Ohio Poll of Polls shows tight race
October 22nd, 2012
02:35 PM ET
1 year ago

Ohio Poll of Polls shows tight race

(CNN) - The latest collection of polls in Ohio shows a razor thin margin between President Barack Obama and his rival Mitt Romney in the key battleground two weeks ahead of the November 6 election.

The CNN Poll of Polls shows Obama at 48% and Romney at 45% in Ohio, which carries 18 electoral votes. Those numbers are an average of three Ohio polls of likely voters conducted after the second presidential debate: Quinnipiac University/CBS News (October 17-20); Suffolk University (Oct. 18-21) and Fox News (Oct. 17-18). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

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Both candidates have been campaigning heavily in Ohio, and have taken steps to increase turnout in the Buckeye State. Both Romney and Obama have also urged their supporters to cast their ballots early.

In the Suffolk University poll of Ohio, which was released Monday, a gender gap persisted for the two presidential candidates. Obama was ahead of Romney among women, 53%-41%, but Romney led among men, 52%-40%.

"All roads to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue lead through Ohio," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, wrote in a statement. "Timing is everything. Barack Obama has banked an early lead, but Mitt Romney should even the score with his slight edge among likely voters who plan to cast ballots on Election Day. However, failure to turn out his voters on November sixth could be costly for Romney."

Favorability-wise, the two candidates fared evenly: both were at 50% favorability ratings.

And with the final presidential debate focused on foreign policy, Obama held a slight edge on the topic among likely Ohio voters. Forty-nine percent said the incumbent would better handle foreign policy if re-elected, compared to 42% who said Romney would better handle America's dealings abroad.

"These are high foreign policy expectations that the President must live up to in the final debate tonight," said Paleologos. "If he lives up to his billing, he could close the deal. However, failure to meet or exceed those expectations could open up the race for Romney."

The Suffolk University poll was conducted by telephone between October 18-21 from 600 likely Ohio voters. The sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (77 Responses)
  1. John, PA

    The presidential race is Romney’s to win and win big; Romney is ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney is pulling the swing voters in California his way; this is going to be a landslide win for Republicans and the Democrats don’t even see it.

    October 22, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  2. Matthew Jenkins

    Obama is going down. A poll indicating strength of support in Ohio shows Romney's supporters much more likely to cast a ballot. Can anyone really be motivated to show up at the polls for 4 more years? Yikes.

    October 22, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  3. truth hurts

    SOUTHERN HOTTIE
    @truth hurts
    Hurts to know that 44 will be re-elected, doesn't it?
    =====================================
    You obviously weren't wathcing the debates and certainly haven't been reading the polls. Romney surging ahead in many battleground states and Obama sinking. I'm feeling very good about the end of our long national nightmare, Obama Jimmy Carter II will be sent back to Chicago where he can help his old buddy Rahm Emmanual sva ethe people of Chicago from their Democrat mess.

    October 22, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  4. Joe Kenya

    Foreign policy debate: Romeny what is your experience in world affairs? Well I did missions in Paris laying on a beach in a heart shaped drawing that said I love Ann.... Great war hawk he is, and could car enough about our Service people in Libya if the President wanted to send more security into the area he couldnt because Ryan's hope voted against sending more aid for security.

    October 22, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  5. texcal68

    truth hurts - President Obama doesn't have double-digit leads in Ohio or New Hampshire, but he is leading in must win states like Ohio, while early voters cast their ballots.

    October 22, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  6. Bill Green

    Friend of mine at work told me some odd things about Mormons ...I looked it up on their official website.....weird stuff...not sure I want a president who is in this ...do your own research

    1. Guy named Joe Smith in Vermont started the Mormon religion when he says Jesus came to the United States and spoke to him

    2. They believed in multiple wives until USA laws shut them down , many still practice polygamy in Utah.

    2. This Joe Smith guy says he found some metal plates in the woods...with writing on them ..used them to start the religion. Mentions other gods and a planet called Kolob ....

    So some guy named Joe in Vermont started this whole religion ...pretty weird

    October 22, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  7. Travis

    @ Sniffit
    "Make no mistake: change nothing but Obama's skin color and he'd be running away with this election like nobody's business."

    Interesting thought. What facts or data do you have that back up your claim?

    October 22, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  8. Sniffit

    "Romney is pulling the swing voters in California his way"

    All 3 of them? I gotta wonder what's going on in that Teatroll echo chamber at this point...did someone let fly with the nitrous oxide or something?

    October 22, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  9. Sniffit

    Fact: we'll be hearing about problems with the "provisional ballots" after the election in Ohio. The state is currently controlled by the GOP so the fox is already IN the hen house. Watch how fast the provisional ballots become a huge problem in urban centers. Just. Watch.

    October 22, 2012 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  10. truth hurts

    texcal68 - Furthermore, please keep in mind since early voting started in Ohio on October 2, the president has led in the polls.
    ============================================================================================
    Government dependent Democrats sitting around always have time on their hands to vote early. Republicans are too busy going to work to support their families and pay taxes to support you lazy bums. We'll definitely make time to vote in November though. THAT you can take to the bank.

    October 22, 2012 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  11. Don

    IF MITT should win ,any working person who votes for him deserves what they get.

    October 22, 2012 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  12. DavidH

    Seriously, John? Where do you get your polling data? A poll of polls on PA, for example, at RealClearPolitics shows Obama up by 5%, and not a single Romney lead in that state since February. It also shows Obama ahead in WI and OH, with a tie in VA. For Romney to win, he'll have to move the polls at least a few percentage points in a number of states, and time is running short. The share trading at Intrade also shows Obama with about a 60% chance of winning.

    October 22, 2012 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  13. ThinkAgain: Hey, networks, fact-check the debates in real-time and put it in the crawl!

    @John, PA: "The presidential race is Romney’s to win and win big; Romney is ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Romney is pulling the swing voters in California his way; this is going to be a landslide win for Republicans and the Democrats don’t even see it."

    In your dreams, buddy. The GOP is trying its best to suppress the vote, but the American people know better and will vote to continue the 31 straight months of private sector job growth, housing rebounding, over 5 million jobs created, bringing home our troops from Afghanistan, etc.

    Mittens 'n' Munster want to start a war with Iran – that's why they're calling for $2 trillion in increased military funding when the military ISN'T ASKING FOR IT.

    You want to go back to all the failed policies of GW Bush? Go ahead – but Democrats, Independents and thinking Republicans are going to vote for Obama.

    October 22, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  14. to dumb republicans

    i cant believe most of men want to vote for romney.. why? are you guys dumb as romney and ryan? do you even care about health benefits with obama care and ignore that with Romney. Do you even care Romney only thinks about his top 5% than you who earns less than 250 K. Do you think Romney will create more job when he sent most jobs to china – and he invested in china and closed more offices in the US? for some reason i think you dumb republicans only thinking about your party to win than whats best for the nation. so get him elected.. you will see american dream in the drain very soon.. Romney is a liar and for next 4 years with Romeny will be a lying nation and you will elect him for another 4 more year and then you will see the second coming of the Lord... Hallelujah

    October 22, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  15. Four and The Door

    2010's shellacking was just a preview. Consider this. Romney/ Ryan 2012 is running on a positive plan forward. They bring optimism to Americans who have been beaten down for 3 1/2 years. They have both demonstrated by their actions that they will work for bipartisan solutions going forward. Obama/ Biden on the other hand are running a negative campaign and their only response to Mitt Romney's well-constructed economic plan that helps 100% of Americans is that it's "a lie". Is that all Obama has? And if you like the partisan circus Washington has become in the last 3 years, Obama is your man. The first thing he did when he took office was to burn all of his bridges with Republicans and he has not worked with the since.

    October 22, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  16. hemplover

    Romney's wealthy backers have spent close to $1 Billion, with their primary stated goal to not pay a penny more in taxes. He and his buddies are pillaging America to make themselves richer. That is as unAmerican as it can get.

    October 22, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  17. The REAL Truth...

    @Rachel – Obama would rather punish the wealthy than fix the economy!
    ----------------------------------
    NEWSFLASH sweetheart... One cannot fix the economy – or anything else for that matter – when half on your team is playing against you. That is what the GOP have done for 4 yrs.

    October 22, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  18. ThinkAgain: Hey, networks, fact-check the debates in real-time and put it in the crawl!

    @Matthew Jenkins: "Can anyone really be motivated to show up at the polls for 4 more years? Yikes."

    I can tell you only watch Fox and believe all the lies they spew. President Obama's policies kept our country from going into a Great Depression and have resulted in 5 million jobs and 31 straight months of private sector job growth.

    Mittens is going down and I hope he STAYS DOWN.

    October 22, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  19. ghostriter

    Romney was against the auto bailout. 1 in 8 jobs are attached to the auto industry. Romney is against 1/8th of the people of Ohio.

    That, however is only quarter of the 47% that Romney has no use for. Except for votes. So his is in good shape.

    October 22, 2012 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  20. Kay-Kay

    The polls are all over the place. I don't know what polls you're looking at but all the latest ones I have seen show the President still leading. I am so motivated to show up–don't know about you, but I am part of the "47%" and I definitely don't someone like Romney representing me. And I know a bunch of others who feel the same.

    October 22, 2012 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  21. I Voted Early In NC

    @Matthew Jenkins- You are drinking the Romney kool-aid Yikes.

    October 22, 2012 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  22. bbrooker88

    John, PA... I'll have to look for that name on Nov 7th. IF Romney wins, it certainly won't be big.

    October 22, 2012 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  23. matt

    these are the SAME people that PREDICTED the Wisconsin RECALL ELECTION would be "ROUT" in favor of Liberals....thence the Liberals got their tails booted come election time. WAY TO GO GUYS.

    October 22, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  24. McShannon

    Who earnestly speaks for the plight of the poor, the homeless, the sick and hungry and yes its President Obama that stands out not Mitt Romney? Define who a Christian should be the characteristics of caring for others and realize that a president of the USA represents all races, faiths and lifestyles. He is correct in not wanting to impose every Christian ruling according to the conservative interpretation of the bible because he represents all Americans and yet in his own walk can and does represent an image to be emulated.

    October 22, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  25. armyav8r

    The Obama administration is a classic “CULT OF PERSONALITY”…. he looks good, promises free stuff (at the expense of OTHERS’ MONEY AND FREEDOMS…all in the name of “fairness” of course) even though HALF the nation disagrees with him. He demonizes (vilifies) the very principles, means, and group that ENGINEERED and EXECUTED the rise of America (1775-1945)….using a smaller govt.+free market model (you know….that model Liberals say “doesn’t work”?...yes, THAT model ). The media acts like a mob of 14 year old girls at a Justin Bieber concert. Debates NOW are judged by volume, energy, and childish two year old kindergarten smirks & gestures….rather than (god forbid) PERFORMANCE RECORDS and REPORT CARDS. Never before have I ever witnessed SO MUCH use of DIVISIVE tactics with regard to class, race, and religious warfare….nor have I EVER seen a President take ZERO responsibility for the last 4 years. Pathetic.

    October 22, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
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