Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Socrates

    You have to be very retarded to vote for Romney if you are part of the 99%. Do you think he is going to help you or Wall Street. Maybe this 99% needs a president like Romney to wake up like the Europeans.

    October 12, 2012 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  2. Tom

    This is not newsworthy this is the same poll as the last month. In every poll the sampling error accounts for 50/50 thus there is literally no point in saying this poll means anything, it doesn't.

    October 12, 2012 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  3. pcalif

    The Republicans are putting out a poll a minute in favor of their guy in an effort to demoralize the Democratic base. What are the Dems doing about it? We know what is going on and the Dems need to grab a few polls and fight fire with fire! Go Dems!!!

    October 12, 2012 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  4. Fabjan

    "If a wise man debates with a fool, the fool only rages and laughs, and there is no peace and quiet." Proverbs 29:9

    October 12, 2012 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  5. fryuujin

    GOP the party of hate and no solutions other than get the rich richer. wow the country really is doomed with hate being the cause.

    October 12, 2012 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  6. High Way

    The news media are the king makers. Many at CNN can hardly hold back a slant for the GOP and it shows. They are not so neutral as we are lead to believe. The news media are a bunch of chickens when they don't corner the politicians directly to make him or her speak straight. Also, the news media becomes accomplices to the politicians when they give them free passes and air time to say just about anything. Enough said.

    October 12, 2012 11:57 am at 11:57 am |
  7. DougFr

    The problem for Romney is simply that he has to win ALL the swing states. Obama can focus on Ohio which he continues to poll well in. The floor for Obama is 2004 Kerry which means Ohio seals the deal. Romney is not taking any Kerry states.

    October 12, 2012 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  8. Elizabeth

    Romney has nothing new but the same Republican plutocratic meme that got us here in the first place. While he's busy sneering at the middle class he completely ignores the fact that some of the biggest companies in the US also paid no taxes or even had a negative tax balance.
    Take a look at this article, "30 Major Corporations Paid No Income Taxes In The Last Three Years, While Making $160 Billion" http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/11/03/360185/30-corporations-no-taxes/?mobile=nc

    Now, for the reality check: google each company name followed by the words "CEO salary" and then do it again followed by the word "layoff". Notice anything? Those companies with billions in profits, have CEOs making tens of millions of dollars and yet they're laying off workers. Here's one example: Dupont's CEO got a whopping 36% salary increase in 2010 for a total compensation of 11.3 MILLION dollars. Note also that Dupont has cut over 17,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession, while having the supreme audacity to ask for YOUR tax dollars as incentives to build new plants.
    Wake up, sheeple!

    October 12, 2012 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  9. ShawnDH

    ...and Obama is up in other Florida polls, so I guess we'll see. NEXT.

    October 12, 2012 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm |
  10. areolaman

    Mitt is full of xit (use chinese pronuncitation) His five boys were at the country club while Biden's son was fighting in Iraq. If I was Biden's son I would be proud of my dad.

    October 12, 2012 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm |
  11. farmwife1972

    President Obama will win re-election!!! Romney is a dangerous man! I am a Democrat and I am not a tax cheat! Romney is a tax cheat! He has alot to hide and it is not hard to find if you do a little digging and research! Wait until the debate next week!

    October 12, 2012 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  12. Las Vegas

    When congressman Ryan talk about our ambassador and 3 American death in Libya, Joe Biden up his animal head and open his dirty mouth to laughing, he really look like ugly ANIMALS

    October 12, 2012 12:03 pm at 12:03 pm |
  13. Pete

    That's the problem with Floridian seniors,they're mostly white, ignorent and racist,no matter what president Obama does for them he's toast simply because he's black,they don't trust him and Romneys,Ryans lies haven't helped either!It'll go down to whos plan in Medicare,SocialSecurity and just helping seniors is better and is legit because just like last night 90% of Ryans so called facts couldn't be proven either way because of no specifics,details,you can't run a country on face value ask Romney how he did in Massachusetts as governor,you won't see another republican as governor there for a long ,long time I assure yah because of him,republicans take note because that is a fact!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  14. David

    "The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president."

    If your above-description of Obama in the debate was truly accurate then Biden's showing was dynamic and piercing. Biden's showing included a scathing unmasking of the hidden agendas and outright distortions of Ryan and Romney. By comparison, Ryan appeared dazed and nervous and not prepared to counterpunch. As Biden said to Ryan, Romney, and the Republicans in the House and Senate, if you ignore reality and don't care about at least 47% of Americans, and just whine and block all efforts by Obama to help move forward the middle class and the country, "just get out of the way".

    October 12, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  15. Martha in CF

    Because of 1 debate now Romney is ahead in the polls. Are the American people stupid or what? To change your mind on one debate full of BS and lies by Romney. No,no, no--come on people we are much smarter than that.....Look to where Bush, Cheney led us and Romney said he would take us back there....... Sorry, not where I want to be!!!!!!
    I sometimes think this is media hype-they don't care for boring!!!!!!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  16. yeahalright

    So where's all the right wing loons to tell us how the polls are being cooked now?

    October 12, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  17. NamBrittee

    So what he is loosing in all the other ones

    October 12, 2012 12:05 pm at 12:05 pm |
  18. @anne

    Racist? HAHAHA! All the blacks are voting for Obama simply because he is black. They know nothing except he increases your gov't cheese and you get all these free handouts. THAT'S why you vote Obama. So be a slacker and sit at home and live off the tax payer foodstamps/obamaphones, while Obama is in office, but that is all about to change very soon, so don't get comfortable.

    October 12, 2012 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  19. Name

    Don't believe it.

    October 12, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  20. BYEObama

    Romney is not a tax cheat but quite a few in Obama's cabinet are.

    October 12, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  21. Nietodarwin

    Tax cheat, liar, flip-flopper, job outsourcer, delusional religious cult member.
    What a good president he would make. This country deserves the downfall that will come if we are so stupid, (made so by religion) as to elect this horrible guy to the White House. We need to get the American Taliban OUT of our government. The GOP is almost as bad of an enemy to the USA as the Taliban

    October 12, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  22. Bob

    If senior citizens in Florida think that Romney and Ryan are on their side, they better think again or they will be very disappointed. Time to start reading about positions and impacts to your lives folks.

    October 12, 2012 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  23. areolaman

    Paul Ryan looks like the evil senator from the film Edge of Darkness. He knows significantly less about the middle east than George Bush. Maybe he should visit the troops.

    October 12, 2012 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  24. 200 TON HAMMER

    wow florida must have alot of 1% percent familes in the top wealth of the usa,for them too vote for romney,i guess Massachusetts will vote against mitt romney because they know that they are not the 1% percent.florida please look at massachusetts history with mitt romney
    dont be boo boo the fool for mitt romney
    I dont have a plan too tell you until you just get me in the whitehouseitis syndrone
    just say no too boo boo the fool you suckersitis.and the health care voucher system is a mail order pyramid gimmicks and games,5 Trillion Dallors $5,000,000,000,000 Trillion Dallors??? sucker tax plans yeah mittens you cut cut cut the middle and upper middle class into tax black hole.

    October 12, 2012 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  25. sf

    i say have romney and ryan as president for these idiot red states..and we'll take obama/biden for the blue states...let's see how well the red states do by themselves while they kill each other over their stupid ideologies!

    October 12, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
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