October 24th, 2012
05:24 PM ET
6 years ago

Poll shows five-point edge for Obama in Ohio

(CNN) – A survey taken in the critical battleground of Ohio shows the race remains tight, with President Barack Obama holding a five point edge over rival Mitt Romney two weeks ahead of Election Day.

The Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Obama at 49% and Romney at 44% in the state, within the poll's three point sampling error. The number was derived from a survey of people who said they would vote November 6, and people who said they've already cast their ballot.

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The poll was taken October 22-23, meaning there was one night of polling after the final presidential debate on Monday.

Time's poll showed Obama and Romney both at 45% among respondents who said they would vote on Election Day, and Obama leading Romney 60%-30% among people who said they've cast early ballots. Early voting in Ohio began October 2.

Most observers, both Republicans and Democrats, expect Obama to win among early voters in Ohio, as he did in 2008. But Republicans say their improved voter turnout effort will put them ahead of where they stood four years ago on Election Day, pointing to early voting results showing outsized proportions of Republicans casting early ballots in some of the state's largest counties.

The Republican effort, however, isn't necessarily reflected in Ohio voters' perception of the race. Asked in Wednesday's poll who they thought would win the presidential election, 52% named Obama and 36% said Romney.

Among independents who said they would vote on Election Day, Romney led Obama 55%-32%. Independents who said they already voted went for Obama, 55%-29%.

A Fox News survey conducted after the second presidential debate on October 16 showed Obama edging Romney by three points, 46%-43%.

Other statistics included in the Time poll showed Obama leading among women in Ohio, 56%-37%, while Romney led among men 51%-42%.

The battle for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has been fiercely fought in recent days – Romney stumps in Cincinnati on Wednesday, while Obama makes a stop in Cleveland Thursday. Both vice presidential candidates have also been campaigning in the state this week.

In his criticism of Romney, Obama often points out the GOP nominee's opposition to the bailout of American auto companies, who employ a large number of Ohio residents. In the Time poll, there was a gap between the direction Ohioans saw the country moving, and the direction they saw their state headed.

Fifty-four percent of the respondents said the country was on the wrong track, compared to only 41% who said it was headed in the right direction. The figures for the state of Ohio itself were reversed: 51% said the state was going on the right track, while 43% said the opposite.

Whether credit for Ohio's improved economy goes to Obama, or to the state's Republican Gov. John Kasich, remains a contentious political point, though Wednesday's poll indicates Ohioans are aware their state is better off than the country as a whole. Ohio's unemployment rate is 7%, lower than the 7.8% nationwide rate.

The Time poll was conducted by telephone October 22-23 from 783 likely Ohio voters (or those who had already voted). The sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN's Peter Hamby contributed to this report.

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (291 Responses)
  1. Mike M

    CNN is no better than MSNBC, they only mention the polls that show the widest margin of victory for Obama. Not the 5 other polls in Ohio that show it nearly tied:

    10/23/12 Poll – Rasmussen Reports: 48 Obama 48 Romney – Tie
    10/21/12 Poll – SurveyUSA: 47 Obama 44 Romney – +3 Obama
    10/21/12 Poll – Suffolk: 48 Obama 48 Romney – Tie
    10/20/12 Poll – PPP: 49 Obama 48 Romney – +1 Obama
    10/19/12 Poll – Gravis Marketing: 47 Romney 47 Obama – Tie

    October 24, 2012 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |
  2. Airbornevet

    Thank god not all of Ohio is full of red necks, like the vast majority of NC and a big part of FL. Those states will take a few more decades to evolve. Just compare how much they have moved to the liberal side from conservative from just 50 years ago i.e. Civil Rights era. Imagine a few more decades... There are always the slow ones in the group. Too bad it prob won't happen in any of our life times, because they are that slow and lazy, but keep in mind whether they like it or not, they are evolving to the left.

    October 24, 2012 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |
  3. fikru

    I vote Mr Obama he doing good job if u vote Romney believe me he's going to be war we don't need war no more that's whay I vote the pr!!!

    October 24, 2012 10:40 pm at 10:40 pm |
  4. Doctor

    D +9 oversample to counter Romney's 15% lead amongst Inependents... Obama may be winning by a point or so, but this poll is a joke.

    October 24, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  5. Ed

    I served in the military for over 20 years and continue to serve this great country in some other capacity in support of our brave men and women. There is a lot to worry if Republicans win, this party is tainted with a bunch of sick and emotional unstable politicians...this is not the Republican party I knew from 20 years ago where career politicians had real backbones and had to courage to go across the isle to really tackle the issues of the people they represented. I am a Democrat but I have never voted along party lines, I voted for some Republicans in the past but not anymore...this party already has two members aspiring to the Senate that....one thinks rape is legal and the other thinks a child born from incest or rape is God's will. You folks really need to think about what this means to women....it means a President Romney can appoint justices that will make abortion illegal....don't take my word...put him in office and it will be a done deal. Is Obama perfect? Absolutely not!.....but America should be a bit more patient....if you were able to handle 8 years of Bush's reckless policies...than you can give this guy another four to finish fixing what the guy before him screw up!

    October 24, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  6. Patriots

    Critical Thinking and Reggie – According to Rasmussen, the poll average for today's Ohio poll is based on 2 days before the 3rd debate and one day after. So according their website, the polls is based on 2/3 average taken before the debate. Again all these things are explained on Rasmussen site. Please look it up. Regardless, we will only know the real change in the polls end of this week.

    October 24, 2012 10:45 pm at 10:45 pm |
  7. geekfuriouscom

    I realize that lots of right wingers don't want to deal with reality but... if you take all the polls in Ohio over the past two weeks, not a single one shows Romney winning. Several show Obama ahead by 3 to 5 points (within the margin of error). More importantly, the fact the daily poll after daily poll consistently shows Obama ahead paints a statistical picture where Romney cannot possibly win Ohio.

    And without Ohio, he cannot win the election.

    October 24, 2012 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm |
  8. geekfuriouscom

    The fallacy of logic that many right wingers suffer from won't let them use their critical thinking skills to accept reality. If dozens upon dozens of polls show the same thing, the margin of error is essentially zero. Now, if some polls show Obama losing Ohio, then it would be possible that Romney was actually on the positive end of the margin of error. But EVERY SINGLE POLL shows him trailing. These polls aren't of the same people. That's statistical certainty.

    Obama will win Ohio. Obama will be re-elected again.

    October 24, 2012 10:52 pm at 10:52 pm |
  9. Thomas

    If Mitt is to win this election, he is going to have to do it without Ohio.

    October 24, 2012 10:54 pm at 10:54 pm |
  10. guzat

    Romney is done.Who can put a person who has no clue about the outside world? When we start living in Jupitor we will vote for Romney.

    October 24, 2012 11:00 pm at 11:00 pm |
  11. Wade

    Well we know that poll is a lie since all the rest show Romney tide and some show him winning!

    October 24, 2012 11:00 pm at 11:00 pm |
  12. Josh

    This poll is rigged. Romney is leading in Ohio. It has D 9+ in samples.

    October 24, 2012 11:14 pm at 11:14 pm |
  13. vanessa lane

    President Obama will win Ohio and the election. The republicans agenda is not in the best interest of this country but trying to vote against everything our President is trying to implement. Where was the public out cry when George W Bush ran the country into the ground. GOD bless our President --term #2!!!!!!!

    October 24, 2012 11:14 pm at 11:14 pm |
  14. MikeB

    Oh, how we forget the tyrants lullaby.

    October 24, 2012 11:17 pm at 11:17 pm |
  15. Tom

    Ohio can see Romney trying to look like a democrat just to elected, but they will remember who he was in the Republician primary and who Baine capitol is. Romney can try and say he would have saved the car industry like the president,but I didn't see to any republicans around let alone him. The guy is a used car salesman telling you what you want to hear from this weeks survey. Come on Ohio put Obama back in the White House.

    October 24, 2012 11:18 pm at 11:18 pm |
  16. 2Stevetundra

    If the biased Rasmussen poll gives obama a tie then he is leading ohio by a large margin!!!

    October 24, 2012 11:19 pm at 11:19 pm |
  17. reply

    Democates hate voter ID's since with ID's you can't vote early and offen.

    October 24, 2012 11:19 pm at 11:19 pm |
  18. Matk

    Hilarious, Romney actually leads in Ohio. The dems are going to shocked.in two weeks!

    October 24, 2012 11:25 pm at 11:25 pm |
  19. duh

    I am watching most of these polls and I will be sure to note which is the most acurate, not only on election night, but also the weeks leading up to the election, too. The polls that prove to be crap, I will never follow again.

    October 24, 2012 11:32 pm at 11:32 pm |
  20. dnokc

    Don't underestimate Ohio...The "Hope & Change" they were sold in '08 is NOT the change they were hoping for. They were fooled once...they will NOT be fooled again!

    October 24, 2012 11:36 pm at 11:36 pm |
  21. mochica

    As an Ohioan I voted for Obama on the first day of early voting. Mitt doesn't represent me or my family, and he wouldn't be able to lead the Tea Party congress if elected president. He was successful in Massachusetts (sort of) with over 80% Democratic legislature. Unfortunately our Congress is not the same as the state of Massachusetts.

    October 24, 2012 11:38 pm at 11:38 pm |
  22. Max


    Well, isn't it a given that at least 47% of Ohions will vote for Obama (according to Romney)? Wasn't he the one who said that 47% are dependent on Government and don't care to help themselves. In a sense he already asked that 47& NOT to vote for him since he doesn't care about them. How does he expect to win an election in which he already rejected 47% of the voters...I guess Romney is RUNNING SCARED on realizing whta's really happening..this will continue to be so throughout the country.

    47% of Americans will take Romney's disparaging comment directly to the voting booth...and they should!

    October 24, 2012 11:39 pm at 11:39 pm |
  23. Droppo

    Some of the polls conservatives keep quoting are polls only taken on land lines. Believe it or not, that totally skews the results in favor of Romney. Younger voters are less likely to vote for Romney and they are more likely to NOT be using a land line. So the polls that show them exactly even are probably off by a few points and the polls that show Obama slightly leading... well you probably wouldn't enjoy thinking about what that really means.

    October 24, 2012 11:41 pm at 11:41 pm |
  24. Vlad/Bklyn, NY

    I wish everyone a good election day. Whoever wins, we should be always able to look into each other eyes the next day and make our democracy better for ourselves and for our kids.

    My personal wish is that we change our antique election laws in the near future, so the value of each vote is the same, no matter whether you live in Ohio or Texas or New York.

    October 24, 2012 11:43 pm at 11:43 pm |
  25. Droppo

    When you cite a poll, make sure you find out first if they are only calling on people's land line phones. If they are, you might as well subtract about 4 points from Romney's results and add them to Obama's ledger. Younger voters aren't likely to be answering a land line and they really aren't as likely to vote Romney either, so they are being excluded from those polls.

    October 24, 2012 11:43 pm at 11:43 pm |
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