October 24th, 2012
05:07 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN shifts North Carolina to 'lean Romney'

(CNN) - Color North Carolina light red.

CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true "toss up" to "lean Romney."

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Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte.

While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn't made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September.

Last week, in a clear sign it's confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney's campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.

This week the Obama campaign denied that they were giving up on North Carolina, saying they have a "credible pathway to 50%" in the state. But some campaign officials privately acknowledge that the state, which Obama can afford to lose, is moving out of reach.

With the shift of North Carolina, CNN now estimates that Romney is leading in states with 206 electoral votes. The shift does not affect CNN's estimate that Obama is leading in states with 237 electoral votes. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

CNN is also shifting Indiana and Missouri, two states that are currently "lean Romney," to "safe Romney." Obama carried Indiana four years ago, becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state in a presidential election. And he narrowly lost Missouri to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee.

But this cycle, the Obama campaign has not seriously contested either state.

The moving of Indiana and Missouri does not affect the electoral count.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • North Carolina
soundoff (306 Responses)
  1. Justin

    Go blue NC! I believe in you

    October 24, 2012 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  2. JeffNC

    There is a surge of new dem voters in NC outvoting repubs 2 to 1. Those have taken advantage of the one stop voting law and have not been accounted for in the polls. I think NC will stay blue again in 2012, especially because of all the tremendous work the Obama campaign team is doing in big agglomeration i.e Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, Greenville. Don't count us out yet!!
    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

    October 24, 2012 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  3. stainpouch

    Hahahahaha–just wait til we get a load of the Bishop. A president who believes he's from Kolub and thinks it's 1955. Hahahahahaha. We'll get what we deserve. What, you say the right wing stole everything we have? Time for the Bishop? Hahahhahahahaha. When he's done with you, you'll be walking to work and eating your family pets. Go for it. I want to see this nation of imbeciles finally go too far. Please vote Romeny–I don't care about myself. I only want to see you get yours.

    October 24, 2012 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  4. rrobinson

    People would rather in spite of their best interest, vote for Romney, just to get President Obama out of the White House. North Carolina is probably majority white, and that explains that, state's that are more multi racial tend to vote in their best interest. I fee sorry for Anyone poor not doing what's right. But I say put Romney in office and deal with the consequences. like the 2010 elections.

    October 24, 2012 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  5. Willie Floyd

    Ditto Mark!! Born in SC 67 yrs. ago. I've about given up on voters here–BTW I'm white.

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

    October 24, 2012 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  6. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    Want to wake up independents and undecideds in North Carolina and other swing states across America? Well, here we go...do you really want to know what a second Obama term would be like? I believe it would be more like the first term where a whole lot of progress was made at home and abroad.

    BUT do you really want to know what a Romney first term would be like? Do you really want to know? Well, a Romney first term would be like George W. Bush's first term. I live just a few miles from Ground Zero in New York City and on 9/11/01 I stood on the banks of the Hudson River and watched in horror as the World Trade Center Towers collapsed. I watched in horror as friends and neighbors jumped from the burning inferno to their deaths. I saw New York's Bravest and Finest perished as they rushed into the burning towers to rescue fellow Americans. I saw our Pentagon attacked and more Americans die in a lonely field in Shanksville Pennsylvania. Yes our home land was being attacked and our sovereignty being violated by terrorists and George W. Bush was in hiding and no where to be found. Let's face it, for many of us who live in the North East and near Ground Zero and even for many who live a distant ways, life will never ever be the same. And if Romney is elected, unfortunately that is what his first term would be like for America. We would have to endure another 9/11 and perhaps WWIII and the end of America and the world as we know it.

    America, its time to wake up and say NO to Romney/Ryan and Yes We Can to Obama/Biden.

    God Bless America!

    October 24, 2012 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  7. jhnjul

    Putting Republicans back in charge is pure insanity. Either Republicans and their media cohorts are lying or the people have cracked, flown the cuckoo's nest. I'll believe independents will put someone so indecisive in command when I see it happen.

    October 24, 2012 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  8. Daniel

    Romney can win without Ohio but it is very difficult. He would need to win WI and NH or NV or IOWA instead.

    It does look like the most likely outcome is that Ohio decides the next president though.

    October 24, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  9. truth hurts

    NC "leaning" Romney??? More like NC all in for Romney. They know a winner when they see one.

    October 24, 2012 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  10. jason carpenter

    @mark listen to him Lynda I live in the heart of the bible belt right below Alabama, the racial tension down here is out the roof.

    October 24, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  11. sbssue1

    Alex, no one is better than the next......but it right to vote for the best person to LEAD our country back to prosperity. That's what this is all about. I did not like Bush, however, I did vote for Hilary and thought she should have run Obama out of the ball park four years ago! It's that simple. We need to have jobs, military and take care of our own prior to supporting others.

    October 24, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  12. truth hurts

    Mark
    Lynda from Minnesota, the south is very racial. People do not tell me race is not an issue here!
    =====================================================================
    According to all the lefties in here any state that doesn't vote for Obama is racist. I'm sure if he wins he will use that "fact" to declare those states subject to the Voting Rights Act so the federal government can take control of their election process to eradicate such rampant racisim.

    October 24, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  13. Wade

    Wow is CNN ever blind! NC is a win for Romney not leaning Romney. Romeny is so far ahead of Obama that he is pulling some of his campaign staff out to place them in states like PA and OH and WI. CNN needs to stop their constant campaigning for Obama.

    October 24, 2012 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  14. Name. Jeffrey Morrison

    Obama is going to win the election and there is nothing Romney can do about it! Alabama might be a red state but Obama stands for the middle class.

    Jeff Morrison. Leighton,AL.

    October 24, 2012 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
  15. Frank

    Romney wins the majority of the states that does not have too much population. Obama wins states that has high population. The same goes for inside the state. Romney wins the for less populated counties, while Obama wins the counties thats mostly populated. For example, Obama is ahead in Ohio 49%-44%, but if you go inside the state, Obama is winning in Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, While Romney is taking over the rest. However, just those 3 huge cities, puts Obama slightly 2% ahead the margin of error. Obama has gotten Ohio Down.

    Obama Will Win. We Will SUCCEED!! WE WILL MOVE FORWARD!!! OBAMA WILL TURN THE COUNTRY AROUND!!! THATS WHY WE NEED FOUR MORE YEARS!!!

    October 24, 2012 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  16. linsey

    with the republican voters, race is always an issue, little thing , it means race for them..even romney/ ryan also have racial issue in their campaigns..too bad these people are not for the betterment of the country, it is just a dirty politics..

    October 24, 2012 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  17. jj

    NC is full of rightwingers.

    October 24, 2012 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  18. Joepub

    Mark, So, what happened? All the people that voted for Obama in 2008 in North Carolina are all of a sudden racists in 2012?

    October 24, 2012 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  19. SJM

    Oh, and Mark, I live in the south, I have yet to meet 1 person who says it is about race. I have several African American friends – small business owners and employees. None voted for Obama, none will. This is about thet economy, stupid!

    October 24, 2012 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  20. Cydney

    The South is still very racial, and it is from only one side. I won't say which side, but many here in Charlotte, NC are dems. I was raised a dem. from way up North, until I formed my own views, and I'm glad I changed.

    Mr. Romney turned me off in the beginning. He has made some unbeleivable stupid comments that turned people in his own party away. But once Paul Ryan came on and I watched the debates, I am voting for Romney/Ryan. I have an excellent article from the Financial Times, on the "five policy areas Romney will "correct", from the Obama admin.

    Romney/Ryan I beleive will get our country moving again, the way it should be. Mr. Obama is a "socialist", he wants to stop growth of American products, stop employment. And most of all, his idea of socialized medicine, is something Hitler did immediately. Mr. Obama is dangerous for America, he did not tell us any new ideas for the next four years, b/c he will bring us to a halt. Too many people are homeless and cannot find employment who just a few years ago were earning 100,000 or more!! This is a disgrace.

    Mr. Obama, GO HOME!

    October 24, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  21. Steve- Illinois

    Mark, it must be racial, or Bush's fault! The desperation is getting more, and more intense in lib land. LOL

    October 24, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  22. SZ

    Ok, I concede NC is lean Romney...but with Obama up in Ohio in virtually every poll in the past 4-5 months, how can that be a "true toss-up?" More polls have shown Obama leading in NC than have shown Romney up in OH. And Nevada??? Nevada, OH, and WI should be in lean Obama. NH, IA, VA, FA, Fl are true toss-ups, yes.

    October 24, 2012 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  23. Mike in Texas

    This is no surprise. I have Obama at 290-248. I give Romney North Carolina, Florida and Virginia. He isn't taking the Midwest or Nevada for sure.

    October 24, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  24. Info

    According to Pollster, there have been no new polls in NC since 10/18. What is this shift based on?

    October 24, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  25. bipartisan77

    This is news? Florida, Virginia, Colorado as well have been leaning Romney for some time according to other news sources, with others even putting Iowa in Romney's column. Every poll released today has Romney at or above 50% with Intrade (not that it matters much) forecasting a Romney win for the first time. This decision is not news. Romney has been ahead in North Carolina for awhile now. It also won't be news once Virginia, Colorado, and Florida shift to "leaning Romney" 3 days before the Election. All hope is lost at CNN, a once respectable news source.

    October 24, 2012 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
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