Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Borderless

    Obamakins are all excited about the new jobless numbers but in reality there is no reason to celebrate. The numbers are going to be corrected next week to adjust for an oversight from a substantial source. But even if it moves the number back up to 8%, it's still about where Obama found it. The argument from the Obamakins then becomes, "But hey, he brought us back from the brink. We had dipped down much further." Yes, we dipped down much further than 8% and he brought us back to, for the sake of argument, 7.8%. Applause? I don't think so. While America may be more employed than it was a couple of years ago, the growth in jobs has been almost entirely in low paying unskilled labor and government jobs. So here's the math. As far as employment is concerned, we are right back where we were when Obama took office. We're just poorer. Excellent fail, Mr. President.

    October 12, 2012 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  2. DEMOCRATS ARE IN FACT THE BIGGEST TAX CHEATS AROUND. Timothy Geithner THE PERFECT EXAMPLE.

    The people of Florida are awaking. After these debates people can CLEARLY see the obvious choice

    ROMNEY / RYAN 2012

    October 12, 2012 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  3. Dnick47

    If perchance the dark duo (Romney/Ryan) are elected, the tax evasion issue will come to the forefront and Mr. Romney will not be able to evade it or sweep it under the rug anymore. This will lead to his resigning in disgrace like Nixon (another prominent Republican liar) leaving Cold-hearted Ryan as Commander in Chief who was part of the "Young Toughs" (or whatever they were called) who came in as reformers under Newt... their first act of "reform" was to meet in the dead of night to vote themselves a huge wage and benefits package. So what do you think he'll do when he has the power? I shudder to think.

    October 12, 2012 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  4. ConfucianScholar

    Romney's momentum is unstoppable since Obama is pushing him along with the failing economy and a weak foreign policy.

    October 12, 2012 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  5. Steve S

    Utterly amazing that Florida's Senior Citizens would vote for the Romney/Ryan ticket and their 'voucher' retirement plan?
    The idea that private insurance companies would medically insure many aging Americans with previous health issues is ludicrous!?.

    This is a virtual DEATH SENTENCE for many of the elderly............................................................

    October 12, 2012 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  6. nilla

    This poll surveyed 800 people. I've been behind more Floridiians than that while waiting to ride Space Mountain.

    These polls are useless.

    October 12, 2012 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  7. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    Having problems courting the latino vote Willard? Here's soe advice. Since you are a master panderer, you should make it a priority to get caught stuffing your face with burritto or a taco every chance you get. Better yet, get a photo op in the barrio kicking it with eses. Whoops! My bad Willard. There aren't alot of Mexicans in Florida. There's a bunch of Cubans. Easy fix. Lose the button of shirts and get you some Che Guevara t-shirts and a black beret.

    October 12, 2012 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  8. Joyce

    Please find out the specifics (if one exist) of Romney's plans – healthcare, economy, foreign policy, security, women's rights. It'll be quite a search for he changes his stance depending on who is listening.
    Do you people really think Romney would have done a better job taking over from Bush? Economically, he would have left the auto industry dead, transfer jobs outside the country (more profitable), keep his money in Switzerland, and yes, he is clueless on foreign policy. Some of you want that.
    If the republican congress would only find a way to work with the administration instead of it's number 1 agenda which is to get him out of office, things would get going for the better a lot faster. But this is not the case. So much for country first.

    October 12, 2012 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  9. NameGohomeMitt

    All u REPUGS will be crying in 2yrs if these ducks win! Mark my word!

    October 12, 2012 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  10. Scott

    Once Floridians digest the Ryan medicare plan, they will recoil. Watch the polls in a few days.

    October 12, 2012 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  11. Amelia

    Go Mitt!

    October 12, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  12. 2020

    American people have enough with Romney and Ryan. Pack up and go back to Cayman Islands. That is where you belong.

    Let the auto industry thrive as it should be. Let Middle class thrive again !!!

    October 12, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  13. Jack

    It's apparent that the dems only plan is more taxes, more spending, and denial. They still believe the 1% can support the 99% even though the math does not add up. It probably more likely the 1% will disappear rather than be robbed by the dems.

    October 12, 2012 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  14. sf

    John Baloney

    Biden was rude!

    -----------------

    And romney and ryan weren't? give me a break!

    October 12, 2012 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  15. john2655

    remind me not to visit florida

    October 12, 2012 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
  16. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    Having problems courting the latino vote Willard? Here's some advice. Since you are a master panderer, you should make it a priority to get caught stuffing your face with a burritto or a taco every chance you get. Better yet, get a photo op in the barrio kicking it with eses. Whoops! My bad Willard. There aren't alot of Mexicans in Florida. There's a bunch of Cubans however. Easy fix. Lose the button up shirts and get you some Che Guevara t-shirts and a black beret. Florida is won!

    October 12, 2012 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
  17. User-301

    I hope Romney has a better source for getting his pool information otherwise he is going to be very shocked when the real numbers come across in election day and he's running far behind Obama. They did the same thing to McCain.

    October 12, 2012 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
  18. Ron

    Florida resident here....Romney is going to take the state. The state suffered greatly from the recession, more so than most, but they also realize that Obama has not been good for the state. People remember the jobs-supression after the Gulf oil spill, the Dream Act by fiat, the 2-month tax cut that put businesses on time-outs....this isn't a typical election, the anger factor is pretty high.

    October 12, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  19. wolfdaddy

    awesome! GO ROMNEY!!!!!

    October 12, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  20. sf

    so will the right wing nut jobs denounce this new poll and say that it's being 'fixed' or what?

    October 12, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  21. sellsword

    So let me get this right...

    Biden said they didn't know the embassy needed extra security and that's the republican's fault?

    Yeah, and they didn't know about guns going south to mexico, the GSA parties in Vegas ...

    Clearly they don't know – So as the President and Vice President of the US when will either of these lame-os stnad up and say the buck stops here?

    I really wish Ryan stopped and said – what's so funny about a dead amabssador and 3 other americans!

    Biden is a perfect example of an Obama decision – useless

    October 12, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  22. Keith

    With high unemployment among blacks and hispanics what exactly are they expecting from Obama? They will get more of the same. As Biden put it they will continue burying them just as they have the last 4 years. Joes words. So why are they voting for Obama? The fact he is black is not going to get them a job. No we need someone experienced at creating jobs. THATS ROMNEY!

    October 12, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  23. ALKP

    I cannot believe that 90 minutes is all it took to change some people minds!!! that to me is incredible. I am still voting against Romney.

    October 12, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  24. Brad

    Jake – that lie doesn't work any longer....sorry....

    October 12, 2012 11:43 am at 11:43 am |
  25. SMJ

    HA HA HA!! What a joke! I know MANY Republicans voting for Obama in Florida!!

    October 12, 2012 11:44 am at 11:44 am |
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