October 12th, 2012
03:40 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls: Tight race in Florida, New Hampshire

(CNN) - New polls in two presidential battleground states - Florida and New Hampshire - show the race for the White House is locked up there.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney's slight advantage over President Barack Obama among likely voters is within the sampling error of the American Research Group polls in both states.

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In Florida, Romney is at 49% and Obama stands at 46%, the poll, released Friday, shows. Romney's advantage in New Hampshire is four points, 50% to 46%.

Both surveys are within the polls' sampling errors of plus or minus four points. The surveys were conducted from early this week through Thursday - entirely after the first presidential debate last week. Thursday night was the vice presidential debate.

A separate poll of likely Florida voters conducted in the same time frame found a larger advantage for Romney which is right on the edge of the sampling error: 51% for Romney and 44% for Obama in the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll released Friday morning.

But a poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, found Obama at 48% and Romney at 47% - all tied up.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls, comprised of those three samples, finds Romney at 49% and Obama at 46%. The Poll of Polls is an average so has no calculable sampling error.

In the Granite State, the latest ARG poll shows the race leaning in Romney's favor, while their last survey - conducted before last week's presidential debate - showed the race leaning towards Obama, although both margins were within the sampling error. Friday's sample showed Romney at 50% and Obama at 46%, while the September 25-27 poll had Romney at 45% and Obama at 50%.

A WMUR Granite State poll released Tuesday showed Obama's one-time 15 point lead over Romney had shrunk to a six point advantage within the sampling error. That survey was conducted partially before and partially after the presidential debate.

Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is the largest prize of the nine states currently rated as "toss ups" on the CNN Electoral Map. New Hampshire has four electoral votes. Obama won both in 2008.

The ARG poll in Florida included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone between October 8 and 11. The ARG poll in New Hampshire also included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone, and was conducted between October 9 and 11.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • New Hampshire • President Obama
soundoff (34 Responses)
  1. HellNoTObama

    Biden the clown last night says he didn't vote for the 2 wars – lies, then smirks. Biden the clown says they weren't informed of Libya – lies, throws Hillary under the bus. The Obama campaign keeps digging itself deeper and deeper. This Libya coverup is going to explode in the days to come –
    Thank you Biden for showing America what a arrogant, smirking, rude, condescending fool you really are.
    Romney/Ryan – Brains, experience and leadership for America 2102!!

    October 12, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  2. David1720

    Biden could have put a green wig on last night and played the Joker – right along side Obama's Big Bird National TV ads – what a sorry joke these two are

    October 12, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  3. Larry in Houston

    I suspect florida will end up going for romney – btw- Thank You Ronda in Houston !! For Your Comment !!
    @ Esther : LOL you tickle me – If your party wins, believe me, every voter – and I mean every registered Voter will be holding their feet to the fire, then robme & lyin ryan will end up being one termers. You better believe that the independents / the democrats / and even some republicans will remember what happened 4 yrs from now.If your party puts anybody ( and I mean Anybody) that makes Less than 100K per yr, per household in a VISE, like they did during the "bush" years, ( not to mention the reagan years) Believe me, the voters will never , and I mean Never Vote for a republican ever Again.And another thing : neither candidate can or will bring back those lost "factory" Jobs, if you believe that, Ive got a huge lake in Arizona that I will sell you. (those factor jobs are gone forever) (as long as we keep importing from those other countries, that is paying cheap labor, and not putting some kind of Tarriff on the products that come here)

    May the Best Man Win – 2012
    Hillary – 2016

    October 12, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  4. kaycee

    Romney is d better candidate and should win come november 6.

    October 12, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  5. joe

    anyone who votes for rommey/ryan should have their head examined! rommey is a total filp flopper and ryan is nothing less then a smart-ass narcissist..

    October 12, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  6. toni

    wow, just go vote. the message is clear. if you want division it's roomney and this nation will be divided. if you want unity then vote obama and try to stay together. this world is falling apart. i know what i'm getting with obama. i can't trust roomney. i'm scared for my kids when someone says they don't care about half the nation. cnn is becoming fox news slowly.

    October 12, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  7. Ronda in Houston,TX

    Early voting in Texas starts October 22nd. We will be busing people to the polls!

    October 12, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  8. Namehardball

    Four died and this administration lied.

    October 12, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  9. n

    So Kaycee, you believe in Romney the lier and his sidekick with no core value? So . . . what dose this say about your character as a person you have so much hate for this administration that you would compromise your integrity? Oh wait, that's right, you have none.

    October 12, 2012 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
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