Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Santee

    Romney tells lie after lie. How can you trust the man to do anything but lie. He will say whatever people want to hear, just to win. He can't even keep his story straight. He's sad. I usually like to watch CNN but how are you conducting your polls. If you think for one minute that Paul Ryan came close to winning the debate, then I have a bridge in North Carolina to sell you. Joe Biden's performance was stellar, commanding, above reproach!

    October 12, 2012 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
  2. Liberty&JustForAll

    Of course he's ahead. How can any sane person that loves America and Freedom vote this total failure of a President back in?

    October 12, 2012 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  3. DEMOCRATS ARE IN FACT THE BIGGEST TAX CHEATS AROUND. Timothy Geithner THE PERFECT EXAMPLE.

    Hussein Obama and Buffoon Biden have lost. Their arrogance alone is unbearable.

    October 12, 2012 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  4. bluedogboy

    Come on Florida! Vote Obama so I can keep my free obamaphone and all my gov't handouts! I don't want to work!! Obama makes that possible. Romney will make me have to work for a living. VOTE OBAMA!
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________

    This is the type of baloney that makes me nuts. Give me one example of something that Obama has given free to people that is different from Bush 1 , Bush 2, or Reagan. Don't say Obamacare...that is a mandate, not free health insurance. Don't say Food Stamps, welfare checks or unemployment checks because those have been around for decades.

    October 12, 2012 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  5. Four and The Door

    The smart Democratic Senator hoping for reelection in November should start distancing himself ( or herself ) from Obama. We will begin seeing this right after Tuesday's debate when it's clear Mitt Romney is going to sweep the series.

    October 12, 2012 11:47 am at 11:47 am |
  6. ohio

    that surprises me. i would think that seniors would not at all want what romney/ryan plans to do
    with their retirement and health care-. These have to be die-hard republicans who don't realize
    it's not 1950 anymore. Wake up or the tea party is going to ruin the country.
    if a listener didn't come out thinking biden made a lot of sense and knew the facts from every direction
    then i'd say, man what in the world were you watching? It sure wasn't the debate i saw.

    October 12, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  7. ray

    The old folks in Florida need to pull their heads out of their butts and smell the coffee. Robmey will do just that, and they'll suffer.

    October 12, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  8. Mike

    Florida, home of some of the most egregious voter suppression laws

    October 12, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  9. Joi Gibson

    For the time being. This is one Floridian who will proudly vote for President Obama. I shudder to think if the count is close, especially with Lurch and his minions purging voters and now wanting to be able to hand pick judges for the Florida Supreme Court. I can see the elderly thinking VP Biden was picking on the young, good looking man who always brings his mother with him to Florida rallies.

    GET OUT AND VOTE PEOPLE

    OBAMA/BIDEN/FIRST LADY MICHELLE 2012!!!!

    October 12, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  10. DEMOCRATS ARE IN FACT THE BIGGEST TAX CHEATS AROUND. Timothy Geithner THE PERFECT EXAMPLE.

    IT's interesting how the democrats scream that everyone else is lying while they're the ones doing the lying.

    There's obviously a patter emerging here.

    October 12, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  11. Keel Hauler

    John, it's true, visiting Florida is not a good idea for a number of reasons. I know, I live here. Nothing but rude immigrants, idiots and criminals. Florida needs to be amputated, at least the southern third of it. Just let me get out first...

    October 12, 2012 11:49 am at 11:49 am |
  12. Keel Hauler

    John, it's true, visiting Florida is not a good idea for a number of reasons. I know, I live here. Nothing but rude immigrants, fools and criminals. Florida needs to be amputated, at least the southern third of it. Just let me get out first...

    October 12, 2012 11:49 am at 11:49 am |
  13. Jack

    I can see why there is lack of cooperation in government; Joe is an arrogant jerk. Who other than Obama would want to work with him. It's his way or your a liar. He has been in government way too long.

    October 12, 2012 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  14. Paul

    Romney/Ryan trying to "divide and conquer" technique on retirees by saying that, "don't worry, anyone over 55 will not be affected". "We'll take care of you but your children are screwed when they get the voucher". Same with social security as they want to privatize it. I don't think I can go with your standard answer of "trust us, and everything will be o.k." (without any details). Thanks, but no thanks.

    October 12, 2012 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  15. Jason

    Please, the media wants this to be a close so bad. Poll 800 people here, 900 people there and now the polls are tight or Romney leading. Can't wait till election night when Obama has WON..

    October 12, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  16. Big Bob

    Tick, tick, tick.

    October 12, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  17. nicdy3

    People are more attuned to sound bites and grand performances worthy of an Oscar than they are to facts. Romney's debate performance, riddled with absolute lies, impressed people who are either too lazy or too ignorant to do the research on their own. Republicans have bet for months now that their target audiences fall into either the lazy or ignorant categories. Looks like their bets are paying off nationally.

    October 12, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  18. RobS

    You just can't believe anything cnn says about Polls these days, like last night they were trying to get away with stacking the polls, too bad for cnn CBS did a good and honest poll of the debate. shame on you cnn.

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  19. Mike

    Polls, polls, polls, blah, blah, blah. You're up one day, down the next.
    Sick of polls.
    Who cares what people think? The only thing that matters is what YOU think.
    As long as you get out and vote, and I don't care who you support, America is the winner.
    I'm backing Romney but it is the usual reason, lesser of two evils. I really don't see either one of these guys making my life any easier. Obama has taxed me more (I have the tax returns to prove it) but Romney probably won't change that much.
    I love kids, the elderly, those in the military, the environment, but I also value hard work and responsibility. I believe you should never get something for nothing. You want something then you need to work for it. And if you work hard nobody should be able to tell you that you cannot succeed, or try to hold you back from success.
    When is a candidate that preaches these values going to come forward? And don't say Obama is the guy because I truly believe he'd have us all on food stamps if he could. He is nothing more than a slick Chicago hustler.
    So I'll vote for Romney, not because I think he'll fix everything but because I've seen what the current guy has done and that is that he hasn't fixed anything. I'm at least willing to give someone else a shot.

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  20. oliver

    Liberty&JustForAll. Excellent question. I assume you voted for Bush twice then?

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  21. drewd13

    America is starting to understand!! Why should the hard working American be punished for his\her success! I'm tired of giving half of my income away to the undeserved!
    Romney/Ryan 2012

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  22. Eric

    This article is so desperate to paint a picture that the race is still close in Florida, they make a totally biased assertion that "Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error"... So 51-44% is a 7 point difference. I thought, wow, that's a large margin of error? Then at the very bottom... "The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points." Hellooooooo???

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  23. craynash

    Romney is ahead in Florida because this is the state that let Casey Anthony off, they are freaking retarded down there.

    October 12, 2012 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  24. HOLY TIGHTY WHITIES WILLARD

    I bet you republicans wish that you never threw CHARLIE CRIST under the bus.

    October 12, 2012 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  25. offreservation

    Biden throws the Intelligence Agencies under the bus on blaming them on the deaths in Libya. Maybe , just maybe he and the President missed that intelligence briefing because the've missed so many of the meetings!

    October 12, 2012 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
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