Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona
October 13th, 2012
04:35 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona

(CNN) - A new poll of likely voters in Arizona shows the race for the White House is a close contest in the state.

President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.

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With 11 electoral votes, the state has been considered to be leaning in Romney's favor.

The state's two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.

Obama is the heavy favorite among the state's Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney's 10%.

Since 1952, the state has gone to the Republican candidate in every presidential race except 1996. President Bill Clinton won the state that year by a three-point margin - 47% to 44% - over Bob Dole, while Reform Party candidate Ross Perot and others picked up about 9% of the vote.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona won the state's presidential vote in 2008 by nine points and in 2004, President George W. Bush won the state by 11 points.

Statewide, Arizona sent two Republican senators to Washington and has a Republican governor. The state's congressional delegation includes five Republicans and three Democrats.

The race between Democrat Richard Carmona and six-term GOP Rep. Jeff Flake to replace retiring Sen. John Kyl is also close, with likely voters split 44% to 40%. Former President Clinton lent some star power to the race when he campaigned for Carmona this past week.

The Rocky Mountain poll included 523 registered voters reached by phone between October 4 and 10, entirely after the first presidential debate. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Also on the CNN Political Ticker

– Rocker to campaign for Obama

– Shot fired at Obama campaign office

– Poll: Romney ahead in key state

– Obama takes supporters out to dinner

– Romney, Ryan buoyed by debates


Filed under: 2012 • Arizona • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (52 Responses)
  1. doug

    If Mexico is home and you want free Obamaphone, vote the party of hate and intolerance for opposing views. The Democrat party of today is identical to the Democrat party that started the klan, just watch the VP debate. They offer nothing but hate, lies, and a desire to harm every American who doesn't march to their Statist contradiction to the constitution party.

    October 13, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  2. Eugene9

    Gotta love it. Jan Brewer country turning blue.

    October 13, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  3. doug

    C'mon Democrats Denver again? You faked an attack on your dnc base in that city last time, this time you should have chosen a different city.

    JFK was the last Democrat who had moments of truth and decency, the last Democrat to not wish harm on any and every American who doesn't agree with their statist ideology.

    You know why it is so dangerous to drive in any Democrat dominated area, there is a Biden behind the wheel of 3 out of 4 cars, this total disregard for the lives of others makes 'dem more dangerous than Ted Kennedy's hobby drivers.

    One of the major differences in this election is that Romney and Ryan would never want to harm or punish an American just because of their political views, Obama and Biden do, in fact Obama has admitted to it during an interview on Univision in 2010. Read what Democrat type here at CNN, it's the whole party, if it quacks like a National Socialist duck...

    October 13, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  4. Anonymous

    Looks like Biden has put things back on track.

    October 13, 2012 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  5. Rick

    Looks like Biden has put things back on track. Obama should cement it tuesday.

    October 13, 2012 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  6. Mark R

    Changing demographics will surprise a lot of people come election day. Arizona may flip to the Democrats at both the top of the ballot and senate – stay tuned. More surprises to come.

    October 13, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  7. Welfare Mittens

    This is good news but the only thing that matters is what happens on election day...

    October 13, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  8. Zenger Folkman

    Arizona?? This great news for the president!!

    October 13, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  9. kat

    How can bho lead Arizona after the way he treated Gov. Brewer?

    October 13, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  10. Thomas

    Please forward this to John McCain,

    Q: What's the only thing worse than heading to bed after your favorite team just suffered the indignity of losing the biggest lead in a postseason elimination game in baseball history?
    A: Waking up to find that, due to a "stunningly stupid" error by a third party, World Series tickets for your favorite team will be going on sale soon.
    No, this is not a joke !

    October 13, 2012 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  11. Mark

    Arizona is full of radicals, they vote Republican.

    October 13, 2012 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  12. James

    Arizona resident here, I voted for John McCain last time around. Today those who represent the Republican Party like Mike Huckabee and others on Fox News make me sick. Among other things Romney's lack of commitment on any position and his little to no understanding of the trials of the less fortunate sway my vote towards Obama. Flame me if you want but a lot of the people I've talked to here feel the same. I will be voting early this year.

    October 13, 2012 05:41 pm at 5:41 pm |
  13. tee27

    We will take the 11 electoral votes !

    October 13, 2012 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  14. Randy, San Francisco

    Hispanic and women voters will paint Arizona blue for President Obama! The GOP/Tea Party will pay the price of intolerance and hate for many years to come.

    October 13, 2012 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  15. mcskadittle

    you would really vote for a man who said half the country isn't worth caring about? you had better hope that you and your family are not in the 47%

    October 13, 2012 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  16. TEXASTEX1985

    This doesn't suprise me at all. Romny is a typical Massachusetts liberal type and Ryan is a milktoast.

    Whats to like about these two?

    These are not your Ronald Reagan Republicans.

    October 13, 2012 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  17. ColoradoJoe

    amazing that american people want american soldiers doing most (if not all) the patrolling in Afghanistan instead of using the trained Afghanistan forces. As for Iran, what we don't need is another mislabeled WMD by more republicans.

    October 13, 2012 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  18. independent FL

    It would b a disaster for romney if he loses AZ

    October 13, 2012 06:18 pm at 6:18 pm |
  19. arrowrod

    Interesting poll numbers for Arizona. Historically, Republican, but somehow leaning Obama.
    If this turns out to be a blowout for Romney, I am going on a one man tirade against the media.

    October 13, 2012 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  20. Aaron

    Yeah right! This is beyond absurd. Romney will take AZ by 10 at least.

    October 13, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  21. azwi

    If Obama & Carmona should be victorious, they'd have John McCain and his warmongering views and speeches to thank

    October 13, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  22. Name

    Wouldn't it be nice if the Dems could win Arizona on the top of the ticket and in the Senate race!

    October 13, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  23. Valentina

    This is a BS poll. At least something to divert attention from Obama's spiraling downward.

    October 13, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  24. Palu

    Can we get the sampling numbers please...D/R/I? Sounds like an outlier poll to me.

    October 13, 2012 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  25. 1nsite

    This shouldn't be this close. No Democrat has won since 1952 except Clinton. Poll was after the debates, too. Not good for Romney.

    October 13, 2012 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
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