October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Jose

    With Ohio and Wisconsin now near the 50 percent for Obama, if this trend stays that way two more weeks: GAME OVER!!!

    October 25, 2012 06:31 am at 6:31 am |
  2. Rhino

    Times is a far left liberal mouthpiece no credibility just like the rolling stone

    October 25, 2012 06:31 am at 6:31 am |
  3. Get Real

    These polls are a joke, these are the same polls that predicted Kerry would win OH in 2004(didn't happen) and that Strickland would win the GOV in 2010(didn't happen), and that the congressional races in 2010 would all end with Dem wins(didn't happen) in fact if I recall the 2010 results the Dems got smacked 23-1 after the results.

    October 25, 2012 06:33 am at 6:33 am |
  4. mb2010a

    Obama 2012...Ohio will go to Obama.

    October 25, 2012 06:40 am at 6:40 am |
  5. Rob Lindholm

    I'm curious how the race is within the margin of error (3%) if the gap between the two candidates is 5%? Nice try spinning this poll CNN, its farther apart than you think....

    Obama 2012

    October 25, 2012 06:41 am at 6:41 am |
  6. Hugh Mongous

    Time magazine ?!? How about something based in reality.

    October 25, 2012 06:51 am at 6:51 am |
  7. independent

    no one wants a flip floper as President, you never know what u r gonna get

    OBAMA BIDEN 2012

    October 25, 2012 07:22 am at 7:22 am |
  8. James

    5 point edge???–Baloney–

    October 25, 2012 07:25 am at 7:25 am |
  9. Indiana Voter

    The only reason Ohio is finally starting to turn around economically is because the people of Ohio elected a Republican governor a while back. Unfortunately, they want to reward Obama for that, and Obama is taking credit, but people should realize it is because the state went Republican last time, on the state level.

    October 25, 2012 07:36 am at 7:36 am |
  10. Jt_flyer

    The republican candidates just don't get it. Ohio is not Florida. Ohio women will never vote for a mullah who's trying to take their rights away. Stay the freek away from a woman's body you cave people.

    October 25, 2012 07:39 am at 7:39 am |
  11. Don

    Not only is the President holding his lead in OH, but R0mney is losing his lead in both Florida and Virginia. Check the polls folks, I don't like them either, but its all we have to go by until election night.

    In Las Vegas, where the odds makers do NOT play politics (millions are on the line) – the odds are over 3 to 1 in favor of reelection. Again, check this online for yourself, sports fans.

    October 25, 2012 07:45 am at 7:45 am |
  12. SugarKube

    CNN is in the tank for Romney. They will be so embarrassed in November.

    October 25, 2012 07:49 am at 7:49 am |
  13. SugarKube

    Obama lost women by 16 points in since the debates.

    October 25, 2012 07:50 am at 7:50 am |
  14. Jay

    Ohio is smart, they are not fooled by the multiple mitts

    October 25, 2012 07:50 am at 7:50 am |
  15. Beverly

    Shouldn't this be against the law ? Time Magazine has a poll out for Ohio. The poll is weighted 9% for Obama. In the poll they say Obama is winning independents 53 % to Romney's 38%. But if you go to the real poll. The numbers for Independents are Romney 55% and Obama 32%. Now they are just lying about their own polls. They continue to say the poll is not weighted. But it clearly is. 273 Democrats and 206 Republicans.

    October 25, 2012 07:52 am at 7:52 am |
  16. Will

    Poll favors Romney, "He's the man!!" Polls show him behind, "These polls aren't accurate. There fixed for the president!"
    So as long as your man is ahead then the polls are spot on but when the wings can't get any lift, there rigged. Beautiful! If you are reading this and it upsets you, then I'm talking to you. Obama/Biden/America 2012

    October 25, 2012 07:56 am at 7:56 am |
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