October 24th, 2012
05:07 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN shifts North Carolina to 'lean Romney'

(CNN) - Color North Carolina light red.

CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true "toss up" to "lean Romney."

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Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte.

While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn't made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September.

Last week, in a clear sign it's confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney's campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.

This week the Obama campaign denied that they were giving up on North Carolina, saying they have a "credible pathway to 50%" in the state. But some campaign officials privately acknowledge that the state, which Obama can afford to lose, is moving out of reach.

With the shift of North Carolina, CNN now estimates that Romney is leading in states with 206 electoral votes. The shift does not affect CNN's estimate that Obama is leading in states with 237 electoral votes. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

CNN is also shifting Indiana and Missouri, two states that are currently "lean Romney," to "safe Romney." Obama carried Indiana four years ago, becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state in a presidential election. And he narrowly lost Missouri to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee.

But this cycle, the Obama campaign has not seriously contested either state.

The moving of Indiana and Missouri does not affect the electoral count.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • North Carolina
soundoff (306 Responses)
  1. David

    If it's any consolation, the electoral process is ore stable and civilized now then it was in the early days. Case and point President Jefferson. Popular votes weren't even held and he lost the EC vote but the House declared him president anyway, so don't complain!

    October 24, 2012 08:44 pm at 8:44 pm |
  2. Forgetful Americans

    anne

    If Mitt gets in office he said it would take eight years for recovery.Since that is a historical fact why do people want it done in four,sounds like different rules.I cannot wait four more years so please for the working poor that cannot get insurance give Obama"s policies time to work.Clintons did remember.

    It is ridiculous how everyone admits it would take at least 8 years to recover, but somehow all the anti-Obama supporters want it magically done in four. It's just their excuse to remove him from office and start over at zero then work to eight.

    October 24, 2012 08:44 pm at 8:44 pm |
  3. josh

    Mark, The South I grew up in is far less prejudice than anything I have experienced since moving north. There is not a day that goes by that someone doesn't poke fun at my accent or discount my intelligence because of my southern 'twang. Yet, I grew up with posters of black athletes on my wall, listened to R&B music, and made friends with people because I liked them not because they were or were not of a particular race. So spare me your generalizations, characterizations, and prejudice because right now...you are the bigot.

    October 24, 2012 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  4. Tom

    NC early voting is up 22% over 2008. Over 400K new registrations since 2008 election. 2 hour waits at early voting locations. NC will be closer than anyone on either side thinks.

    October 24, 2012 08:46 pm at 8:46 pm |
  5. Reggie from LA

    No kidding/!!!!? What a surprise. Jesse Helmsville leaning Robme? I'm flabbergasted and bewildered.

    October 24, 2012 08:46 pm at 8:46 pm |
  6. Patrick in Wisconsin

    OK, Mitt will have North Carolina. At the same time, CNN should put Wisconsin and Nevada in Obama's slot since almost sure to win there.

    October 24, 2012 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  7. robert

    Mark, I will tell you it's not racial. If it were racial, then Odumbo would not have carried North Carolina in 2008. The same "racists" (as you call them) that voted for him in 2008 have taken off their rose colored blinders and realized what happens when you elect a non-experienced, anti-American community organizer to be the POTUS! I for one would vote for Condeleza Rice or Collin Powell, but I can't stomach this egotistical destroyer!

    Tak your race comments and stuff 'em!

    October 24, 2012 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  8. Charlanta

    For those truly novice demographic followers and general morons, NC is one of the more progressive states. The majority of voters live in Charlotte (70% D), RDU (85% D), Triad (50%), Asheville (90% D) and Wilmington (40% D). The state has changed dramatically over the last decade which is one reason why Obama won. However, just like most smart states who have been through hell and not all the way back, the race is tight and voters are unimpressed with the options – making this still a tight race. For those states that are overwhelmingly D or R, they are the fodder for your rebuttals and attacks. Got it, get it, good!

    October 24, 2012 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  9. Kimberly

    It amazes me that the election hasn't even occurred yet and CNN is marking swing states to one candidate or another. Don't you think all the presumptions you are making might make people stay home? Is it possible that someone reading or listening to CNN might think there is no need to vote? I understand the major states that lean one way or another, but come on already, let's not tell people what the vote is even before the physical votes takes place. But I guess the media knows everything!!!

    October 24, 2012 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  10. Name ceegod

    everybody wants to kill the black man but nobody wants to kill George W Bush. but that just show you how far this country has come. Republicans with so much hate but so much religion. total hypocritical. so much hate coming from the Republican that's all I see

    October 24, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  11. fitz

    I don't know about NC but I think South Carolina is the most racist/separatist state in the union. All those wanna be Northerners go down there and live behind their walled communities with a golf course. They actually create 'ghettoes' for themselves, totally separate from SC black people. I do not travel or spend my money in racist red states.

    October 24, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  12. Rob

    Thank you North Carolina for voting for the candidate with American values!!!

    October 24, 2012 08:51 pm at 8:51 pm |
  13. Sheon1

    I want my money back!
    I am so tired of the govt giving my tax dollars to red states to pay for their out of wedlock kids, their bias schools, false teeth for meth heads!
    I don't want to pay for anymore of your roads, bridges or your police.
    I want to keep my money in my state and build it up!
    You can have Robot Romney, just send me my money back!

    October 24, 2012 08:51 pm at 8:51 pm |
  14. Say it ain't so

    That's a load of bull, i don't buy it but then these days you can hardly buy anything anymore.

    October 24, 2012 08:51 pm at 8:51 pm |
  15. fitz

    CNN seemed to go over to the dark side about the middle of last week. An amazing change in biased headlines, etc. What is up with this? I think they see themselves losing to Fox on one side and MSNBC on the other. So they are looking at the Fox group and heading in that direction. for shame.

    October 24, 2012 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  16. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    Given these changes, it still means tht Romney has a harder shot at winning. There are many more ways for Obama to get reelected.

    October 24, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  17. silvertrueone

    So sad this whole campaign has been nothing but raceist from day one the idiot Trump,and Rush,Bachamnn,Coutler,the lady who can see our biggest foe from her backyard those two evil brothers who went to N.C to segregate the schools in Wake N.C this is one of many things that will happen if Mitt wins,besides goverment telling women what they can't do with bodies armed forces be dammed because they are the 47% end of social security end of this country as we know it.What about Mitt in his role as Bishop telling a young woman she had to turn over her child to the chruch because child wa born out of wedlock yes their is a film on this also a film on those two evil brothers but you wont see thison faux news.If Mitt wins wonder how long it will be before he wants war .

    October 24, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  18. Sheon1

    How sad people don't vote in their best interest!

    October 24, 2012 08:55 pm at 8:55 pm |
  19. rconatser1

    Lived in NC for eight years. The Civil War is very much alive!!!

    October 24, 2012 08:59 pm at 8:59 pm |
  20. Daveta

    I agree with you Mark....I live in NC and race is defintely an issue here!

    October 24, 2012 08:59 pm at 8:59 pm |
  21. Boyd Crowder

    Those low information Grits, puffing on their Winstons from JR's ....do have a way of voting against their Best Interests !

    October 24, 2012 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  22. Jeffrey2012

    You just as we'll add Florida and Virginia to leans Romney. Actually, I heard NC was leaning Romney at least a week or two ago. Seems like CNN is lagging what other polls have already indicated.

    October 24, 2012 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  23. Randy

    I lived all across NC and now I am in OH. Race is just as big an issue in OH as in NC. Everyone wants to talk about the racist South, but they ignore that racism is everywhere. Drive around SW OH and you notice something, Romney support is dominate in the white suburbs while he is ignored in the urban communities. If Obama is losing NC because of racism, he is still leading in OH because of racism!

    October 24, 2012 09:06 pm at 9:06 pm |
  24. griffbos

    if the tend continues we will have a new President come January

    October 24, 2012 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  25. Greenspam

    Obama has no one to blame for himself. The most important night of his political life – the first debate, and he just "had a bad night"? Give me a break.

    October 24, 2012 09:10 pm at 9:10 pm |
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