October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. nick

    Don' know about CNN anymore. Calling the debate 48% to 42 % a tie and what was the reason for showing the Sahib missile right in the middle of the debate analysis. Geez what were they trying to show or proove. Way out of place.

    October 24, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  2. Steve Miller

    Mr. Romney has plenty to worry about in the state of Ohio.Literally every poll has shown Obama ahead in the past two months.The very best poll for Romney has been Rasmussen,and that poll has only showed a tie for Romney,and not ahead.Plus,Rasmussen is a very heavily republican leaning poll,regardless of what the other postings will tell you.With less than 2 weeks until election,virtually 100% of people have made their minds up already.Obama being ahead in every poll at this point in the game is devastating to the Romney campaign.I have no doubt that Romney telling the auto industry to take a hike will be his doom in Ohio.

    October 24, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  3. Milton K. Wiah

    When Romney won the first debate by shifting position every liberal said he won. But when Obama won
    the second the conservative said he did not win and the third.
    They were happy when Romney was ahead and they do not believe in poll or wrong.

    October 24, 2012 06:08 pm at 6:08 pm |
  4. Keith

    @Critical Thinking

    "Here are results from a real polling organization."

    Do you know that your so called "real" organization does robo calling and does not call cell phones and does not call people back if they were out which means younger people that are out more are under sampled. The right is going to be in for shock come electon night because while Obama won't win as big as he did in 08, he is going to win bigger than the polls are indicatiing or about as big as the polls that include cell phones are indicating.

    October 24, 2012 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  5. nmmell08

    CriticalThinking: Nate Silver, the leading poll guy in this nation has shown Rasmussen for what they really are. They are biased to the right. Were in 2010 by almost 4 points. Methodology is bad, don't call cell phones enough, underwritten by Fox News. Its not just good polling. So by that standard, it is more likely that Rasmussen is off by 4 points. I haven't seen a poll with Romney up since early October in OH. And also Gallup, read into the numbers, reason why Romney leads in Gallup is because Romney has a huge advantage in the south. Obama led in the other 4 regions

    October 24, 2012 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  6. Data Driven

    This is excellent news!! For Romney!!!

    October 24, 2012 06:10 pm at 6:10 pm |
  7. The REAL Truth...

    Funny how all the Repugs were on here the day after the 1st debate lauding the polls.. now, when they are behind and see he writing on the wall, the polls are all wrong, skewed, biased and inaccurate ?? Bwahahaha.. thanks for playing.

    October 24, 2012 06:11 pm at 6:11 pm |
  8. John

    It's amazing each party's faithful on these message boards blasts the polls that show their guy behind.

    October 24, 2012 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  9. Debby

    So how many voted already Cnn you didn't break it down. It could have been only 100 people which gave Obama that big edge.

    October 24, 2012 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  10. Laugh

    Oh, how cute, a Times Magazine Ohio Poll. D +9. In other words Obama can't get to fifty percent even when you give him more partisan advantage than he enjoyed in 2008.

    October 24, 2012 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  11. Independent Voter

    Prez is maintaining steady lead in OH and holds lead 2 to 1 on early voters. He will be re-elected, no doubts.

    October 24, 2012 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  12. Charlie

    Hey Romney lovers, read the article. It says Fox News had Obama ahead by 3 in Ohio after the second debate. More liberal bias? Dream on!

    October 24, 2012 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  13. john

    @ regguie...That's a Time Magazine poll....not CNN...you should learn to read things more slowly so your pea size brain has time to absorb it all.

    October 24, 2012 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  14. Denny

    Ohio Dems will go into the privacy of the voting booth and, voila, Romney will emerge the winner.

    October 24, 2012 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  15. Early Voter for Obama

    The republican are trying to steal this election.
    Obama going to win.

    October 24, 2012 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  16. Craig S

    A poll that over samples democrats at 9 when Obama only got 5 in 2008. And the enthusiasm of 2008 isn't going to be repeated with 24 million unemployed, a 16 trillion deficit and 45 million on food stamps.

    At 9 for democrats Obama isn't even cracking over 50.

    October 24, 2012 06:24 pm at 6:24 pm |
  17. Johnny

    I love lying to these pollsters and telling them I am voting for Obama.

    October 24, 2012 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  18. Veritas

    Reggiedw, prove it. And a Rassmusen poll doesn't count, because they are nothing more than the polling department of Fake News. President Obama is ahead in Ohio and will win it. The one mistake the article said was Obama's 49% and Romney's 44% were within the poll's 3 point margin of error. The last time I took math 49-44=5 meaning it is OUTSIDE the poll's 3 point margin of error.

    October 24, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  19. Lisa

    Obama will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada!! The election is over folks!!!

    October 24, 2012 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  20. USwatcher

    Romney is "completely wrong" for Ohio...Romney is "completely wrong" for America.

    October 24, 2012 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  21. Raimo Kangasniemi

    Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee, Willard Romney!

    October 24, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  22. tj

    Ohioans, you are doing good. please, please stay away from Romnesia because is contagious.for anyone having romnesia i recommend Obamacare

    October 24, 2012 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  23. Joane

    He said he is businessman, but doesn't know that the economie that was down for eight years will take eight years to recover. It's a shame.

    October 24, 2012 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  24. Wade

    TIME! WOW CNN can't you do better than that. Romney is now winning in OH by all the professional pollsters.

    October 24, 2012 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  25. Daniel

    This gets difficult for Romney if he looses OH. If he does he would need to take 2 of NH, NV, and WI. Which would be difficult that way things look today.

    October 24, 2012 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
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