Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 45% in Ohio
October 22nd, 2012
10:43 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 45% in Ohio

Boca Raton, Florida (CNN) - As President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney get ready to face off in their final debate, a new poll in the crucial battleground state of Ohio indicates a close contest in the race for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes.

According to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News survey released Monday morning, 50% of likely voters in Ohio say they support the president, with 45% backing Romney. Obama's five point lead is right at the edge of the survey's sampling error. It's also half the 10-point 53%-43% lead he held over the former Massachusetts governor in a Quinnipiac poll conducted late last month, prior to the debates.

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"The good news for Gov. Romney is that he has sliced President Obama's lead in Ohio in half in the last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The bad news for Romney, and the good news for Obama, is that no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and the challenger is running out of time to make up the remaining difference."

A Fox News Poll released Friday, which along with the Quinnipiac survey, was also conducted entirely after last Tuesday's second presidential debate, indicated the president with a narrower three-point 46%-43% advantage among likely voters.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, there's a wide gender gap, with Obama leading 55%-40% among women voters, with Romney ahead 51%-44% among men. Romney has a seven point 51%-44% advantage among white voters while the president is winning over nine in ten black voters. Those with college degrees are divided between the two candidates, while those without degrees are backing Obama 52%-43%.

"President Obama won 46 percent of the white vote in Ohio in 2008 when he carried the state by five points. Romney probably needs to hold Mr. Obama to less than 40 percent of the white vote if he is to win Ohio, and he has a ways to go at this point," added Brown.

The survey also indicates an income divide, with people making less than $30,000 a year supporting Obama by a nearly two to one advantage and those making more than $100,000 per year backing Romney by a 53%-45% margin. The GOP challenger also has a 49%-42% advantage among independent voters.

According to the poll, one in five likely voters say they've already cast a ballot. Of those early voters, Obama leads 54%-39%.

Buckeye voters are more optimistic about the economy in their state. They're split on whether the national economy is getting better, but by a 46%-42% margin, they say things are improving in Ohio. Buckeye voter are tied at 48% when asked which candidate would do a better job on the economy.

Ohio and two other swing states–Florida and Virginia–have been receiving a lion's share of attention from the presidential campaigns, ranging from candidate visits to ad spending, during the general election.

The poll also indicates Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican nominee, the state's U.S. Senate contest.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 17-20, with 1,548 likely voters in Ohio. The survey's overall sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (42 Responses)
  1. ThinkAgain: Hey, networks, fact-check the debates in real-time and put it in the crawl!

    Keep it up, Ohio! You know that Mittens, all his lying aside, would have let the American auto industry go bankrupt, while President Obama's plan rescued that industry and the 1+ million supply chain jobs.

    Obama/Biden 2012 = The only sane choice

    October 22, 2012 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  2. Lemone

    An this is why our President will get a second term!!!!!@

    October 22, 2012 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  3. Rudy NYC

    ...and the misleading billboards telling people that they need this, that, and another thing are being taken down. The donors and sponsors of the misleading billboards remain unknown and anonymous. Meanwhile, a state rep is organizing an anti-misleading billboard campaign aimed at debunking the misleading billboards. I am not certain if the new billboards are direct replacements for the misleading ones. Sounds like it, though.

    October 22, 2012 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  4. New Moon Rising

    Ahhh .. Boca Raton... where;s there's Very Little Money and the town motto is ' say it in my good ear"

    October 22, 2012 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  5. UBS, WILLARD & THE 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    Those Ohio polls aren't budging. Not good news for Willard. It's going to get even worse for Willard when Gloria Allred exposes Willard's dirty little secret. HINT: Housekeeper

    October 22, 2012 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  6. Thomas

    WTO bars Chinese duties on US steel ... from imposing duties on certain United States steel exports, siding with US President Barack Obama.
    A World Trade Organization appeals panel has found in favor of the United ... “The Obama Administration will not stand by and allow China to break trade laws.

    Romney won't like this good news.

    October 22, 2012 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  7. Anonymous

    Spin it towards Romney all you want, CNN. Facts are Romney has lost this election.

    October 22, 2012 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  8. Sniffit

    "Romney probably needs to hold Mr. Obama to less than 40 percent of the white vote if he is to win Ohio, and he has a ways to go at this point," added Brown."

    Brass tacks: There's not enough undecided white men in OH to make up that difference. It's getting pretty obvious that Mittens will be the last GOPer to attempt to win the Presidency with just white votes. Will it work for the first few who try to do it the other way? Probably not. The GOP has a lot of work in front of it...beginning with aborting the Teatrolls.

    October 22, 2012 10:59 am at 10:59 am |
  9. Anonymous

    Ohio + Nevada = Better luck next time, Willard.

    October 22, 2012 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  10. Pete

    It's gonna get worse for Romney after this nights debate because the president is going to hit him publicly with facts that Romney can't run from.From the 9 billion dollar ponzi scheme he and son Tagg are in to the recent sale Friday of Honeywell to Chinas Sensata in which Romney made 8 million with Bains help costing Americans there 170 jobs.Is that the presidencial candidate you racist republicans want in creating jobs overseas instead of here as he's promised,just more pandering to get your vote but dumping you at the curb if he got in,that's his course you ignorent hateful ones,you deserve it because all you've done is vote for losers from Hoover till Bush,isn't that pathedic !!!

    October 22, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  11. Wake up People!

    Such a shame that people are so willing to go against what they know is the best thing for them, just so they can put someone in the White House that has the look they think is Presidential. The fact that President Obama has worked so hard for the middle class and poor with nothing but obstruction from the GOP, and now we are ready to hand this country over to the biggest liar and fraud this country has ever seen, truly sickens me. While I didn't like Bush, he didn't scare me, but Romney TERRIFIES me. He makes Bush and Nixon look like altar boys..... God help us all if he is elected.

    OBAMA 2012!

    October 22, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  12. Borderless

    Yes, yes. Ohio's going to decide the election giving Obama a narrow win in the electoral college while he loses the popular vote. The sad thing is, in two years, all the regret in the world won't undo it. We will be stuck with a president who's lack of leadership, ethics, and competence will result in nothing being done to bring the economy back from the brink. Ohio won't be solely responsible for our disaster, but they'll sure as hell be a big part of it.

    October 22, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  13. Larry L

    The State of Ohio is populated with working people who understand the challenges of raising a family. These folks are also able to see the two great flaws in Mitt Romney's vision. 1. Romney isn't willing to explain how he'd pay for his outrageous 5 trillion dollars in cuts. Ohioans know the bill payer will be the middle class and Medicare. 2. The Romney and Lyin' Ryan campaign says "trust us". But both appear to be pathological liars with the fact checkers hammering them on all of their comments. Neither will release their tax returns. Every thing they've both said in the Primary they've flip-flopped on in the General Election. They can't be trusted and folks in Ohio smell a rat.

    October 22, 2012 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  14. joe

    hopefully the people of Ohio will see through the romnry ryan mess and understand they are liers who will say anything to get elected. How embarassing to have a guy that wants to be president hide his money over seas so it won.t be taxed. Thats tax evasion folks. His son is in charge of companies that will benefit if he is elected and also keeps money over seas. Wake up this is just a business deal for these guys they don't care about the people. Remember the 47% Women you will have no rights if theses two geet in. 0 years wasted if romney gets in . Vote all republicans out. Thye are not for America only against Obama. Forward.

    October 22, 2012 11:10 am at 11:10 am |
  15. Don

    If Ohio goes for Romney they deserve everything they will get. With the Governor, the Speaker of the House and the Secretay of State in Ohio. It's a wonder Obama isn't winning in a landslide there.

    October 22, 2012 11:11 am at 11:11 am |
  16. JEN

    Come on Ohio!! Let's give Obama four more years and not go back to Bush years!!!

    October 22, 2012 11:13 am at 11:13 am |
  17. RobK

    I want to see a tie. A Romney/Biden administration would just be too funny.

    October 22, 2012 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  18. Anthony

    This is the beginning of the end for Romney. Without Ohio, Romney is not going to win.

    October 22, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  19. Jim

    It is very unfortunate and shameful that the poll takers and the American people are being deceived by the same republicans that supports a candidate who has no conscience and has been for and against every issue just to get elected. Wake up America. This election is becoming a contest between blacks and whites/ the haves and the not haves. Give the president some time to pull the economy completely out of a recession that took eight year to bring upon us. Four years is not enough. The funny thing about this problem is that the same people who ran this nation to ground are the people that wants it back because the face of the president they see on tv does not look like what they use to see of their presidents. Shame on you republicans.

    October 22, 2012 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  20. doug

    The residents of Ohio are showing the rest of us americans that they trust our President as a true Leader, give him your vote in your home State

    October 22, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  21. Jason

    If any polls are going to matter its the STATE polls. The heck with all that Gallup National polls. State polls show more accurate information within the state itself. Like I said before all Obama need is 3 swing states. Romney needs alot more.

    October 22, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  22. B.

    The President will win Ohio and win the Presidency.

    October 22, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  23. sonny chapman

    Attention White Auto Industry Workers: Who loves you ? Who loathes you ? 47 % !!!!

    October 22, 2012 11:43 am at 11:43 am |
  24. Suzanne

    When you don't report the sample size, (the number of people asked) or the uncertainty, the poll has no meaning at all. There is a big difference in the meanings of reporting the opinions of 5, 50 or 5000 likely voters. Please report the sample size or the uncertainty. If Quinnipiac or other sources do not give you the sample size or the uncertainty than they are not a reliable sources.

    October 22, 2012 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
  25. Fair is Fair

    For a poll that (AGAIN) oversampled democrats by a full 9% and shows Romney slicing Obama's "advantage" in half to only 5%, I'd say the trending looks surprisingly good for the Governor.

    October 22, 2012 11:45 am at 11:45 am |
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