Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Anonymous

    No headline last week about Romney's disrespectful, aggressive, super-mendacious debate attack? Yet V-P Biden is an "aggressor" now?

    October 12, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  2. farmwife1972

    Vote for Romney and there will be no more middle class, we will get into another war over in Syria, and our economy will be alot worse off. Right now home foreclosures are down, unemployment is down, the Dow is higher than when the President took office. I love America and Freedom and that is why I voted for Barack Obama. Like I have said if you want the government in your bedroom, vote for Romney. Think of how you would feel if your daughter was raped and she could not have abortion and be forced to carry that child, a girls the victim of incest forced to carry a child. Romney said he will make exceptions but he lies. His stand is strictly anti-abortion. I for one do not want anyone telling me what I can and cannot do with my body. It is between me and my God.

    October 12, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  3. Michael

    The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters. And with a sampling error of up to 5%, meaning the result spread could be off by as much as 10%. What a joke of a poll. And CNN makes a headline of the results. What does that tell you about CNN?

    October 12, 2012 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  4. Steve

    Seeing the debate between Obama and Romney was great. Romney was able to debunk the lies the President addmitted on a 60 min intervieiw about him.

    October 12, 2012 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  5. Robb

    I don't really care about polls. If you are in Washington State and asked voters in Eastern Washington any question it would come back strongly conservative and Republican. Ask it in the West, it's the exact opposite. I could care less what any voters think and how they are going to vote. I pity anyone who is swayed by a poll, regardless of which way it goes. Think for yourselves, folks. Stop being lemmings!!!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  6. hot air warrior

    Biden presented himself with confidence and authority. Ryan on the other hand repeated the Republican party line well, but that amounts to little substance and distorted facts. Ryan sounded like a bad recording ( broken record ) played over and over with little thought and depth.

    October 12, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  7. GurgylW

    No one in the right mind will vote for this TAX-CHEAT. Yes, on OBAMA12.

    October 12, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  8. Joe

    It will take more than 4 years to get the country out of the hole the Idiot from Texas left it in. Yet the Republicans refuse to OWN the mess they left the country in. Now they want back into the White House to continue the same failed policies. More tax breaks for the filthy rich and the gutting of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and American Health Care. If the old people are silly enough to vote for Romney, they will wake up without Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and American Health Care. They'll get a VOUCHER to pick the Insurance Company they want as their Health Carrier. Then pay out their eyeballs for medical attention!

    October 12, 2012 12:13 pm at 12:13 pm |
  9. shushe

    I don't know if animals are as worse as or worse than human beings. they don't lie and they are graceful.Don't compare us to human beings, we are not even as orderly as they are in the nature.

    October 12, 2012 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |
  10. S.R.K

    Ryan is so loveable. Americans just adore him and are willing to ignore his lies. Remeber the plant shut down lie at the convention. Also his lie about running the marathon on 10 minutes or something (I lied; his lie was different); on Medicare he is constantly lying. Yet Americans just adore this loveable kid who wil fry them and eat them for dinner, if elected. Just wait and see how he makes the rich, richer and the poor ..... whatever.

    October 12, 2012 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |
  11. Kar-ren Smith

    I'M sorry but guys if you trust Romney it's like trusting a cayote playing with your lambs. All Romney wants to do is make promises get into office, and screw everything up again, just as George bush did, he wants to continuation of George Bush because he believes in the same regime. We do need Obama back in office, Let him continue what he started, more people are working now than 4 yrs ago. If Romney gets in as President we're really going to be in trouble.

    October 12, 2012 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |
  12. Kurt

    I hope Romney wins the election. I think he'd be a good President.

    October 12, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  13. Jrdz

    Mittens & Ryan keep lying and feeding the undecided voters BS but yet they keep eating from the fox fake news buffet like a house on fire.

    October 12, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  14. thetruthandnothingbutthetruth

    November 6th. matters! Straight Democrat ticket!

    October 12, 2012 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  15. jose lopez

    Obama good. He let me and me 12 kids stay in country for free without worry of deport! Vote Obama!

    October 12, 2012 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  16. Jen

    so when romney and ryan change medicare and social security, don't start complaing. You get what you vote for.

    October 12, 2012 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  17. Larry L

    @Liberty&JustForAll

    Of course he's ahead. How can any sane person that loves America and Freedom vote this total failure of a President back in?
    -------------------------------------------------
    A person who won't vote for a pathological liar wouldn't vote for Romney or Lyin' Ryan. A person who doesn't want version 2.0 of the disastrous Bush economy would say no to "Rob-Me". Anybody who won't accept a candidate who makes wild promises but won't give any specifics would turn away from the spoiled rich boy. A person who expects real ideology rather than serial flip-flopping on the issues wouldn't consider Romney. A citizen who doesn't want to see Medicare and Social Security trashed would reject Romney. A person who doesn't want senseless war would say no to the draft-dodging "chicken-hawk". A voter who listens to something besides Fox News would know reality and vote to re-elect the President.

    October 12, 2012 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  18. JustMe

    In Florida they think Romney would do more to protect medicare? Are you freaking kidding me? It doesn't take a brainchild to google it and find out that they couldn't be more wrong.

    October 12, 2012 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  19. Name Ben

    Ray don t bring plan in the table for the last four years Obama show he care the middle class I am no taking risck to vote for Romney who change every day position because he knows the middle class is majority in us it s right now he knows it

    October 12, 2012 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  20. Anonymous

    Obama is ONE and DONE! this election is over for obama and they know it at the white house!

    October 12, 2012 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  21. Homiez

    Yo Yo! Flo-ri-da needz to wake up n vote for my man Obama! I live off deez gov't cheese he gives to me. Me n my homies all have obamaphones and double foodstamps becuz of Obama. We'z about to have free obamacare also! I could work, but why when I can live like dis? Ya heeeerd? Gotta go watch my home girl Judge Judy on tv now.

    October 12, 2012 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  22. Ossy

    Sometimes when I read stuffs on here,I feel sorry for people looking forward to vote for Romney ,.....Think of it,if the G issue Romney was possing just to raise cash,if it wasn't caught on tape,Would he say he apologize to the American people,of course not......He is just an opportunist looking to get whatever he wants regardless of not been caught in the middle and that's the last thing America needs today.....Obama 2012........Quote,am not against Republicans in anyway but the have the worse candidate for the job......American should not be viewed as a business of raising buying cars and making profit....is a matter of people and we need someone with real values and honest to carry us along......Quote....am not saying Obama has been the best president in history but is far much better than when he took office and Romney is not the answer we need.....Not at all.....

    October 12, 2012 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  23. badmoon

    Picking candidates solely due to how they looked in a debate, rather than any understanding of the topics, is comparable to voting to how a PACC ad makes you feel. This is avery dangerous trend and one can see this happening historically in Europe and other continents. You may as well turn the sound off during the deabte and choosing your winner and vote based on the appearance.

    October 12, 2012 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  24. Anonymous

    There is no way that obama wins a second term..he is getting creamed in the polls and it will only continue to get worse for him..he has nothing to run on except failure!

    October 12, 2012 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  25. Bates

    Great to see the leftist rats in denial.

    October 12, 2012 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
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