October 12th, 2012
03:40 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls: Tight race in Florida, New Hampshire

(CNN) - New polls in two presidential battleground states - Florida and New Hampshire - show the race for the White House is locked up there.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney's slight advantage over President Barack Obama among likely voters is within the sampling error of the American Research Group polls in both states.

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In Florida, Romney is at 49% and Obama stands at 46%, the poll, released Friday, shows. Romney's advantage in New Hampshire is four points, 50% to 46%.

Both surveys are within the polls' sampling errors of plus or minus four points. The surveys were conducted from early this week through Thursday - entirely after the first presidential debate last week. Thursday night was the vice presidential debate.

A separate poll of likely Florida voters conducted in the same time frame found a larger advantage for Romney which is right on the edge of the sampling error: 51% for Romney and 44% for Obama in the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll released Friday morning.

But a poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, found Obama at 48% and Romney at 47% - all tied up.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls, comprised of those three samples, finds Romney at 49% and Obama at 46%. The Poll of Polls is an average so has no calculable sampling error.

In the Granite State, the latest ARG poll shows the race leaning in Romney's favor, while their last survey - conducted before last week's presidential debate - showed the race leaning towards Obama, although both margins were within the sampling error. Friday's sample showed Romney at 50% and Obama at 46%, while the September 25-27 poll had Romney at 45% and Obama at 50%.

A WMUR Granite State poll released Tuesday showed Obama's one-time 15 point lead over Romney had shrunk to a six point advantage within the sampling error. That survey was conducted partially before and partially after the presidential debate.

Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is the largest prize of the nine states currently rated as "toss ups" on the CNN Electoral Map. New Hampshire has four electoral votes. Obama won both in 2008.

The ARG poll in Florida included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone between October 8 and 11. The ARG poll in New Hampshire also included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone, and was conducted between October 9 and 11.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • New Hampshire • President Obama
soundoff (34 Responses)
  1. Victoria

    A couple of weeks ago the Republicans were saying how the polls are biased since Obama was winning....are they going to be saying that now?

    October 12, 2012 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
  2. DEMOCRATS ARE IN FACT THE BIGGEST TAX CHEATS AROUND. Timothy Geithner THE PERFECT EXAMPLE.

    Democrats screaming republicans are lying while they themselves LIE.

    October 12, 2012 03:52 pm at 3:52 pm |
  3. Rick McDaniel

    The choice is clear.........a dictator, in the form of Obama, or freedom in the form of Romney.

    Your choice, America.

    October 12, 2012 03:54 pm at 3:54 pm |
  4. AL in West Palm Beach

    600 people can't tell you how I am going to vote this Nov.

    oh, and that poll counts.

    October 12, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  5. n

    Can you say, we know who to call to have the numbers line up the way we want at any given time? We the media work for the hidden powers that be and they command us to throw Romney a bone because they are tire of him and the Repub. crying and complaining to them about why is the black guy getting all the play. This is political pro wrestling and soon the future presidents of these United States of America will be like the Queen of England, no more then just a figure head. Romney will be it's prototype, and Plutocracy will govern.

    October 12, 2012 04:00 pm at 4:00 pm |
  6. Morning1Su,

    Americans remember what the Republicans had done to us four years ago. President Obama against all odds brought us back with a steady hands. Remember military are tired of fighting other countries wars. The Republicans will put us right back in fighting. We cannot afford another war and the soldiers are weary. Use common sense. Senior citizens protect your Social Security and Medicare and vote Democrat. Don'f fall for the smooth talking Romney and Ryan. Remember the Republicans in Congress had not allowed any policies through. Please Americans the housing market is coming back, the stock market is doing fine and the unemployment percentage is going down. Give President Obama another chance. I am very afraid that people will chose the wrong party and Americans will suffer again. Please don't shoot yourselves in your foot.

    October 12, 2012 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  7. Esther

    In 90 minutes Mitt Romney change the US campaign style and the future Presidential election! I am sure Romney/Ryan tickets will restore the American Dream and put back our country in business in 2013!!!
    This is the country of opportunities.... after months of personal attacks ad not ideas about how America will be better, Romney got his opportunity on 10/03/12 and in 90 minutes the american people understood who say the true and who have the better ideas.

    October 12, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  8. Esther

    I am proud of Florida voter and my vote is on the way for Romney!

    October 12, 2012 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  9. Ronda in Houston,TX

    As a female voter, there is only 1 male candiate that I trust and that's President Barack Obama. His ACA maybe called OBAMACARE, but that's because he cares. Women rights are a big issue for women, but not to Romney or Ryan. This is why with the Romney/Ryan ticket, they lose the majority of the woman's vote.

    October 12, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  10. Pete

    @Rick mcDaniels,you do know Romney was a fascist as bishop for his Mormon group ,taking away children from single women or excommunication from their church .Plus not letting anyone shake his hand as governor of Massachusetts while having a seperate private elevator.Talk about psychological problems,Romneys tops the cake with his pathelogical lying too,he's been at it since childhood,they taught him being a Mormon that its alright to lie for their lord and their protection,read up Rick yah might learn something about Romney we all know,he's not right guy!!Hey also ask the deceased Navy Seals best friend how he met Mitt,Ann when they just walked into a party a couple of years ago and introducing himself as Mitt Romney and he's running for president,told him that 4 times in one hour ,he said Romneys a strange dude,almost robotic.And how the mother of that same Navy Seal didn't want Romney using her deceased son as a political tool against Pres.Obama because she didn't trust Romney !!Facts do hurt buddy,you can get yours if you read properly,get yourself away from Fox,Limbaugh,they're dangerous for your health too!!

    October 12, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  11. LogicRules

    Watch Republicans now embrace the polls, unlike prior when they chastised them...flip flop like their fearless leader

    October 12, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  12. Name

    Im a female...i vote romney/ryan

    October 12, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  13. No Tax Returns No Vote

    @Pete: Thank you.

    October 12, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  14. Anonymous

    The polls have been here, there, and everywhere this past two weeks or so. So, what is the real story with the polls: the media dictating the "story" i.e. their version of how they want things to be - or are the polls dictating the real story? I'm thinking the former. There are still two debates left and this is exactly what we saw during the primaries: one candidate up –then down– keeping everyone entertained enough to follow the little round media pundit talking ball to it's ratings conclusion.

    October 12, 2012 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  15. Four and The Door

    Too bad Obama can't bring his high-paid speech writers or Hollywood Producers to the debates with him. This is where Obama/ Biden 2012 falls apart. Then again, that's why we have them. Bring the politicians out from behind their billion dollar ad campaigns. Romney/ Ryan 2012 will surge right through election day to a win.

    October 12, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  16. Canchange

    Finally I see what I think of Joe Biden, he act like real GRYM ( he act like BUFFON ) like a child can't control him self, remains me when I was little!

    October 12, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  17. No Tax Returns No Vote

    @Esther: Speak for yourself and not all Americans.

    October 12, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  18. Canchange

    Paul Ryan act like professional! The GRYM act like BUFFON, like BATMAN movie joker or the pinguin.thanks

    October 12, 2012 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  19. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Like a lot of elderly seniors in FL who watch Fox foreign owned media, and are on social security; they want vouchers, an end to veterans benefits, and an end to socialism?

    October 12, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  20. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Paul Ryan acted like he was clueless. He refused to stand up to his bagger legislation and his votes against the American people.

    October 12, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  21. nocas

    How can women vote for R&R?!!! they vote against equal pay for women, Ryan yesterday signal they would revoke Row vs Wade, this is war on women. What are you thinking?!! Do you pay for your birth control? no, not in full, why not since that is why R&R want? If R&R are elected women that vote for them should be payed less than man, and should have to pay for all their reproductive illness! Don't be hypocrite, that is your choice, than you should do it!!

    October 12, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  22. Phil

    I am an Australian. Australia has been a strong ally for the USA for as long as I can remember. Australians follow US politics very carefully because of the impact it has on us and the rest of the world. Recent opinion polls here show that NINE percent of Australians want Romney to win. Why is the percentage so low? Its because we saw the damage that the last Republican President did to the global economy and the chaos that he created in world affairs. The other thing that we find staggering is that anyone could vote for Mitt Romney when he has held several different positions on any major area of policy that one cares to consider. How could anyone trust this man with their future??

    October 12, 2012 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  23. Gary Inman

    This old guy votes for Obama/Biden. Willard and the kid are are scaring the hell out of the seniors.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    October 12, 2012 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  24. nocas

    More, last week the arrogant and dishonest Romney kept interrupting, even told the moderator what would be the rules...today Biden is rude??!!! You repubs have no character like your candidates. Ryan asked twice for stimulus money for his state that would help create jobs (he wrote 2 letters, so there's no deny it) and now he criticizes the stimulus!!!!! HYPOCRITE

    October 12, 2012 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  25. Anonymous

    Morning1Su,

    Americans remember what the Republicans had done to us four years ago.
    -------------–

    Apparently not. At least not to those now being polled. Guess lying while debating turns most Americans on to the point of foolishness. Don't know what they think Romney will do should he become president ... I doubt Republicans actually care. Then again, they never cared when GW was president, either.

    October 12, 2012 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
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