October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Yonni

    Ohio people remembered "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt " the one who made a bet against American worker wanted to become American president, but Ohio is smart not now when Ohio is working and growing again

    October 24, 2012 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  2. Joane

    47% comment took a swing on Mitt, appolo... what? keep it .

    October 24, 2012 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  3. Mark

    Remember too that the polls are done via land line telephone calls, and more and more of those who are not senior citizens do not use land lines anymore, so these polls are skewed in favor of Romney nationwide to begin with. The GOP was right not to believe them earlier in the campaign, and they shouldn't now because Obama is farther ahead than they dare admit to the public. Forward!

    October 24, 2012 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  4. John

    Let Detroit go bankrupt. Michigan and Ohio have not forgotten Mitt. You will pay dearly in November.

    October 24, 2012 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  5. OBAMA2012

    It's amazing how people looks over the fact that the president came into office with a tough job. It was impossible for him to fix a problem when he's giving some tools to fix it and he's getting no help from the GOP! The GOP is not trying to fix this country they just want President Obama out of the office. It's real funny all these different type of polls are being taken and no one calls the minority because they know what the results will be!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    OBAMA/BIDEN2012

    October 24, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  6. J

    now we'll just have to see if Romney can steal the election with the electric voting machines his son Tagg invested in Ohio!

    October 24, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  7. Yes we can move Forward!

    Yes we can move Forward! Away from Bush-era policies.

    October 24, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  8. Sniffit

    This is simple, ladies. NEVER FORGIVE YOUR MEN FOR VOTING FOR MITTENS. NEVER. When Roe v. Wade gets overturned by the justices he gets to appoint if elected, when PP dies for lack of federal funding, when inidence rates for cervical and ovarian and breast cancer start to tick upwards, when women start getting sick or dying or losing the ability to reproduce from unsafe back-room abortion procedures, etc....YOU REMIND YOUR MEN WHAT THEY DID TO YOU AND NEVER LET THEM LIVE IT DOWN.

    October 24, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  9. Keep This In Mind

    It's a Time poll. Yeah, well, good luck with that.

    October 24, 2012 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  10. Oh ho

    @ Dj. If you do not believe this poll. Then do not believe the poll that says Romne is leading in Florida and NC. Get your head out of the sands . The facts are the facts Obama will win come Nov. 6. let me lay it out for you. Obama is leading in 9 out of 11 polls. I give Romney Florida. NC and heck even Virginia. He still cannot win. He needs Ohio to win and he is not leading there. In trade gives
    Obama a 55 percent chance of winning, bet fair gives him a 66, Nate Silver 385 gives him a 68. He is the favourite to win no doubt. Yeah sure you will say these polls are flawed. Then so is Gallup and every poll that has Romney leading.
    Come Nov 6 . It will be bye bye to Shifty con artists Romney / Ryan and their bogus plan. Even Creepy Ryan knows their chance at winning is quite slim, why else would he be campaigning for his seat.

    October 24, 2012 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  11. becky

    Good for Ohio, The people certainly have not benefitted from having the Speaker of the House as a member of their Congressional delegation. To those who are in the 47% or the 43% we all hope that the economy will start to move again. Right now it is slow and steady but we do need a surge. Perhaps all the CEO's who have been anonymous donors to the Romney pack will decide it is time to use their money to create job training programs and to get people back to work. They have the money and the means but they have chosen not to do so. Then we have those with golden parachutes who get their severance package and only come to the surface again if they become a CEO of another company. They have a racket going her.

    October 24, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  12. stop-the-whining

    Obama is in real need of Obamacare. Read the OP-Ed that Romney submitted on the auto bailout. Read the NY Times article on the weapons going into Syria that are arming the Islamist Jhihadists. Read the timeline for the event in Libya and now look at how the administration had emails within 2 hours of the start of the assault – see Reuters, CNN, ABC and others. Look for the speeches that Romney referred to when he stated Obama went on an "apology" tour.

    Our current economic and foreign policy is a shambles. We need leadership. We need Romney/Ryan!!

    October 24, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  13. Daniel

    This poll sampled 37% democrats, 28% Republicans, and 29% Independents. For a state that has voted the Republican into office 2 or last 3 elections and 5 of last 8 those sampling numbers seem kind of lopsided to me.

    October 24, 2012 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  14. Eric Lockhart

    It's pathetic how Republicans squeal "liberal-bias" like cry-baby pigs every time a poll reveals Mitt Romnesia is behind in a swing state, but they gloat with glee when the same pollster suggests that Romnesia is tied with President Obama. It's plain comical!

    October 24, 2012 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  15. ohreally

    LOL, Rasmussen is a real poll? They are so slanted. Nate Silver had to add four points to even out their bias.

    October 24, 2012 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  16. Mike in Texas

    To myviews,

    Most people do think about how there own lives are going. In Ohio, the auto industry was saved due to the Government involvement. At the time, there was no private capital available to do what Romney suggested. You vote based off your own self interest first. Isn't that why the Koch Brothers and others are threatening to let employees go if Obama wins? It isn't as if they are going to in the poorhouse if he does.

    Seriously dude.

    October 24, 2012 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  17. Ajdx3

    Romney +23 among Independents.

    October 24, 2012 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  18. CNNbeatsFOX

    In 2008 the Republican-leaning Rasmussen polls had McCain beating Obama in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia by the same margins that Romney is "beating" Obama right now. As you all know, Obama won ALL those states in 2008. The facts are that Robo-Polls like these oversample LANDLINES. Even the Time poll likely oversampled landlines. The race will be tight, because I suspect that Romney WILL win Florida and North Carolina, but you guys thinking Ohio is going red are doing some wishful thinking.

    October 24, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  19. Mike

    I support Obama 100% but he will lose Ohio because of voter machine rigging. Tagg has invested in that company.

    October 24, 2012 06:46 pm at 6:46 pm |
  20. JeffreyB

    I would love to know who exactly they are polling in Ohio. Spoke to a friend there yesterday who tells me that he knows of none of his friends voting for Obama and his street is lined with Romney signs.

    October 24, 2012 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  21. Steve- Illinois

    "That's what elections are for." Barack Obama

    This is going to be a fun one.

    October 24, 2012 06:52 pm at 6:52 pm |
  22. Sam

    This election is over people. Get back to work.

    Better luck next life Romney.

    October 24, 2012 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  23. Rick McDaniel

    Based on the fact CNN is reporting this.......we have to assume it is grossly overstated, and that Obama is doing no better, than even.

    After all, when a media is so obviously biased, and so obviously under the control of the Democrats, you can't believe much of what they say.

    October 24, 2012 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  24. Obama 2012-1016

    God will always take the foolish of men to confound the wise all the dirty tactics the right wing has done. Will not stop the will of God... Obama will Win again and move America Forward.

    October 24, 2012 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  25. Sam

    Obama is now in good shape to win the election. He needs Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. It's looking much better and the Senate is looking like it will remain Democratic.

    October 24, 2012 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
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