Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. Anonymous

    After watching the VP debate last night I cannot imagine how anyone can say Ryan won. Biden had a lot more facts and command of the topics. Ryan just repeated the republican mantra and many times dodged the questions. I just hope Obama performs as well as Biden did and everything will be ok. Maybe Biden should coach Obama for the next debate. I was proud of listening to Biden.

    October 12, 2012 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  2. tkinil

    I find it interesting overnight just a few blocks I must drive thru to get to my home (these are blocks of straight up middle/lower class), just overnight the Ryan/Romney signs have sprung up on nearly every lawn. Nearly EVERY one. This is a lovely long line of middle class houses. Block after block. They were NOT there yesterday. Guess a lot of folks made up their mind after last night's debate.

    October 12, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  3. tkinil

    I find it interesting overnight just a few blocks I must drive thru to get to my home (these are blocks of straight up middle/lower class), just overnight the Ryan/Romney signs have sprung up on nearly every lawn. Nearly EVERY one. This is a lovely long line of middle class houses. Block after block. They were NOT there yesterday. Guess a lot of folks made up their mind after last night's debate.

    October 12, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  4. Craig Adams MD

    I hope Floridians understand that it is clear that Romney will destroy medicare. A vote for Romney will destroy seniors.

    October 12, 2012 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  5. John

    This poll was taken right after the debate. Romney's bump is already fading fast in national polls as people learn more about his flip-flops in the debate and since. By next week's polls, Obama will likely be back a head in Florida.

    October 12, 2012 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  6. Liz

    Great Romney, is Presidential, smart, Obama is an embarrassment to the country. He partied while our Ambassador and our troops were killed. I hope the election will oust this fraud. He is so arrogant he refuses to unseal his school transcripts. He wants us to rehire him? The past 4 years he has failed at everything. He has put us through h–.

    October 12, 2012 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  7. Critical Thinking

    Onto VA, then OH. Start packing Obama's and Biden's. Looks like you are relocating in Jan.

    October 12, 2012 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  8. The Avenger

    If Romney wins this election after the complete mess that the republicans left this country in, then the American people deserve what they will get under Romney. This was the same person who spoke with great disdain about 47 percent of Americans, the same person who wanted to let the auto industry go bankrupt, the same person who said to let the housing foreclosure run its course. This man doesn’t care about the middle class he is a typical republican who is only looking out for the best interest of his rich friends.

    October 12, 2012 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  9. vj

    means nothing, Romney can win FLA, VA and NC but if he goes 0for 3 in Mich, Oh, and PA he is going to lose

    October 12, 2012 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  10. TY

    Dont matter Romney will not WIN

    October 12, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  11. Ricke1949

    Biden was abrasive and interrupted Ryan. This was not a debate but an assault. Joe is a thug. Anyone who can laugh and smirk when his opponent is discussing people being killed is...............sick.

    October 12, 2012 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  12. drc

    Biden was his usual bunglin, unprofessional, embarrassment of a career politician last night. He should have been put to pasture LONG ago and made to get a real job.

    Sorry – I never voted for BUSH, but was never stupid enough to have and certainly WILL not vote for the current occupiers in the White House. Romney/Ryan is not a dream ticket either but get rid of the lying/blaming/useless unexperienced King Obamma and his arrogant questionable self.

    October 12, 2012 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  13. works4me

    Florida?? this is from a state that allowed a medicare fraud criminal buy his way into the Governorship. He was a Republican as well. Lies greed and collusion is the name of the game with the GOP

    October 12, 2012 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  14. sarge

    After last night's rout of Ryan, watch it spring back!

    October 12, 2012 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  15. packerfans

    Vote for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan on Nov 6 2012!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  16. Martha in CF

    To Liz-–If the President were to live his life and plan his day with your thinking, he would be curled up in a ball in the Oval Office!!!!!!!!!!! If anyone is a fraud it is Romney who has lied, cheated his way to where he is today. What about your man Romney who came out before the happenings in Benzasai was happening?
    Obama has NOT failed at everything. He has done pretty well for the mess he stepped into and the obstruction done by the redumblicans in congress. Romney said he is taking us back to that. Sorry, don't want to go there. Also, what about a womans rights which have been fought so hard for-he will be getting rid of them too............

    October 12, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  17. Dylan

    I live in Tampa and it is extremly hard to tell how people feel here......In the Tampa area it is heavy Obama support but in areas such as Pasco country it is heavy Romney......These polls are becoming a waste of time because it is just too hard to figure out who will actually vote, who actually has more support, and if the pollsters are biased either way.....

    October 12, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  18. Betty

    I have been deeply disturbed about this election the Republicans are so desperate to win this election they will do anything to get there ie: trying to suppres the vote, claiming President Obama fudged the numbers on the unemployment numbers, the racist remarks calling him a lazy President and its spread over to the Senate races with Brown saying Warren wasn't native american because of her skin color I being Native American was deeply offended by that they(Republicans)true colors are really coming out this President has not been respected from the start but yet again you have never heard him talk about this so with this said please vote Obam/Biden if they are talikng this way during the election could you imagine if Romney/Ryan win what its really going to be like wake up america let our voices be heard enough of the rich getting richer Obama has us on the right track lets continue this path no more lies from Romney who be flip flop day to day Obama should drill him on Tuesday the next debate Obama/Biden 2012!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  19. Rob

    GAME OVER!! So goes Florida, so goes the election. 7 point lead is huge.. With so many voters in NY and CA going Obama, its tremendously lopsided those states are 2/3 to 70% Obama.. That population in those states is skewing the polling on a nationwide basis.. Really, Romney is ahead even Further in Electoral votes. He's going to get Wisconsin and Iowa after they way Biden behaved last night and maybe even Ohio. If that happens, this becomes a landslide. Maybe you libs dont get it, those of us who believe you need to be respectful to others were very turned off by Biden last night. He lost some of the independents. He only fired up his people already voting for him. In the end, Romney gained undecideds and Ryan did the same by looking Presidential and sticking to his 5 point plan.

    October 12, 2012 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  20. TheTraveler

    To all you senior citizens in Florida, and those that will be seniors soon, enjoy your vouchers ... You think Romney is looking out for you? Just ask all the AMERICANS he put out of their jobs, placed in unemployment lines and put in heath care waiting lists. Oh, by the way, we, the taxpayers, also paid off their federally insured retirement funds too...

    Think about it at the polls.

    October 12, 2012 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  21. Kris

    The People in Florida are CRAZY if they vote for Romney/Ryan....WOW! Their Medicare/Medicad depend on Obama winning. Wake up Florida, don't let this happen to you.

    October 12, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  22. noel

    Liar Liar Craig Adams. I hope that Floridians understand that another 5 trillion in spending under obama will break the piggy bank and change our country into a chaotic nightmare, that only those who lived in cities during the Great Depression could even begin to understand! We simply can't stay on the socialist's path any longer and expect to have a chance to correct our economy/deficit!!!
    OBAMANOS!!!

    October 12, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  23. lnd72

    I'm glad to see the Romney/Ryan message getting through. Obama and Biden keep saying anything they think voters want to hear. If we elect them for another 4 years, they will spend this country into the ground.

    Democrats will blame Bush for spending money on 2 wars but ignore the fact that debt went up 4.8 trillion in Bush's 8 years while it increased 5.4 trillion in less than 4 years under Obama.

    October 12, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  24. Mark

    I think it's been a while since CNN updated the electoral vote tracker map. They should do so, in light of this poll from Florida, and especially in light of the presidential debate. That was nine days ago. Get with it guys! I'd be VERY surprised if not one state changed as a result.

    October 12, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  25. The Avenger

    Most of you republicans out there suffer from Amnesia you guys seem to forget the shape the economy was in when Obama came into office; well let me remind you it was in the worse shape since the great depression. We were loosing around 800,000 jobs a month, the banking sector, and Wall Street were on the verge of collapsing. To put it bluntly we were on the brink of another great depression. And you republicans now want the keys back to return to the same policies that got us in this mess. No one and I repeat no one was going to completely turn around this economy in three years.

    October 12, 2012 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13