October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. souptwins

    So where are the CNN reports of all the other polls showing a tie in Ohio? Silly me! That wouldn't show what they want everyone to believe.

    October 25, 2012 01:18 am at 1:18 am |
  2. Rod

    C'mon Ohio, help save the county. Vote Romney!

    October 25, 2012 01:19 am at 1:19 am |
  3. coco3

    Considering it's Time that is doing that poll....I take it with a huge grain of salt.....ROMNEY 2012

    October 25, 2012 01:21 am at 1:21 am |
  4. Leroy

    Romney trails Obama and that's the way it will remain. Ohioans have Obama's back!

    October 25, 2012 01:40 am at 1:40 am |
  5. Leroy

    Romney is trailing both in Michigan and Massachusetts, his ex-home states. Ohio could care less for Romney and his phony baloney campaign rhetoric.

    October 25, 2012 01:42 am at 1:42 am |
  6. Consequence

    Romney will be better for Ohio than Obama ever promised he woud be. A stronger supporter of energy independence, job creation and small, medium and large business growth and a record of leadership to match his promises, Romney will get Ohio buzzing. At least of half of Ohioans already know this, as for the rest, i wish them the stroke of "sudden enlightenment" they need to bet on a better future for Ohio.

    October 25, 2012 01:57 am at 1:57 am |
  7. J.V.Hodgson

    Rasmussen polls notoriously lean like the tower of PISA. Permanently towards Republicans.
    RCP /NBC News/Marist have Obama ahead comfortably. This makes Republicans uncomfortable/ angry even because, lose Ohio, and the electoral college = Obama wins. Its been said over and over without OHIO Romney loses.
    I know that upsets DJ Phil and critical thinking ... life is tough losers!! Just like Romney you cannot do the math!! On budgets or election likely outcomes,
    Regards,
    Hodgson.

    October 25, 2012 02:01 am at 2:01 am |
  8. kamarasune

    Ohio should be asking why a bill was introduced to seal Obama's presidential records right before this election....

    October 25, 2012 02:10 am at 2:10 am |
  9. Lee Coles

    lol Well, it isn't only Time that has President Obama ahead in Ohio. President Obama has basically been ahead in the polls all along in Ohio. Certainly the lead has narrowed for him, but the trend is still very much in President Obama's favor, especially when looking at the early voting results so far.

    As to how Mr. Romney might be able to win if he loses Ohio, it is TRUE that there are other paths to winning for Mr. Romney as Mr. Stantorum–sorry if I am spelling that incorrectly–states. however, if you do the math, or simply look at it as presented in the video, the chances of Mr. Romney winning without Ohio are slim to none. He just wasn't able to say that on national television. But then, who would actually expect him to say such a thing unless he had decided to commit political suicide or turn democrat:)?

    October 25, 2012 02:10 am at 2:10 am |
  10. Dejavu65

    Lets go Ohio continue to support the middle class and 99% of Americans....The GOP if everybody takes time to do real research has policies to benefit the Rich..no thanks....Obama/Biden 2012!

    October 25, 2012 02:38 am at 2:38 am |
  11. J.V.Hodgson

    I think also its time to look at some Senate more than likely changes. Maine gets an independent Senator with democratic leanings , looks like Warren will defeat Brown in Massachusetts, and Mourdock could easily lose..That would make a Republican Senate majority virtually impossible.
    That said I also see some rebellion against tea party candidates in the House elections... thier popularity has dwindled a lot especially with women voters. Could be wrong. but this election is going to be totally different to 2008 and 2010.
    My guess is House Republicans much lower majority and Senate Democrats slight increased in majority.
    And finally Obam Biden re-elected.
    Less than 2 weeks to go!! Thank god, I auto turn off any political ad on TV. they are a sickening waste of time AND MONEY, with so many untruths, twisting facts, it is a moral disgrace BOTH SIDES.
    As of now I have some key issues from the three debates so my voter strategy is to go to the fact check independent sites and look at evaluations on my key questions. I particlulary pay attention to Pants on fire, 4 Pinnochios and completely true, and may search other very specific of interest to me items in debates or rallies I look in on for both parties.
    On taxes and budget deficit/debt I go to TPC and the CBO. and here Romney Ryan are too unspecific therefore dont get my vote, especially when the TPC says it dont add up and is budget deficit increasing QED debt increasing, and increases middle class taxes, at least at my income level.
    Sorry we are in a mess and for now the rich need to pay more not Mr. and Mrs average. That 47 % I dont care about includes me so get lost Republicans.
    Regards,
    hodgson.

    October 25, 2012 03:08 am at 3:08 am |
  12. NameAlbrit

    Americans have only two weeks to vote,they will choice President Obama or 100% LIAR Romney.

    October 25, 2012 03:09 am at 3:09 am |
  13. Wilbur in Seattle

    We can still buy a Chevy. Bank of America and AIG are still in business. Bin Laden is dead. The war in Iraq is over. Obama has had an outstanding 4 years.

    October 25, 2012 03:45 am at 3:45 am |
  14. John

    Obama will be the next president. N – y times have him at 70.1 percent winning.

    October 25, 2012 03:46 am at 3:46 am |
  15. Brian

    With the early voting, Ohio is as good as Obama's. It'd take some huge jump for Romney to get it and he needs it. CNN wants a horse race so they're content to tip NC to Romney, but they won't tip WI, NV, or OH to Obama because that means 'the election is over'. If they tip WI to Obama, its a barometer for the rest of the region. That one is just as much or more of a lock for Obama as NC is for Romney. Pity about NC though, nice cities but too many rural rednecks. I was down there awhile and I hate that they're voting Romney. Lots of pretty, smart young ladies in the Tri-Cities who are voting Obama though : )

    October 25, 2012 03:47 am at 3:47 am |
  16. Anonymous

    Romney’s Plan to let GM & Chrysler go through bankruptcy like 7-Eleven, Macy’s, and Continental Airlines was intended to allow Detroit to come out of Bankruptcy stronger.
    Obama did take GM & Chrysler into Bankruptcy. As the shareholders of GM's common stock know quite well, with Obama's plan, they lost everything they had invested. You cannot tell them Obama did not take GM into Bankruptcy.
    The truth is that, even though there were significant differences between Romney’s suggested/recommended bankruptcy plan and Obama’s executed Bankruptcy plan, both plans had the end goal for bringing Detroit (GM & Chrysler) out of bankruptcy with the American Auto Industry much stronger and better able to compete with foreign auto manufacturers.
    The truth is that Romney’s sincere intent was to save Detroit, not destroy it. To claim anything else defies logic.
    Obama’s assertion that Romney wanted to bury Detroit is an unethical attempt to gain political advantage by presenting a distorted/unrealistic interpretation of Romney’s intent.

    October 25, 2012 03:52 am at 3:52 am |
  17. Elle

    I sure hope they don't "Al Gore" him cause I'm moving to Toronto if Mitten Romney wins. I can't take anymore from the "Red".

    October 25, 2012 04:36 am at 4:36 am |
  18. mjb

    LOL, really, Rasmussen and Pew (most accurate last 3 elections) has them tied at 48%. Given my personal observation, the number of people who voted for barry 4 years ago and those who are now voting for Romney, I would say Rasmussen has it right. Columbus , Ohio

    October 25, 2012 05:23 am at 5:23 am |
  19. Conchytonker

    Romney is pulling even or ahead in every swing state. Nov 6th will be a Electoral College and Popular Vote blowout by Romney.....Move over McGovern (RIP by the way), here comes Barack.

    October 25, 2012 05:26 am at 5:26 am |
  20. geladius

    The Romneys own the Ohio state voting machines. I dare them to screw with the polls there. They'll have a mob of angry people ready to recreate the French revolution with some fresh heads at the guillotine.

    October 25, 2012 05:32 am at 5:32 am |
  21. kamarasune

    They are probably alarmed with the recent bill that would allow Obama to seal his presidential records which totally contradicts Obama's campaign promise of more transparency....

    October 25, 2012 05:37 am at 5:37 am |
  22. kamarasune

    Obama has been Bush 2.0. Why would we want another 4 yrs. of that after having gone through 16 already?

    October 25, 2012 05:41 am at 5:41 am |
  23. Josaphat Daniels

    Ohio's got Obama's back, romney's on his own.

    October 25, 2012 05:56 am at 5:56 am |
  24. you mean Iowa?

    Ohio? where is this place Joe Biden says he has been in Iowa for the last few days and "here in Iowa", but yet the lemmings in Ohio will vote for nobama

    October 25, 2012 06:02 am at 6:02 am |
  25. clearly obvious

    And everyone seems to miss CNN 8%+ Republican sample in there post debate flash poles. Also someone explain to Wolf that when you are beaten outside the margin of error, that it is not "basically a draw", its a win for whoever is on the higher side of the margin. CNN has been Romney Campaign spokespeople since Spring. Enjoy the low and lowering ratings you bring with your pro right sympathy called integrity driven journalism. What a Joke.

    October 25, 2012 06:31 am at 6:31 am |
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