October 24th, 2012
05:07 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN shifts North Carolina to 'lean Romney'

(CNN) - Color North Carolina light red.

CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true "toss up" to "lean Romney."

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Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte.

While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn't made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September.

Last week, in a clear sign it's confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney's campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.

This week the Obama campaign denied that they were giving up on North Carolina, saying they have a "credible pathway to 50%" in the state. But some campaign officials privately acknowledge that the state, which Obama can afford to lose, is moving out of reach.

With the shift of North Carolina, CNN now estimates that Romney is leading in states with 206 electoral votes. The shift does not affect CNN's estimate that Obama is leading in states with 237 electoral votes. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

CNN is also shifting Indiana and Missouri, two states that are currently "lean Romney," to "safe Romney." Obama carried Indiana four years ago, becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state in a presidential election. And he narrowly lost Missouri to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee.

But this cycle, the Obama campaign has not seriously contested either state.

The moving of Indiana and Missouri does not affect the electoral count.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • North Carolina
soundoff (306 Responses)
  1. Vikki

    Why do repubs think its only democrats get welfare ect. There's a lot of rely s get it to.

    October 24, 2012 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  2. JG

    Got to sell those things on tv and keep the people watching. Stay tuned to Wolf!

    October 24, 2012 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  3. Frank

    Let me ask everyone something. If Romney wins, would he be inheriting the country better or worse then what Obama inherited in 2008?

    Lets be sincere here, if Romney wins, He will be inheriting the country way better than what Obama inherited in 2008.

    Obama inherited the country losing 800,000 jobs a month in 2008.
    If Romney wins, he would be inheriting the country making over 100,000 jobs a month.

    Obama inherited the country with a steep downward slope of the economy.
    If Romney wins, He would be inheriting a country with a regular moving steady UPWARD slope for the economy for over 20 months.

    So, with that said, are we not better than 4 years ago? Do you think it is worth risking voting for a man that will put on completely different policies because the recovery is too slow, that we have no Idea if its going to work because he changes his mind every week, than keeping the President that has put a steady, not fast, but steady growth on the economy?

    Why try to fix what is not broken? Plus, since we KNOW FOR A FACT it has been going upwards slowly, but surely, why not give him a try for another 4 years so he can finish the job and move it up faster? He did not finish and probably won't finish because it doesnt take 8 years to fix this, specially when the GOP kept voting no on his bills to make sure he is a one term president? And that is not a myth, that was said on TV for Christ sake. I say do not touch what is not broken, and give him a shot since the slope IS moving upward, instead of downward when he was elected. I say he can only make it better, since he proved that he did not make it worse.

    Vote for Barack Obama people. This is common sense. I am able to get funds for school because of him. I will be an engineer because he FOUGHT for me. I am better off than 4 years ago and so is the country.

    October 24, 2012 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  4. Marky

    Romnesia is a chameleon, hoping you don't notice...wake up America.

    October 24, 2012 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  5. Josh

    Nasty little comments from arrogant people who can't see anyone who disagrees with them as being intelligent. I live in NC and have already cast my vote. It definitely wasn't for Obama, and it wasn't for Romney either. I voted third party because I'd rather have a clear conscience if I'm going to get stuck with one of two terrible choices. NC is still suffering like a lot of states. Not to mention a lot of young voters who voted for Obama in 2008 aren't impressed. It is also offensive and obnoxious to hear people still pulling the race card as an excuse because Obama apparently can do no wrong. I'd be more than happy to vote for a black man if he had an actual plan and a positive record. Spending a few trillion dollars, assaulting civil liberties, and lying about his drug policy isn't a great record.

    October 24, 2012 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  6. Wake up People!

    This saddens me as my bff lives in Raleigh and I have visited her there and the whites went out of their way to be friendly to me. But that was several years prior to President Obama becoming the first POTUS that hasn't looked like the rest.....

    October 24, 2012 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  7. Kris

    I am actually scared for a Romney win. He is so anti everything I stand for. Whether it be women's rights, gay rights or rights of the average citizen, we stand to be crushed under the weight of a Republican agenda to make the rich richer and the poor, poorer. Why are so many people even thinking of voting for him. It is because of his type that our economy is in the shape that it is and why our morale is so low. Obama has tried to get us out this mess, but he needs more time. VOTE for a chance for everyone to succeed. VOTE OBAMA!

    October 24, 2012 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  8. Are you kidding me?

    Not too surprising. i wrote off this state a while back because I know that they would vote against themselves. I want to see the heads of people who vote for Willard explode when they are handed the defeat they deserve. They have a right to choose but they should also educate themselves on the facts not listen to the scare tactics and misinformation circulated by the tea party and faux news.

    October 24, 2012 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  9. Cliff

    Mark

    Race is not the issue, obama has done a terrible job both with the economy and foreign policy. People will vote their pocketbooks. Romney holds a 50 to 46% lead in National polls and a 50 to 45% lead in swing state polls with Ohio being 48/48. If the momentum continues Romney is our next President.

    October 24, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  10. SoSad

    CNN what is your logic? If Romney is up by the polls by 3 pts, then Ohio should be classified as safe for Obama because Obama has a 3 5 pt lead, average. What's up with THAT! Will you lose readership if you point that OUT, just asking?

    October 24, 2012 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  11. what

    this is news? NC has been 80% Romney on Nate Silver's 538 for weeks now. Sham on CNN for mining this "horse race" narrative for more website hits

    October 24, 2012 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  12. Anonymous

    Race is not an issue! How else does an African American get to the White House in a nation that is populated with only 14% African Americans. I am so tired of the race card being pulled everytime we don't agree with democrats. F.Y.I. I am a male latino born and raised in the south.

    October 24, 2012 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  13. debbie315

    Merrilltec: Best and most mature post I've read this who election season. Mark: You paint with a broad brush; I live in south Alabama and I find you get out of things what you put into them. I have good relationships with a lot a blacks, and we're very open with one another. I choose my friends based on lots of things, but color is not one of the criteria. You might try that approach and see how it works for you.

    October 24, 2012 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  14. Mike

    rac•ism   [rey-siz-uhm]
    noun
    a belief or doctrine that inherent differences among the various human races determine cultural or individual achievement, usually involving the idea that one's own race is superior and has the right to rule others.

    -Just for people that are getting confused, when black people vote for Obama because he is black, that is racism too. There are many racists in Chicago, probably more than the deep south, just in Chicago it goes the other way.

    October 24, 2012 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  15. NoleGirl

    Oh how they will regret it!!!!

    October 24, 2012 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  16. Jermaine

    Romney will not win NC... CNN is making this call based only on polls, but early voting and voter registration says otherwise. Early voting is in favor or Obama by almost 3 to 1. These polls also do not count the unregistered voters that are able to vote at NC's one stop shop when they are able to register to vote and early vote all in the same day. Those voters are overwhelmingly for the President. The numbers dont add up for the Republicans to come from behind on election day. The Romney camp knows this and that's why they pulled out, but tried to spin it to discourage democratic early voters to think that he has NC in the bag.

    October 24, 2012 07:14 pm at 7:14 pm |
  17. PartOf

    CNN MANAGEMENT: Did you ever notice how the polls now run the news? Who is winning and who is losing and to the American viewers we are deprived of substance, real conversation on climate change, health care with lowering costs, fiscal cliff, taxes, social security. Our nation-has dumb down for the low-information voter and CNN are you still the unbiased broadcasters? Romney momentum has slowed, and you are backing the Karl Rove tactics of 2000 to give a false impression. How about the five states Obama carries...for cable television it is about money and ratings, so substance continues to evade CNN. Dark Money buys television and the viewers everywhere lose, and in the end so will CNN.

    October 24, 2012 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  18. outawork

    USA – lean Romney

    October 24, 2012 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  19. LESLIE

    I just cant belive that american are so stuip.

    October 24, 2012 07:18 pm at 7:18 pm |
  20. Joe Schmoe

    Yet slightly more of my faith is restored in people because they are starting to see through all the media propaganda used to manipulate people's feelings and fears and they're starting to use logic and intelligence to make a decision based upon cold hard facts.

    October 24, 2012 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  21. Alex Rodriguez

    So when is CNN moving Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa to lean Obama???

    October 24, 2012 07:23 pm at 7:23 pm |
  22. Obama the theif

    Everyone is abandoning Barry the thief.

    October 24, 2012 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
  23. Kathryn

    Glory days ahead!! All this election is about is gay marriage and illegal immigration or limits to abortion!! Pick your devil!! Neither candidate is about jobs with a PLAN!

    October 24, 2012 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  24. birdmine

    the only reason romney is running for the wight house is for his overseas business. HE IS NOT CONCERN ABOUT AMERICAN PEOPLE AT ALL LIKE HE SAID IT IN CLOSE DOORS.

    October 24, 2012 07:30 pm at 7:30 pm |
  25. dman419

    I live in NC and I see Obama Bumper Stickers and yard signs out numbering Romney ones 10 to , of course I do live in the largest city.

    October 24, 2012 07:32 pm at 7:32 pm |
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