October 24th, 2012
05:07 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN shifts North Carolina to 'lean Romney'

(CNN) - Color North Carolina light red.

CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true "toss up" to "lean Romney."

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Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte.

While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn't made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September.

Last week, in a clear sign it's confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney's campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.

This week the Obama campaign denied that they were giving up on North Carolina, saying they have a "credible pathway to 50%" in the state. But some campaign officials privately acknowledge that the state, which Obama can afford to lose, is moving out of reach.

With the shift of North Carolina, CNN now estimates that Romney is leading in states with 206 electoral votes. The shift does not affect CNN's estimate that Obama is leading in states with 237 electoral votes. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

CNN is also shifting Indiana and Missouri, two states that are currently "lean Romney," to "safe Romney." Obama carried Indiana four years ago, becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state in a presidential election. And he narrowly lost Missouri to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee.

But this cycle, the Obama campaign has not seriously contested either state.

The moving of Indiana and Missouri does not affect the electoral count.

– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • North Carolina
soundoff (306 Responses)
  1. Meki60

    looks like NC wants to save America, please move forward for Romney.

    October 24, 2012 09:10 pm at 9:10 pm |
  2. jamesr1976

    Wow, hatin' on the South. The South is conservative, why would we not vote for the conservative candidate? Actually, NC gave Obama a chance last time but knows better now. Do you believe that everybody that does not vote for the president is just a racist? Liberals can't grasp and don't respect another's point of view . Prepare yourselves, Romney will win all the toss up states and some blue states too.

    October 24, 2012 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  3. Jeffrey2012

    Mark. Race is not an issue but historically high and persistent unemployment is. Mark my wife is of a different race than I, yet I am not voting for Obama. Do you think it possible that other people could be voting for Romney for the same reasons I am? Do you think it's ok that 95% of blacks are voting for Obama? Is it ok to vote someone because they are same race you are but not ok to not vote for someone because they are a different race than you are?

    October 24, 2012 09:12 pm at 9:12 pm |
  4. Zwei Stein

    I like North Carolina. Beautiful country, wonderful people. Don't want to see them get hurt or used. So please, vote your own mind and your own interest. The TV pundits, the self-proclaimed prophets, the professional politicians ... all are self-serving. Serve your OWN best interest and please DO VOTE. See you at the polls. I'll be the guy with the Starbucks in my hand.

    October 24, 2012 09:12 pm at 9:12 pm |
  5. Mr Mac

    NC 'leaning' Romney? Too funny....... it will be a landslide.... bye, bye Hussein Obama....

    October 24, 2012 09:17 pm at 9:17 pm |
  6. chili lugo

    Gurgyl, Mark & Minnesota Linda ... Are you guys speech writers for Obama? Much easier to add nothing to a conversation by demonizing those who disagree with you than actually saying something intelligent.

    October 24, 2012 09:19 pm at 9:19 pm |
  7. florida815

    Florida women are not turning back the hand of time. My body, my vote! Obama 2012!

    October 24, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  8. HJ For Man

    North Carolina,
    You are the state with the Research Triangle, the invention of heavier than air flight, and the epitome of what the New South was supposed to be. Don't go backwards. Reelect a flawed but better man, who is moving us forward. Be positive.

    October 24, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  9. Aaron

    @realDonaldTrump says: Glad to hear North Carolina is solid for @MittRomney. It started trending for Mitt solidly after my speech at the @NCGOP convention.

    October 24, 2012 09:24 pm at 9:24 pm |
  10. NauticalMan

    Funny how the red states almost always vote against their own interests. Think us folks in the blue states should pass laws that we should get back at least what we pay out instead of sending our money to the red states so they can vote against what is good for this country. Mitt was a horrible governor here in MA, although if you listen to him talk now he was the best we ever had. Not in a million years. He will say anything to become President, true or not. Had a talk the other day with an old childhood friend who stated Obama is a Muslim, a socialist, and that all those horrible stories on the internet about him are mostly true. Facts do not matter with these folks, opinions are better than facts. I shudder to think what will become of us if he takes office.

    October 24, 2012 09:31 pm at 9:31 pm |
  11. Stevie

    I am a white married women from NC. I went and voted fro Obama. I'm sick of people assuming that because NC is leaning red that it is "racial".

    October 24, 2012 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  12. Anthony Brancato

    The real reason Obama is on The View and Letterman and Leno. He is on his Farewell Tour.

    October 24, 2012 09:38 pm at 9:38 pm |
  13. sellsword

    OH NOOOO

    OHIO might not matter....

    P.S. VA is going to Romney too!

    October 24, 2012 09:39 pm at 9:39 pm |
  14. mj

    My husband and I, North Carolina residents, waited in line for over an hour to vote yesterday. All the people we spoke with were so disgusted with Obama and his failure to accomplish anything over the last four years was a major reason we, and other North Carolina residents, stood to end the Socialistic Policies of Obama. Obama has lied and deceived all of America.

    October 24, 2012 09:40 pm at 9:40 pm |
  15. McSwayne

    As a democrat I will stay home this time...greetings from Wrightsville Beach, NC. Its amazing the Romney signs I see now compared to the Obama signs 4 yrs ago. despite the lib medias desperate attempts to mke you believe it, O just isn't getting things done

    October 24, 2012 09:41 pm at 9:41 pm |
  16. Lals

    Didn't Mitt give up in that state a wek ago and send people in his camp there else where ?? maybe these people are happy his snake oil tour has left their great state. Besides who the hell cares except what happens on Nov 6th. These predictors are no better than NFL anyalist predicting games.

    October 24, 2012 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  17. David from NC

    Charlotte and Raleigh are two of the five fastest growing cities in the country, a lot of people that are moving here are from the 'Rust Belt'. Nearly half the population in these cities aren't from NC. Anyway, I was an Obama voter in 2008, but will not be voting for him in this election...he has been a huge disappointment. His signing of the NDAA, increasing the troops in Afghanistan, killing Americans with drone strikes, making it legal for indefinite detention of US citizens, etc. He has been just as bad as GWB, I will not make the mistake to vote for him again.

    October 24, 2012 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  18. CJ

    Merrilltech... the difference is we already know Obama has done a bad job. Romney hasn't been elected yet. If he screws things up, we can vote him out in four years too! But for some to sit there and try to say that Obama has done a good job? Its just sticking their heads in the sand. I will give Romney a chance.

    October 24, 2012 09:46 pm at 9:46 pm |
  19. Rob

    GO NORTH CAROLINA! I lived in Raleigh in the 70's and they are GREAT people. I am so proud of them for making the right decision at the right time in their history.

    October 24, 2012 09:47 pm at 9:47 pm |
  20. Rob

    People who say race is an issue. They say that you must be racist if you don't like Obama. Not sure of your reasoning there. Why is it not possible to just not like his policies? Also, this would make more sense if he didn't win the state just 4 years ago. What? Do they have an entirely new population now that was different in 2008?

    October 24, 2012 09:49 pm at 9:49 pm |
  21. David

    The red Communist states belong in China! Fertile grounds for a Romney dictatorship!

    October 24, 2012 09:53 pm at 9:53 pm |
  22. Rob

    Mark, we are all ashamed of YOU.

    October 24, 2012 09:54 pm at 9:54 pm |
  23. Marcelo Payamps Sr.

    I am republicano and my vote is for mett ronney

    October 24, 2012 09:54 pm at 9:54 pm |
  24. Rob

    This shouldn't even be close. Look at that map. The vast majority of all of the states are voting for Romney. If not for a very few, higher population (i.e. higher electoral votes), Romney would/should win in a landslide. This system is messed up.

    October 24, 2012 09:55 pm at 9:55 pm |
  25. mani varghese

    OBAMA and democrats have the idea of equalizing the wealth from rich to poor by socialistic agenda. This country is founded as capitalist country. grandma to grandchildren live on welfare, free supply of candoms and cell phones for under aged children, making babies out of wedlock and tattoos and earrings, nose rings, tongue rings, and what not. No displine or charector in any areas of life. No family value treat people like dogs. Come on guys wake up. Its time for people to unite and stand for freedom, respect and peace. 4 years enough for Obama. Vote for Mit Romney.

    October 24, 2012 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
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