/Ryan to win the Electoral vote...Obama/Biden 2012. Obama = 345, Romney = 193...

    October 12, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  7. Edwin

    Most political analysts have believed Florida would - barely - go Romney this year. This close-but-slightly-GOP poll is merely evidence of that. Ultimately, though, it will be a question of voter turnout - who gets out more of their base to vote. Republicans have more machinery and money for it right now, but democrats have always done more grassroots work... so it should be a close race.

    Let's hope Florida has improved their handling of voter situations this time - especially since they purged thousands of legal voters in their effort to remove a handful of illegal ones. Can someone explain to me *why* this state likes to have voting crises?

    October 12, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  8. anne

    If Romney really is up inthe polls it is only because Florida is full of old grey heads and red necks with an IQ of 3 who are all as racist as the KKK.

    October 12, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  9. VCMD

    Democrats have added 4 Trillions to our Debt in 4 years to buy the votes and they are also promising that they will save the SS and Medicare using ENRON accounting. At least Ryan acknowledged that we won't have enough money to pay for Medicare/SSN at current levels and we have to either increase contributions or reduce benefits!

    October 12, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  10. Wade

    News flash Romney is winning in NC, FL, Co, Tied in WI, a point behind in Pa and MI and winning nationally with Likely voters by 4 points.

    October 12, 2012 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  11. anne

    Who dont the old grey heads and the white trash red necsk really come out and sya what they think that they wont vote for the black guy cos they are racists.

    October 12, 2012 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  12. Mac

    Morons south of the Mason Dixon line.

    October 12, 2012 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  13. JanetMermaid

    Here's the question everyone should be asking themselves: The next president will likely appoint 3-4 Supreme Court justices. Those folks will affect this country for the next FIFTY years. Do you want a president who believes big business comes before working Americans? Who puts profits over people? Who thinks it's OK to be in two wars and actually WANTS a second war? Who doesn't believe a woman has a right to control her body? Who believes it is OK to discriminate against a large portion of the population (gays)? Who sees no value in high quality education? Who has no concern for the elderly and disabled? THINK ABOUT THE TYPE OF JUSTICE ROMNEY WOULD APPOINT. Frankly it scares me to death.

    October 12, 2012 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  14. Brenda

    Yes! Keep it up. Hopefully every other state will follow suit when they see through the Obama/Biden lack of subsance.

    October 12, 2012 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  15. nocas

    Borderless: said: Obama was counting on Racist Joe to turn things around. With yet another loss under their belts, Team Obama is finding that just spreading lies and false accusations about their opponents isn't getting the job done.

    When was Biden Racist?!! Biden showed very well last night how to deal with a dishonest person like Ryan, he kept reminding Ryan of what he did in the congress and now criticizes the administration for it!!! Biden reminded Ryan of the stimulus money he asked for saying it would create jobs in Ryan's state, and now Ryan criticizes it!!! Ryan did not give one specific on his taxes plan; Ryan implied women that are raped have to keep the babe.......really??!! No government for business but Ryan wants government to tell women what to do with their bodies??!! HIPOCRITE comes to mind! 2 faces are what repubs are, and so their supports – or supporters are ignorant, and can’t discern truth from lie! Sad people repubs are.

    October 12, 2012 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  16. David

    jack from Illinois must not be paying attention since it is well known now that between Obama and Romney only Obama's plan takes money from Medicare for SENIORS receiving benefits NOW. It's not that hard Jack, just wake up and pay a little more attention!!!!

    October 12, 2012 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  17. SPF

    Romney has no edge. If you want a president that will eliminate consumer protections to grow the economy, then vote for him. But when you get tainted drugs, or your credit cards charge you 300% for one late payment, then maybe you will care. Paid into SS the last 20 years, oh well, you wont see any of that money back. That's what a vote for Romney truly is.

    October 12, 2012 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  18. jinx88

    Does anyone read the article, this was taken after first debate. Every other polls showed a Romney bounce after the first debate then dwindled back to Obama favor. This poll does not consider the VP debate from last night, so before the Repukes get their white briefs in a bunch I would just wait and see.

    October 12, 2012 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  19. Siara

    Taking away the voting rights of Hispanics was probably a great move for the GOP. Good job guys. Corrupt as usual.

    October 12, 2012 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  20. Four and The Door

    Steve
    obama had a bad night? in fact he has had a bad 3 years.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________
    I wouldn't even give Obama that he had a bad night. Fact was Mitt Romney's strategy and plans for America had an excellent night. They won the evening and Mitt Romney was the perfect guy to deliver them. Obama apparently didn't get that the debate was going to be about issues, plans and strategies. He thought they would be more along the lines of his campaign. Personal attacks and misinformation.

    October 12, 2012 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  21. Siara

    Way to go GOP. Take the Hisp@nics out of the voting equation and you win.

    October 12, 2012 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  22. Josaphat Daniels

    What you right wingnuts don't get is that Obama can still win without florida while romney can't, by the way even sucking at
    one debate is not enough for romney to beat Obama .

    October 12, 2012 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  23. BLKMANinAmerica

    Clearly the people in FL do not care or are not informed of just want robo-Romney will NOT do to help there situation.

    October 12, 2012 11:31 am at 11:31 am |
  24. Buzz1975

    Now we just wait for the polls next week and no doubt Obama will be in the lead. Let's see the response to the facts from the VP debate...if the seniors were paying attention, they won't vote Romney/Ryan. Same with anyone who thinks women deserve to have the right to decide about their own bodies. And same for anyone who doesn't want another war just because Romney wants one.

    October 12, 2012 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  25. Louis in Wisc.

    The media has to try and keep this "close" so people will pay attention but I bet Obama wins every swing state on election day.. Wait until the next debate when Obama presses Romney for specfics and he can't produce them like Ryan couldn't last nite.. the "TRUST ME" won't fly come election day

    October 12, 2012 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13