October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. drjmng

    ...and then I realized that it was a poll by Time magazine.

    October 24, 2012 11:43 pm at 11:43 pm |
  2. Mark

    Romney will win in Ohio... I am voting for Romney in Ohio. Get out of Office, Socialism, Liberialism, Liar Obama!

    October 24, 2012 11:44 pm at 11:44 pm |
  3. JT

    Time says it all, I'm surprised they didn't have Obama up by 50.

    October 24, 2012 11:45 pm at 11:45 pm |
  4. JD

    Polls don't mean anything. I hate how they are used to manipulate the public. I've lied to pollsters before and I don't think I'm the only one.

    October 24, 2012 11:49 pm at 11:49 pm |
  5. tbrnotb

    Rasmussen poll is the most right leaning poll in America! Go to fivethirtyeight.com for the really accurate stuff. Oh and reggiedw....you wish. I live in Ohio and it is going for Obama.

    October 24, 2012 11:50 pm at 11:50 pm |
  6. Buckhippo

    blows my mind people would vote for romney

    October 24, 2012 11:52 pm at 11:52 pm |
  7. Cari

    Seriously I don't understand why people want 4 more years of this....high unemployment, housing sucks, financial chaos, overseas hates us, gas is sky high, food prices almost double....can someone please tell me why you're voting for Obama...I don't get it.

    October 24, 2012 11:53 pm at 11:53 pm |
  8. blake

    Exclude the 10% Democratic voter over sampling. How does the poll look now?

    October 24, 2012 11:57 pm at 11:57 pm |
  9. Donkey Party

    "Critical Thinking" thinks Rasmussen is a real polling organization. Just goes to show how delusional and ignorant the typical right-wing knuckle-dragger is.

    October 25, 2012 12:00 am at 12:00 am |
  10. JimB

    Why isn't this momentum for Obama? It seems the media keeps talking about Romney momentum which seems the Romney campaign strategy to support. Really, Obama still maintains leads in most swing states. With Mourdock and Trump Romney has currently lost the focus and any momentum he had.

    October 25, 2012 12:04 am at 12:04 am |
  11. Bib Boogg

    tick, tick, tick. I'm starting to wonder if the President will even win his own state.

    October 25, 2012 12:14 am at 12:14 am |
  12. Lloyd

    Ummmm....just from a logic perspective....look at slide 3 in the poll....
    2 problems:
    1) shows a sample where 20% voted early (SOS says doubtful that will be the TOTAL early voters, much less those who have already early voted)
    2) When you include even those number, the likely totals are 281 Obama; 280 Romney....

    Wishful thinking on their part, CNN shold really do a better job of checking behind the articles they publish as 'fact' especially with such an incorrect headline.

    October 25, 2012 12:23 am at 12:23 am |
  13. Robert

    Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were tied neck and neck in the polls on Nov, 3rd, 1980-the day before the election.

    Reagan won with 489 electoral votes.

    Polls don't mean SQUAT!

    October 25, 2012 12:25 am at 12:25 am |
  14. Gail

    Ohio, the survival of the American dream is in your hands. my vote in California doesn't mean as much as your's does. Save the America that believes in getting rich for remarkable new products that add value to our lives, fair play, equal pay and respects women and minority interests. I was a Republican for 27 years...they don't have a place for me anymore so I had to finally get a divorce. Obama is the only choice or women will no longer have a choice.

    October 25, 2012 12:31 am at 12:31 am |
  15. E=MC2

    Amazing how the liberal press and Obama campaign has poisoned so many minds. Romney is probably one of the most honest politicians we have ever had. How naive the liberals are. Sorry, but it is true, Romney will win both the popular vote and the electoral college vote.....by a landslide. It's time we had leadership and character in the White House.

    October 25, 2012 12:32 am at 12:32 am |
  16. Ren

    Can't believe Romney is trailing Obama in OH. He should be 5 points ahead at least! i mean, seriously, he is the most coherent,honest, charismatic presidential candidate this country has ever seen.

    …Just kidding. OBAMA 2012, WAKE UP AMERICA!!!

    October 25, 2012 12:41 am at 12:41 am |
  17. SM

    As a well informed Ohio resident, born and raised, I can tell you this: The one thing Ohioans want most right now is for all of these commercials to stop and to get both of these guys out of our state. They'll never come back once they're elected anyways.

    90% of all tv commercials in this state are election related, and these guys are tying up our rush hour traffic with their road and highway closures for their massive motorcades. The only people turning out for these rallies are the people who have already made up their minds anyways.

    I think i speak for most Ohioans when I say, I sure cant wait for this circus to be over regardless of which way people want to vote.

    October 25, 2012 12:42 am at 12:42 am |
  18. Ryan

    Read the transcript of the interview Obama gave to the Register. You will see the true character of the man.

    October 25, 2012 12:45 am at 12:45 am |
  19. Wayland Yan

    If Romney supporters don't believe any other poll,; a poll conducted by Fox after the 2nd debate on Oct. 16th has Obama ahead 46%-43%. I guess Fox must be another Liberal media source Romney supporters and Republicans can't believe. Limbaugh maybe a closet Liberal. OMG, the world is coming to an end.

    October 25, 2012 12:46 am at 12:46 am |
  20. JM

    They use the D+9 because registered democrats _outnumber_ registered Republicans in Ohio. If you're complaining about "Democrat oversampling" in these polls....please do consider that democrat and republican populations are not, in fact, equal. Not even close. The repbulican population has been _decimated_ by the craziness of the tea party–the reason why the independents are favoring Romney is because many of them are Republican expatriots.. I'd also encourage you to look up the last Ohio Poll from '08 by Rasmussen. It showed a tie also.

    October 25, 2012 12:48 am at 12:48 am |
  21. Green Erg

    CNN is desperate. When a poll comes up where Mitt is tied with Obama, they ignore it. But when Time Magazine brings up a poll conducted by a company nobody has ever heard of, CNN publicizes it 24/7. Does CNN really believe that people do not see that they are pro Democrat? I think it comes down to intelligence...

    October 25, 2012 12:56 am at 12:56 am |
  22. Darrell

    Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.....Obama-Biden 2012

    October 25, 2012 01:03 am at 1:03 am |
  23. Do it to the Music

    Watching Ohio, but theres more than one way to skin a cat. Read my lips people Repub, Dem or Indy Barak Hussein Obam will not win this election. By hook or by crook Mr. Hussein's destiny lies elsewhere besides the residence @ 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    Proof you say? America is Fed up and America always has a way of purging the ranks of people who stank, one way or another. One way or another. You feel me aack?

    October 25, 2012 01:07 am at 1:07 am |
  24. sharon

    Tell me how can someone has already won a state like NC and voting still going on? wow!!!!!

    October 25, 2012 01:12 am at 1:12 am |
  25. Truth Partner 12

    Why are 35 days allowed for voting? Is that so that there is more time to work voter fraud? I'm saying this because there are 4 counties in OH with more registered voters than adults...

    October 25, 2012 01:13 am at 1:13 am |
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