October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Jim

    Bruce Springsteen should offer to put on a series of five free concerts across North Carolina if the state goes for Obama. That should energize young people to get out and vote.

    October 24, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
  2. Craig RB

    Romney is NOT going to win Ohio and he will never be President of out great country. We could not survive another republican administration. It takes too long to dig us out of the mess they create.

    October 24, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  3. anthonyryanphoto

    783 people called. 70 more Democrats, 50 more women. Not a fair poll, Romney has a 13% advantage among independents, and Ohio has an even split of registered Republicans and Democrats, and 17% independents. I predict an easy victory for the red team.

    October 24, 2012 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  4. vavoter

    Come one CNN stop being so biased and look at the poll and report on what it ACTUALLY says not want you WANT it to say. The numbers speak for themselves almost 2 to 1 dems vs repubs were polled. Seriously you can go to time and look at the data, you gonna tell me your staff is incapable of doing this. Give me a break

    October 24, 2012 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  5. ruth

    What I hear a lot among GM workers....hey it was nice of obama to bail out the auto industry ,but I do not OWE him my vote.....a lot of them do not like what he is doing to this country....so do not include ALL auto workers...and do not forget the Dephi workers Obama screwd in the auto bailout....they are an angry group of people that will not vote for Obama either...so do not count all the chickens yet!!

    October 24, 2012 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  6. ug

    More lies by the lib media...Romney is ahead of Obama...vote Romney.

    October 24, 2012 08:08 pm at 8:08 pm |
  7. Geek34

    rasmussen has them tied in Ohio....nice try CNN....

    October 24, 2012 08:08 pm at 8:08 pm |
  8. GaryB

    The sampling for the Time poll is actually skewed a little older and a little whiter than the 2008 voting population, so one would think if anything it leans just a bit right (although as many have pointed out, Obama supporters are less enthused than they were in 2008). Still, this is good news for Obama. Of course, any time when you're still below 50% this close to election day, you still have to worry,

    October 24, 2012 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  9. JW

    A justification for a closer gap:

    75% of all goods are bought by the lower 99% of earners

    If you "tax" the "99%" more, that means ALL companies lose LOTS of revenue. If they lose revenue they lose money. If they lose money, they lose the ability to hire more people. AND why exactly would they want to hire more people anyway? Arent they producing less goods because nobody is buying them?

    Get it? They have no need to hire if they are selling less stuff!

    I say this: LESS TAXES = LESS MONEY

    October 24, 2012 08:13 pm at 8:13 pm |
  10. Barry Coates

    What the heck is wrong with that state anyay. They obviously didn't get the memo. Bunch of gullible goobers taken in by Obama's ads in which he lies about creating 5.2 million jobs. The net gain was 325,000 when you factor in all who lost their jobs.

    October 24, 2012 08:18 pm at 8:18 pm |
  11. MichiganMan33

    Reasons I’m voting for Mitt Romney: (1) He understands the economy extremely well and will promote policies that allow the free market to prosper and create jobs; (2) Romney’s a capable and reasonable leader that will help end the political grid-lock in Washington; (3) Romney has a much better shot of balancing our budget and reducing our national debt than Obama does (Romney has already balanced budgets 4 times as governor, as leader of the Winter Olympics, and constantly throughout his years in the private sector); (4) Romney has a plan for the next four years and is running on his own ideas instead of trying to smear his opponent.

    October 24, 2012 08:19 pm at 8:19 pm |
  12. bencoates57

    What the heck is wrong with that state anyay. They obviously didn't get the memo. Bunch of gullible goobers taken in by Obama's ads in which he lies about creating 5.2 million jobs. The net gain was 325,000 when you factor in all who lost their jobs.

    October 24, 2012 08:19 pm at 8:19 pm |
  13. lex

    Funny, when the polls favor Romney the republicans use that as proof that he's winning. When Obama's ahead the polls must be wrong. It doesn't work that way.

    October 24, 2012 08:21 pm at 8:21 pm |
  14. JPX

    Republicans are in denial. It is clear that Obama will win this election.

    October 24, 2012 08:23 pm at 8:23 pm |
  15. Alfredo

    LOL... all of these people living on a prayer hoping Romney wins Ohio. He's never been ahead in the polls and lost whatever bounce he got and the lead is opening back up. Ohio is lost... It will be hilarious when everyone wakes up the next day after the election and Obama will still be president. I'm so enjoying this.

    October 24, 2012 08:24 pm at 8:24 pm |
  16. Travis

    Ohio is trending to Romney... Rasmussen has it tied at 48% apiece. Rasmussen has been the most accurate of all pollsters over the past few cycles. As far as I can tell this thing is over.

    October 24, 2012 08:25 pm at 8:25 pm |
  17. gb333

    I don't get your logic DJ.

    "Obama won OH by less than 3-4%." Meaning that Romney is in reality tied or ahead."

    Maybe you meant.

    Obama won OH by less than 3-4% so in reality the state is a toss up. And it could go either way.

    But most polls have pointed to Ohio leaning Obama.

    October 24, 2012 08:25 pm at 8:25 pm |
  18. Name w.bullock

    People are keep soft heart support vote for obama but I am not trust of presdient obama cause he was lots problems in past 4 year also I said no excuse to him if obama will wins that he will be fail next 4 year

    October 24, 2012 08:26 pm at 8:26 pm |
  19. ohioan

    Ohio will go for Obama in spite of republican efforts to disenfranchise urban voters, mostly black and college students. I don't understand how any true independent voter could vote republican after what the GOP has tried to pull off across the country, that is, limit as much as possible voters access to the polls. It's immoral and unamerican, and has nothing to do with voter fraud. Voting should be expanded everywhere, with every citizen able to vote without barriers.

    October 24, 2012 08:28 pm at 8:28 pm |
  20. Jeebus

    I like how all media is "liberal" unless it's Fox or the results support your cause. What a cop out.

    October 24, 2012 08:29 pm at 8:29 pm |
  21. bcrunner

    This is very funny! When Obama was ahead, the polls were fixed. When Romney was ahead, the polls were just right... Now that the President is ahead, the polls are wrong again... Go figure these Republicans....

    October 24, 2012 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
  22. rs1201

    I guess that poll was taken before the release of emails to the State Dept from Benghazi showing that Obama lied as well as his entire administration...
    All that lying will be shaving quite a number of points off of that difference...:)

    October 24, 2012 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
  23. bob

    Rasmussen has them tied and Gallup has Romney up by 1

    October 24, 2012 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  24. machine

    It will be nice to see the looks on Republicans face when they lose.America has spoken,congraulations on your second term.Get some air Republcans and stay away from Faux Nws.

    October 24, 2012 08:40 pm at 8:40 pm |
  25. Prairieson

    Right now, the federal government owns 500,000,000 shares of GM, or about 26% of the company. It would need to get about $53.00/share for these to break even on the bailout, but the stock closed at only $24/share on Wednesday. This left the government holding $12 billion worth of stock, and sitting on an unrealized loss of $14.5 billion.

    October 24, 2012 08:42 pm at 8:42 pm |
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