Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona
October 13th, 2012
04:35 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona

(CNN) - A new poll of likely voters in Arizona shows the race for the White House is a close contest in the state.

President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.

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With 11 electoral votes, the state has been considered to be leaning in Romney's favor.

The state's two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.

Obama is the heavy favorite among the state's Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney's 10%.

Since 1952, the state has gone to the Republican candidate in every presidential race except 1996. President Bill Clinton won the state that year by a three-point margin - 47% to 44% - over Bob Dole, while Reform Party candidate Ross Perot and others picked up about 9% of the vote.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona won the state's presidential vote in 2008 by nine points and in 2004, President George W. Bush won the state by 11 points.

Statewide, Arizona sent two Republican senators to Washington and has a Republican governor. The state's congressional delegation includes five Republicans and three Democrats.

The race between Democrat Richard Carmona and six-term GOP Rep. Jeff Flake to replace retiring Sen. John Kyl is also close, with likely voters split 44% to 40%. Former President Clinton lent some star power to the race when he campaigned for Carmona this past week.

The Rocky Mountain poll included 523 registered voters reached by phone between October 4 and 10, entirely after the first presidential debate. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Also on the CNN Political Ticker

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– Poll: Romney ahead in key state

– Obama takes supporters out to dinner

– Romney, Ryan buoyed by debates


Filed under: 2012 • Arizona • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (52 Responses)
  1. Gurgyl

    Doesn't Arizona know of 47% comment???Eliminating SS, Medicare, healthcare, planned parenthood??? By Bain-Capital...

    October 13, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  2. Name jay haro

    Latino's will give Obama this state

    October 13, 2012 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  3. sirous

    RM polls' results were always distant from other poll results in Arizona. There are two descriptions. It means that they are following an absolutely different methodology in their sample selection. I am really looking forward to seeing the election results to find out wether or not they were right.

    October 13, 2012 07:17 pm at 7:17 pm |
  4. Name jay haro

    Latino's will win AZ for obama

    October 13, 2012 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  5. DK

    Biden did it. Biden's debate performance was an epic reminder that the Romney-Ryan plan to gut the middle and working classes to cut taxes for their billionaire friends is wrong for America.

    Expect other polls to start going Obama's way as well.

    October 13, 2012 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  6. Dan B

    This is ridiculous. If Obama wins AZ I would be shocked. If all polls were like this one, Minnesota would be competitive too.

    October 13, 2012 07:26 pm at 7:26 pm |
  7. Gurgyl

    Arizona–god bless us all, could we ask this pathetic nasty animal mitt Romney to SHOW TEN YEARS OF HIS TAXES????????? Please. Cayman island, Bermuda, Swiss money, please..... Drive all congress animals out with mitt–drive evil out–let nation benefit. God bless!!!!

    October 13, 2012 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  8. No Tax Returns No Vote

    Looks like McCain has no clout in AZ. Romney can thank himself and the Governer of Az. for their racist Latino comments and racial profiling.

    October 13, 2012 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  9. zaggs

    Interesting to note. Looking at Real Clear Politics collection of Arizona polls, only 3 put Obama ahead. All three were done by the Behavioral Research Center. Not shockingly BRC does not list their demographics. But since the last 3 polls before the BRC go: Romney +9, Romney +4 and Romney +10, its not as close as CNN would like you to believe.

    October 13, 2012 07:41 pm at 7:41 pm |
  10. Wire Palladin, S. F

    Whether Mittens wins or loses this time, we are getting closer to the end of the GOP.

    October 13, 2012 07:54 pm at 7:54 pm |
  11. SP

    Wow, this could really change the entire election

    October 13, 2012 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  12. ThinkAgain: Hey, networks, fact-check the debates in real-time and put it in the crawl!

    Dems, Independents and thinking Republicans, all you have to do November 6 is vote for President Obama. Our current 32 straight months of private sector growth will continue, we'll be investing in OUR country, we'll be closer to being out of Afghanistan, and the economy will continue to recover, with long-term, sustainable prosperity for 100% of Americans as an attainable goal.

    Obama/Biden 2012 = The only sane choice

    October 13, 2012 08:17 pm at 8:17 pm |
  13. dnc

    This is amazing, considering how much Obama has screwed over Arizona....... Ignorance is fixable...Stupid is forever....

    October 13, 2012 08:27 pm at 8:27 pm |
  14. Craig RB

    It's amazing that it's so close in Arizona. If the Republicans had picked someone else, let's say John Huntsman, there would be a huge spread in favor of the Republican. In fact, it's very close elsewhere with Obama ahead in swing states which says that people don't really like and "get" Romney. He just so strange.

    October 13, 2012 09:09 pm at 9:09 pm |
  15. 200 TON HAMMER

    as a former homeless vet I was treated with dignity and respect in phoenix arizonia I am no longer homeless vet thanks too the pro military vet support in arizonia like senator john MCcain and sheriff joe support for homeless vets and I am a african american male served on two diffrent branches of the military

    October 13, 2012 09:19 pm at 9:19 pm |
  16. Kathleen Farrell

    There is hope for Arizona! Between the crazy governor and the nutcase sheriff in town I guess the citizen are figuring it out. Congratulations.

    October 13, 2012 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  17. AmericanCitizenX

    It will be a shock and awe wake up call to the Party of NO that they are really out of touch with the American public when Obama wins Arizona.

    October 13, 2012 10:17 pm at 10:17 pm |
  18. edkez

    Now that's a shock. We'll have to see a couple of more polls to know for sure if the trend holds.

    October 13, 2012 11:52 pm at 11:52 pm |
  19. sahara

    Well, Mitt is a wicked man, making wicked statement, my family use to be Republican, my mother loved Maccain and talks about been a Republican, but in this cycle, we are all voting Obama why? Mitt Romney is simply not what our party needs, he is anti working people, he never cared about the very poor, written 47% of Americans off, fighting everyday to move our jobs to China and come here in Ohio to criticize Obama that made it impossible for a tire company to steal American market, at that time, Mitt Criticized the President for standing against China, I have already voted and guess who, Obama and Sherod. Am sorry Mitt, you will never stand for me in the white house. My mother and father just voted for Obama, first time to vote Democrat.

    October 14, 2012 01:09 am at 1:09 am |
  20. john

    This is nothing to see here. My wife, an independent, participated in this poll. They called and promoted carmona and Obama, than they asked who are you going to vote for. That probably explains why its 42-44, where is the other 16%. My wife didn't feel like having an argument, and said she had decided who she was voting for. They were extremely biased.

    October 14, 2012 01:11 am at 1:11 am |
  21. RGD

    It appears Arizona is already purple state and trending for Democratic party just in time for 2012 election due to dumb anti-immigration laws causing legal Latino voters to be alienated (pardon the pun) by GOP party in large numbers. Latinos will also ensure that President Obama win Florida, thus knocking out Mitt Romney's chances for election for good. GOP leaders have only themselves to blame for tolerating hard core racists including certain Tea Party congressmen past 2 years.

    October 14, 2012 01:12 am at 1:12 am |
  22. Gerard

    All Republicans who make less that $250,000 a year are, in essence, Log Cabin Republicans: voting against their own interests.

    October 14, 2012 01:24 am at 1:24 am |
  23. Kaelen Johnson

    The first presidential candidate to mention that their number one priority if elected is to find ways to get congressmen and Senators to work together will win the election. What good is making the economy the most important issue if there is no cooperation in the House and Senate to get any deals done.
    The first candidate to say, if elected, day one I’m going to lead the American people in a full on shake down of the congress and senate. Every single member that refuses to compromise will be publicly shunned until they are broken. Uncompromising Democrats and Republicans should be made to feel embarrassed and humiliated for holding up progress in Washington. Thats what we want to hear i the next debate.
    THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS AS PRESIDENT SHOULD BE TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO DO BUSINESS!!!

    October 14, 2012 03:31 am at 3:31 am |
  24. Anonymous

    What plan Romney have for America's?,he havn't lay any concret plan if he be the president of united state of America.he talks about Economy, president Obama inherited the problem from the formal president w.Bush and Obama control's it very well,if not the unemployment number should have gone up to 99%.in foreign policy,republican's foreign policies are GOTO TO WAR policy.

    October 14, 2012 03:42 am at 3:42 am |
  25. Denny

    Is there a way to determine who is voting legally and who is voting illegally?

    October 14, 2012 07:58 am at 7:58 am |
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