October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. toni

    wow, faithfulness and trust is an two way street. i trust nothing from romney . the world is changing. no matter how much we try to how on to the old days. things are changing.

    October 24, 2012 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  2. Wendy Herman

    Ohioans: Wake Up! SEE OBAMA'S AMERICA 2016....He is an IMPOSTER! Get him out now, before he becomes YOUR DICTATOR! How can you endorse Obama if Hugo Chavez, and Fidel Castro ENDORSE him? Where there's smoke there's FIRE! PLEASE SEE THE MOVIE BEFORE YOU VOTE! Obama is using the economy as a weapon of mass destruction, and it is happening before our very eyes! Romney/Ryan is THE LAST LIFEBOAT for America!
    AND CHECK YOUR VOTES BEFORE YOU HIT ENTER......

    October 24, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  3. khaleeshi

    If you value medicare, social security, healthcare, women's rights, and an even playing field for the middle class, vote for President Obama. Willard does not care about any of these things – only more tax breaks for the wealthy on the backs of the working class.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    October 24, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  4. mb

    Give Ohio credit...polls or no polls.....OBAMA had their back..they will have his!!!

    October 24, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  5. Melo-D

    These polls nned to stop! JUst say the race is close and leave it there. Touting polls you like and dismissing polls you don't is something a child does. I can't freakin wait till the election is over so people will stop whining about these dumb polls. The only poll that counts is the one on election night.

    October 24, 2012 08:54 pm at 8:54 pm |
  6. lolz

    just because a magazine prints facts doesn't make it liberal lol

    October 24, 2012 08:55 pm at 8:55 pm |
  7. Steven

    I am an Ohioan and already cast my vote for guess who? Obama2012! Yes right. Obama will win Ohio and defeat this greatest flip flopper making has ever known in America's political history. Someone who will do and say anything to get elected. Someone who agrees with the President on his foreign policy; but would not offer anything different.

    October 24, 2012 08:57 pm at 8:57 pm |
  8. No PartyLov

    Hey I am a independent who lives in Ohio as a matter of fact I live right outside of columbus and I am a small business owner. Stop arguing over what poll fits your argument the truth is here in Ohio like it or not Obama has true lead has never dropped below 5% points. The economy here is doing good and most of it is because of the Auto bailout and the Solar and green energy startup companies. If you go online and search for good professional jobs you will see a lot of positions open in Ohio. The problem is people here are not trained to fill them. Ohio jumped on the green energy grant that Obama put out there for states two years ago and they are doing good. So trust this CNN poll I can tell you it is right. The first week of early voting the voting places had lines like it was election day, the news here have been reporting almost 3 to 1 early voting for Obama. As a matter of fact the rumer here is almost half the state has already voted. The car bailout will be the reason Ohio put Obama back in the white house.

    October 24, 2012 09:00 pm at 9:00 pm |
  9. Fat ninja

    As a resident of Greene County, Ohio I can tell you that Ohioans undoubtably want the rest of the country to succeed. We however also realize that the country IS heading in the right direction, and now is not the time to vote for a man with a pipe dream of 12 million jobs from somewhere and 7 trillion dollars in spending with no revenue for the govt. Recovery is happening now, dont be fooled into thinking we arent better off now than we were. The country is growing, the investors sit on their money as they have since the Bush tax cuts, and the only way to ensure growth and infrastructure upgrades is for them to pay their fair share and go on ahead and hire people to earn their tax credits. On Neuhardt, on Brown, on Obama! Forward to the future!!

    October 24, 2012 09:04 pm at 9:04 pm |
  10. Pete

    Republicans with their voter supression ,fraud to at least keep it close.But in one state when the early vote was more than tripled the republicans said it was still close,remember nitwits the president needs roughly only 40 electoral votes to win..Romney getting five here,four there just ain't gonna cut it,just like his policies,they just don't add up!!

    October 24, 2012 09:05 pm at 9:05 pm |
  11. Ancient Texan

    The far left liberal rag is showing Obama ahead in their poll? No kidding? Who would have "thunk it?"

    October 24, 2012 09:06 pm at 9:06 pm |
  12. cyclonus11

    Rasmussen is a REAL polling organization? Hahahaha. They're the worst of the bunch. Try an aggregate, like 538.

    October 24, 2012 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  13. Wade

    Gee go on DEM be delusional. The real polls show a tie or Romney now winning.

    October 24, 2012 09:10 pm at 9:10 pm |
  14. MormonsRule

    This is what happens when you mess with the rich. We got rich because we know how to win. Was there really any doubt that we would push Romney to the top. Wake up and smell the inevitability.

    October 24, 2012 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  15. me

    Why should the Armpit of America get to decide the President?

    October 24, 2012 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  16. Romney cares less

    Go OHIO!
    Forward with Obama not back to the 1950's!

    October 24, 2012 09:14 pm at 9:14 pm |
  17. ThinkAgain: All of the GOP's policies are PROVEN FAILURES

    C'mon, Ohio, and bring this home for President Obama and the only sane choice forward!

    October 24, 2012 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
  18. Kathy Mills

    Ohio owes Obama for their jobs. Will they forget? Sure hope not!!!!! OBAMA 2012

    October 24, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  19. ThinkAgain: All of the GOP's policies are PROVEN FAILURES

    @myviewis: "I guess we can determine that Ohioans don't care about the unemployment in the rest of the country."

    No, it means that Ohio know Mittens would have let the American auto industry go under and believe in President Obama's ability to continue the 31 straight months of private sector job growth that is happening all over the country.

    Obama/Biden 2012 = The only sane choice

    October 24, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  20. ThinkAgain: All of the GOP's policies are PROVEN FAILURES

    @Abby!: "Why does Tagg have investments in polling machines? Conflict of interest anyone?"

    The Repubs are going to try to steal this election. Dems, Independents and thinking Republicans need to get out and vote for President Obama and a straight Democratic ticket – AND tell exit pollers they did so to put a lie to what the Repubs are trying to pull!

    Obama/Biden 2012 = The only sane choice

    October 24, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  21. ThinkAgain: All of the GOP's policies are PROVEN FAILURES

    @Critical Thinking: Rasmussen is a right-wing pollster; can't believe anything they report.

    October 24, 2012 09:24 pm at 9:24 pm |
  22. WISESAY

    America chose Obama before because they needed him to lead them iout of difficult situation.and they will keep him for another four years they need. I am not worried about it.

    October 24, 2012 09:31 pm at 9:31 pm |
  23. Francis P

    Keep voting PRO-ROMNEY – Election is not over yet – Keep knocking on doors and get them to vote for ROMNEY.
    CNN and the like are pundits with an agenda of BIAS and corrupting people to push their views.

    October 24, 2012 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  24. WISESAY

    America chose Obama before because they needed him to lead them out of difficult situation and they will keep him for another four years if they need him. I am not worried about it.

    October 24, 2012 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  25. JDL

    So, who are the other 10% of early voters supporting? We can add and 30 + 60 does not equal 100. Why can't you all admit that Gary Johnson and other 3rd party candidates exist?

    October 24, 2012 09:39 pm at 9:39 pm |
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