(CNN) - Color North Carolina light red.
CNN is moving its classification of the swing state from true "toss up" to "lean Romney."
– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker
– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.
Four years ago then Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina in a presidential election. And this summer the Democrats held their nominating convention in Charlotte.
While the Obama campaign continues to run ads in North Carolina, spending just over $1.2 million to run spots over the past week, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending for CNN, the president hasn't made a campaign stop in the state since his nomination at the Democratic convention in early September.
Last week, in a clear sign it's confident about turning the state from blue to red, Republican nominee Mitt Romney's campaign moved its North Carolina spokesman out of the state and planned to shift more staffers to other states.
This week the Obama campaign denied that they were giving up on North Carolina, saying they have a "credible pathway to 50%" in the state. But some campaign officials privately acknowledge that the state, which Obama can afford to lose, is moving out of reach.
With the shift of North Carolina, CNN now estimates that Romney is leading in states with 206 electoral votes. The shift does not affect CNN's estimate that Obama is leading in states with 237 electoral votes. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House.
CNN is also shifting Indiana and Missouri, two states that are currently "lean Romney," to "safe Romney." Obama carried Indiana four years ago, becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to win the state in a presidential election. And he narrowly lost Missouri to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 GOP nominee.
But this cycle, the Obama campaign has not seriously contested either state.
The moving of Indiana and Missouri does not affect the electoral count.
– CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report
Also on the CNN Political Ticker
– GOP Senate candidate accuses Dems of distorting his rape comments
– Clint Eastwood returns, stars in new super PAC ad
– Obama ad uses ghost of recount past
From CNN Politics
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| Advertising practices | Advertise with us | About us | Work for us | Help
I live in NC. I am not rich by any means, but I understand basic economics. I do have a 4 year degree (to those who think people from NC are undereducated.) Our current President, and thus his policies, could, and have, been a detriment to our economy. I bellieve we have the right to persue happiness, however we are in no way entitled to it. As Americans we need to believe in ourselves, and vote for someone who can truely bring this country back to prosperity for everyone. We are entitled to the freedom to vote, and I do hope we vote to continue that freedom.
The people in North Carolina aren't strong enough to fight the extremism in the GOP. They are just weak. They probably don't want unions rather accept lower wages with few or no benefits. The women don't care about making decisions about their own body. They are fine with the government making the decisions for them. They believe the lies that the rich are out there creating jobs for the middle class.
I am from Donican Republic, but my vote is Republicano.
I live in North Carolina and once again they have made the wrong choice, this time with Romney. It's hard being someone with common sense living in a state that seems to of lost theirs. I blame the bible belt.
You are correct, Mark, race is an issue in this election, just as it was in 2008. That is how Obama won the last election, by making it about race. It sure was about race to the elderly African American woman in line to vote in front of me in 2008 who asked me to take her picture because it was the first time she was ever voting! Yep, it is about race to many voting Democrats!
Why is this a surprise? North Carolina was close last time, and Obama does not have the same popularity as he did last time. Very few states show Obama as popular as in 2008 - that's the reality of 2012. A bad economy may be improving, but it's not good yet. There are other things, too - but the issues don't matter.
The reality is that North Carolina is not as pro-Obama as it was last time. Since he only won by a few points last time, he is unlikely to win this time. Everybody knew this a year ago, and it hasn't changed.
Mark – race is not an issue there...if it were, Obama would not have carried the state 2008.
For those of you slamming North Carolina for being "very racial", please allow me to point out that we've had explosive population growth due to people moving from New York and New Jersey. We even have people moving from California! Gee, shouldn't that translate into a more liberal, less-biased population? Hmmm. Race relations aren't perfect, but before you go slamming the Old North State, perhaps you should look at your own state or commonwealth. I'm sure those of you making these snarky statements live in a place far from perfect.
Mark – you're ashamed of America? Get over yourself...
goodbye mr. racist president, good bye democratic party – killers of babies deserve no less than total defeat in November.
NC was never Obama's – what are these people talking about? Obama DOES NOT need NC to win...only Ohio and PA
the house of cards are about to fall!
I sincerely hope the polls are wrong.
I made an observation some would agree with...the last election, we observed Romney sweating a lot and Obama drawing blood.
Talk about the country's naval strength was embarrassing...it was what I would call a "Palin esque" moment..."bayonets and horses"...you can't be that stupid Mr. Romney or are you?
Who was and is smarter, more deliberate, thoughtful , problem solving leader
So, consistent leads in Nevada and Ohio don't justify saying that they lean Obama, but a short-term lead with the same spread justifies saying that NC leans Romney? I mean it doesn't really matter, but for a network under attack for trying too hard to make everything a dead-heat horserace, this doesn't make sense.
Go Romney! Romney will win iwith a lanslide!
We are with you North Carolina – go with Romney!
Race is NOT an issue in the South. Herman Cain was doing very well in the South. The South is conservative; it will vote that way (white, black, or brown).
I love to entertain the thought that Big O will win by a landslide- and when you ask the pollster didn't you favor Romney they can answer; "Oh, I lied".
I will see : Romney going to win.
There are very liberal parts of North Carolina, like Asheville. I've traveled all over the world and rarely have I encountered such a dense collection of awesome food and beer.
Obama doesn't need NC
THE REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTORAL MAP. The toss up states
Where votes really matter. Obama leads in 8 out of 10.
PA (20 electoral votes) – RCP Average 49.7 44.7 Obama +5.0
OH (18 electoral votes) – RCP Average 48.4 46.0 Obama +2.4
MI (16 electoral votes) – RCP Average 48.6 43.6 Obama +5.0
WI (10 electoral votes) – RCP Average 50.0 47.2Obama +2.8
IA (6 electoral votes) – RCP Average 49.3 46.0 Obama +3.3
NV (6 electoral votes) – RCP Average 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0
VA (13 electoral votes) – RCP Average 48.4 47.6 Obama +0.8
NH (4 electoral votes) – RCP Average 48.3 47.5 Obama +0.8
CO (9 electoral votes) – RCP Average 47.9 47.7 Romney +0.2
FL (29 electoral votes) – RCP Average 49.3 46.8 Romney +2.5
YOU DO THE MATH
Being familiar with the typical North Carolina mindset, I'd not only say that race is a factor in this election as far as they're concerned , I'd say it's THE MOST important factor for many of them. Of course, getting people to admit that is like pulling teeth...
CNN is no better than MSNBC, they only mention the polls that show the widest margin of victory for Obama. Not the 5 other polls that show it nearly tied:
10/23/12 Poll – Rasmussen Reports: 48 Obama 48 Romney – Tie
10/21/12 Poll – SurveyUSA: 47 Obama 44 Romney – +3 Obama
10/21/12 Poll – Suffolk: 48 Obama 48 Romney – Tie
10/20/12 Poll – PPP: 49 Obama 48 Romney – +1 Obama
10/19/12 Poll – Gravis Marketing: 47 Romney 47 Obama – Tie
Concentrating on poll results for this presidential election is an exercise in futility. Do better to flip a coin. Same odds.