October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. mary_saff

    Obama will win Ohio, unless the news about Tagg Romeny owning the voting machines is true.

    October 24, 2012 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  2. Frank

    Let me ask everyone something. If Romney wins, would he be inheriting the country better or worse then what Obama inherited in 2008?

    Lets be sincere here, if Romney wins, He will be inheriting the country way better than what Obama inherited in 2008.

    Obama inherited the country losing 800,000 jobs a month in 2008.
    If Romney wins, he would be inheriting the country making over 100,000 jobs a month.

    Obama inherited the country with a steep downward slope of the economy.
    If Romney wins, He would be inheriting a country with a not fast but steady moving UPWARD slope for the economy for over 20 months.

    So, with that said, are we not better than 4 years ago? Do you think it is worth risking voting for a man that will put on completely different policies because the recovery is "too slow", that we have no Idea if its going to work, than keeping the President that has put a steady, not fast, but steady growth on the economy?

    Why try to fix what it is not broken? Since we KNOW FOR A FACT it has been going upwards slowly, but surely, why not give him a try for another 4 years so he can finish the job and move it up faster? He did not finish and probably won't finish because it doesnt take 8 years to fix this, specially when the GOP kept voting no on his bills to make sure Obama is a one term president? And that is not a myth, the GOP said it.
    I say do not touch what is not broken, and give Obama a shot since the slope IS moving upward, instead of steeply downward when Obama was elected. I say he can only make it better, since he proved that he did not make it worse.

    Vote for Barack Obama people. This is common sense. I am able to get funds for school because of him. I will be an engineer because he FOUGHT for me. I am better off than 4 years ago and so is my family and so is the country.

    October 24, 2012 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  3. Obama 2012-1016

    Not by might nor by power but by my Spirit say's the lord...America & Israel will be protected:-)Obama 2012-2016 Let'sGet To Work.....

    October 24, 2012 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  4. Micha

    @Phil .Time magazine is owned by Rupert Murdoch, a Republican. Definitely not a liberal mag. He also owns Fox News.

    October 24, 2012 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  5. Vijay

    Ohio for Obama 2012. It wont change much from now to nov 6. We had two October surprise, one from Mudroch and Donald trump.

    October 24, 2012 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  6. Wes

    Really CNN? This is the 1 poll you write about? The only poll showing Obama with a lead. You argued that Gallup should be tossed as an outlier because it didn't trend with the other pollsters yet Time is clearly not polling with the other pollsters and this garners a special headline?

    I'm still looking for the banner election central headline that used to link to all the polls when Obama was ahead by large percentages. Those links have mysteriously been pulled as well.

    October 24, 2012 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  7. Still Here 2012

    2012 Obama will win again and we will stand with Israel alway's

    October 24, 2012 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
  8. Steve Smith

    Are there actually fools touting Rasmussen Reports as being accurate? Rasmussen Reports is the most inaccurate and biased polling company in America. It is owned and run by Republicans and is constantly wrong. Obama is clearly ahead in Ohio as pretty much every single poll indicates.

    October 24, 2012 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  9. Anonymous

    Please people of Ohio, wake up !!

    October 24, 2012 07:06 pm at 7:06 pm |
  10. voluka

    How is that ïn the same CNN release "Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction" , and right below one reads that "Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction". What's wrong: the data or the method? I consider this as an insult to my intelligence!!!! Either one is undoubtdly winning there if polls are to be trusted!!!! Here, we have a saying: "It's impossible to blow and eat at the same time".

    October 24, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  11. Obama 2012-1016

    It's not in the polls but the Heart's of Real Men Obama 2012

    October 24, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  12. Dee G

    Obama *IS* ahead in OH – go take a look at real clear politics. They average out all the polls because you can't just cherry-pick the ones YOU like.

    October 24, 2012 07:07 pm at 7:07 pm |
  13. carly

    Anyone see anything wrong with this sentence????? "The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error." 44+3 does not equal 49. Must have been some math done by the Romney campaign.

    October 24, 2012 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  14. Jason Terry

    all i no is i voted for obama but i feel he didnt stand up too alot of promises if clinton was running id vote for bill or hillary but sorry im gonna have to vote romeny this time and hope clintons run 2016 im from michigan and lived in ohio too but im having more good feelings for romny and ryan ticket obama sorry but choices you made arent buying me these days

    October 24, 2012 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  15. Dionysus86

    Lol, wishful thinking? I'd argue that screaming "wishful thinking" to someone who has a scientific poll is, well, wishful thinking. You know, by definition.

    October 24, 2012 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  16. Steve S

    LOL....a poll is correct, only when the correct party (GOP) is ahead.

    October 24, 2012 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  17. Daaave

    Obama, now saying he stated it was a terrorist attack all along, needs to answer that IF he knew it was a terrorist attack, why did he then jump on Air Force 1 and fly to Vegas for a fundraiser. Was that fundraiser a greater priority than to be the Commander in Chief during a known terrorist attack on one of our embassy's?

    October 24, 2012 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  18. what

    cue rush of republicans cherry picking which polls to "believe" in

    October 24, 2012 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  19. Book'em dano

    One can disagree, but truth be told that most of these polls are the one's that overpoll the Democrats. Therefore, the polls are skewed. Prediction......Romney will win in Ohio. Wait and see.

    October 24, 2012 07:13 pm at 7:13 pm |
  20. TonyK

    Critical Thinking: Consider taking one of my classes in critical thinking and learn why you should ignore Rasmussen polls. They are not accurate because they use outdated sampling methods.

    October 24, 2012 07:13 pm at 7:13 pm |
  21. tavernvoice

    Remember people, the only pole that counts is the one that takes place on Nov. 6th. Everything else is merely an attempt to persuade or dissuade people into voting or believing their candidate will win. At this point, the only hope is that voters can spend the next few days doing their own homework. And not letting the media do it for them.

    October 24, 2012 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  22. A Kickin` Donkey

    Mr. President, when you win, remember WHY Ohio voted for you – - you took steps which saved/ created jobs in that state and YOU lowered their unemployment rate.

    From 2012 to 2016 you need to seize the advantage from the Republicans party on the debt & deficits [just as you did on military & foreign affairs]. Cut government spending [each Cabinent department gets 5% less than this year.

    Raise revenue and devote that new revenue to deficit reduction.

    End the wars and put the money into a 21st century electrical grid / electric car refueling network along the Pacific coast.

    October 24, 2012 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  23. Book'em dano

    If Ohio is going to Romney, which it will. Just think what states can do the same thing that swing Right .

    October 24, 2012 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  24. CaliforniaBC

    @Critical Thinking

    Perhaps it's be worth using some of the crticial thinking and realize that the "real" poll you refer to, Rasmussan, is aconservative leaning pollster

    October 24, 2012 07:22 pm at 7:22 pm |
  25. Ripcityhr

    Beware the untraceable electronic vote counts in Ohio and elsewhere where the Romney family has investments in Hart Intercivic, a company that will be counting the votes!

    October 24, 2012 07:24 pm at 7:24 pm |
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