Ohio Poll of Polls shows tight race
October 22nd, 2012
02:35 PM ET
2 years ago

Ohio Poll of Polls shows tight race

(CNN) - The latest collection of polls in Ohio shows a razor thin margin between President Barack Obama and his rival Mitt Romney in the key battleground two weeks ahead of the November 6 election.

The CNN Poll of Polls shows Obama at 48% and Romney at 45% in Ohio, which carries 18 electoral votes. Those numbers are an average of three Ohio polls of likely voters conducted after the second presidential debate: Quinnipiac University/CBS News (October 17-20); Suffolk University (Oct. 18-21) and Fox News (Oct. 17-18). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

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Both candidates have been campaigning heavily in Ohio, and have taken steps to increase turnout in the Buckeye State. Both Romney and Obama have also urged their supporters to cast their ballots early.

In the Suffolk University poll of Ohio, which was released Monday, a gender gap persisted for the two presidential candidates. Obama was ahead of Romney among women, 53%-41%, but Romney led among men, 52%-40%.

"All roads to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue lead through Ohio," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, wrote in a statement. "Timing is everything. Barack Obama has banked an early lead, but Mitt Romney should even the score with his slight edge among likely voters who plan to cast ballots on Election Day. However, failure to turn out his voters on November sixth could be costly for Romney."

Favorability-wise, the two candidates fared evenly: both were at 50% favorability ratings.

And with the final presidential debate focused on foreign policy, Obama held a slight edge on the topic among likely Ohio voters. Forty-nine percent said the incumbent would better handle foreign policy if re-elected, compared to 42% who said Romney would better handle America's dealings abroad.

"These are high foreign policy expectations that the President must live up to in the final debate tonight," said Paleologos. "If he lives up to his billing, he could close the deal. However, failure to meet or exceed those expectations could open up the race for Romney."

The Suffolk University poll was conducted by telephone between October 18-21 from 600 likely Ohio voters. The sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (77 Responses)
  1. Anonymous

    That is not razor thin. Obama is clearly leading.

    October 22, 2012 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  2. truth hurts

    Romney is surging in the polls everywhere. Obama is done. Any sitting President that can't poll above 50% should be smart enough to get the hint and start packing his bags. Obama is just too dumb. He thinks he can lie and smear his way to a second term but the baggage of four years of failure is just too much for him.

    October 22, 2012 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  3. Borderless

    Ohio has an opportunity to put an end to the worst presidency in America's history. The question is, what side of history will they fall on?

    October 22, 2012 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  4. Frank

    I like how every poll is on the margin. I remember before the first debate when Obama was ahead like 12 points in Ohio, CNN said they were in the margin. Obama is ahead like 15-20 points in NH and they still have it as not chosen.. Give me a break... 5% is not a lot, but Obama is definitely ahead.

    October 22, 2012 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  5. TEAPARTY MIKE

    Polls released over the last several days show strong movement towards Romney, though Obama still shows a very thin lead in Ohio.
    New Suffolk poll out today shows a tie.
    Gravis Marketing also shows a tie.
    Fox News show Obama +3, last poll showed Obama +7, +4 move towards Romney.
    Rasmussen shows Obama +1, last poll was also Obama +1.
    PPP shows Obama +1, last poll showed Obama +5, +4 move towards Romney. This poll is very interesting. Last poll showed Obama +5 with a +4 Dem polling advantage over Republicans. New poll shows Obama up only +1 with a +8 Dem advantage in the polling sample over Republicans. Actuall Dem advantage in Ohio in 2008 was Dem +5. Even this poll showed Republicans more excited to vote them Dems. Seems a Dem advanted in 2012 greater than 2008 is not going to happen.
    CBS News shows Obama +5. Last poll showed Obama +10. Move of +5 towards Romney. This poll like the PPP poll has an unlikely Dem advantage in it's polling sample of +9.
    The CBS poll looks like an outlier, +5 for Obama looks to be an exageragted lead.
    Looks to me like Ohio is in a tied to Obama +2 range and moveing towards Romney.

    October 22, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  6. Phil

    With the way the debates have been swaying voters this election I wouldn't be suprised if the "CLEAR" winner of this debate ends up being the winner of the election! With that being said.... ROMNEY/RYAN 2012! I can't take another 4 years of failed policies & broken promises!

    October 22, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  7. tg

    I wish Romey's had the lead in Ohio, it's still way too close. He needs to get those 18 votes. I'm surprised
    that Obama is even in play after 4 years of screw ups, but people will vote their party regardless. Independants will give Romney the edge hopefully.

    October 22, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  8. Helene

    I am a Democrat, but Voting for Romney. Please help save our America as we once knew it. Obama has done nothing for us in 4 years and will not the next 4 years. If elected, you will see that this is true and deeply regret your decision to vote for him. He's a proven liar and a smooth talker, but talk will not get you a JOB JOB JOB. He can't even protect our people in Lybia, for God's sake. If something were to happen to Obama while in office, that means that idiot Biden would be the leader of our nation. Lord help us. Vote Romney 2012

    October 22, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  9. TheVoice2

    Truth Hurts... the truth is your Outsourcer in Chief will loose Ohio, therefore he will loose the election. He's surging in some red states NC, VA, and FL, not enough to win the election. Pack your bags neo cons.

    October 22, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  10. Joe Kenya

    Truth hurts: Great Post except that you meant to say Romney is a liar, and that he's done–The only dummy is the one that think's Polls vote and at the end of the day when the independent voters get the visual of Romney addressing the nation on some serious matter, they will vote for excuse me President Obama–I know that's hard to say but its Mr. president lolololol

    October 22, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  11. Mik

    Chalk up Colorado now clearly in the Romney column as of today. Florida, NC, Virginia now clearly in the Romney column. Kind of obvious how things are moving and Obama should start packing his bags. Obama can thank himself as the first debate showed him for the incompetent he truly is. Look for Ohio to go Romney by Nov 1.

    October 22, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  12. mcskadittle

    close enough so eve a subtle manipulation of tagg romneys voting machines will make a difference

    October 22, 2012 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  13. Bill

    @Borderless

    I take it your were asleep for 8 years during the Bush presidency. It is widely accepted that his was worst presidency (at least since Herbert Hoover). And if by some quirk Romney wins, I hope you have a fat 401 K that you can liquidate before the country is plunged back into a recession (i.e. unfunded military conflicts and unfunded tax cuts, not to mention pollicies that favor large corporations). And you should also note that tax cuts do not create jobs. If they did, Bush's 8 years would have produced record job creation, but they didn't.

    October 22, 2012 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  14. Joe Kenya

    Dear Mr and Miss Independent voter: Ask yourself one question... why would you vote for a person to be president when they dont respect 47% of the country which includes those brave heros and sheros in the armed services protecting his rights, senior citizens, and college students... and most of all not only does he not respect half of the country he doesnt respect its financial system, (offshore accounts) nor does he respect the auto industry for which some of you work for amd he doesn't respect the President of the United States, and the Presidency himself. Picture him at the Group-Twenty summit with the leaders of the world, With the leadership in congress...

    October 22, 2012 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  15. American People

    Show us your tax returns for the last 20 years Willard. Willard is a criminal for not disclosing income from off-shore accounts on his tax returns. Just ask McCain.

    October 22, 2012 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  16. Nick

    Obama has done a lot for Ohio. As a small Business owner I am doing pretty strong. I feel Romney just don't care for middle class and Ryan is to far right. My fellow Americans the economy is getting better lets not this 1% take over again.

    October 22, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  17. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    It's not close in Ohio, Obama has a double digit lead , Republicans want Americans to think that to justify stealing this election and we're not going to let that happen. Ohio won't be fooled by Bush/Romney policies again, as a native of Ohio, we're smarter than that and so is the rest of the country.

    October 22, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  18. BILL, NY

    This is not a race that should be close at all. If Romney wins rat will will be the meat of choice in our furtures.

    October 22, 2012 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  19. Raymond

    Romney doesn't care about the people especially the military because all he care is winning the election.

    October 22, 2012 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  20. jon

    Lets be honest, if the media told the truth all/any of the time ... we would not be in this situtation. It is the media that has failed us ... throw the bums out

    October 22, 2012 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  21. Marie MD

    These useless polls flip flop more than the twit!

    October 22, 2012 03:18 pm at 3:18 pm |
  22. to republicans

    its time for Republican to take over W.H. reason is, you will end with Bush era (going bankrupt and create more enemies around the world.. )love to see that happen very soon. Obama has created a surrounding for other parts of the world not to hate you ignorant people but just wait for romney to bring more destruction. Women – forget about your heath care with Romney, Men- you are are dumb as donkey.. especial to "truth hurts " you are so ignorance and i just have to assume you are not a bright person. Its just hard to argue with Stupid and that is what you are.

    October 22, 2012 03:20 pm at 3:20 pm |
  23. Torilynn

    I am praying for Romney! Obama is moving this country towards socialism which has failed in all other countries, in fact other countries are trying to model themselves after the way we were before Obama. He's too selfish and blinded by his radical views to understand, that his way will crumble this country! He's weakending our country and taking away our global presense. We wil fall to pieces if he gets re-elected. PLEASE VOTE ROMENY TO RESTORE AND BRING AMERICA BACK!

    October 22, 2012 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  24. Rick McDaniel

    It will be a tight race, mostly because Obama has been controlling the media, and they have been telling his lies for him, to the people of this country.

    if the media had done their real job, and reported honestly, Obama wouldn't have a chance of any kind, of winning.

    October 22, 2012 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  25. Gurgyl

    Any one that has brain will vote for OBAMA12. Mitt the twit is 47%, nasty idiot. It rich v/s American middle Class. Yes, on OBAMA12.

    October 22, 2012 03:23 pm at 3:23 pm |
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