October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

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Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. Mitt Romney

    Let the auto industry die.

    October 26, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  2. timmmaahhyy

    there was an article on here a while ago about the other candidates but it disappeared after about 10 minutes.

    October 26, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  3. blackbart

    Alaskans for Pres. Obama!

    October 26, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  4. judith

    Obama wins Ohio, and wins the election. God save us from Mitt Romney and Corporate rule.

    October 26, 2012 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  5. mike58

    I wonder how Obama's daughters feel about his new ad.
    Did he tell them to do it a nice guy the first time

    October 26, 2012 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  6. JJ

    Everytime CNN/ORC does a poll, it seems it's wasy oversampled Dems, thus not sure how reliable this is. Both Rasmussen and Suflolk have Ohio tied at 48-48...............btw, I find it interesting CNN never lists the Gallup or Rasmussen national polls in their headlines, as those are 51-46 and 50-47 Romney respectively. Of course, those aren't as new worthy as "binders of women" or Mourdock from Indiana.

    October 26, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  7. Bob

    Ohio: We're the poisonous nut state...

    October 26, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  8. Critical Thinking

    Nice try CNN but here are results from a real unbias polling organization.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

    BTW, the undecides usually turn toward the challenger, so try and get your facts straight next time, shall we.

    October 26, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  9. trinimum

    hope you don't mind but let's look at Nov.'s pool numbers

    October 26, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  10. bucksnorts rush (in Ohio)

    no, this is a bold faced lie, as most of obamas campaign surrogates releases are... I live in northern ohio, which is the liberal 1/3 of ohio, and this section of the state has tossed oboma like yesterdays garbage.. of course it's cnn.. not the most liberal, but is the most incompetent liberal media outlet... take a lesson from msnbc guys, they're eating your lunch..

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  11. Veritas Lavinga

    Veritas Lavinga Poll: Obama down by 16 points in Ohio.

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  12. NoFortunateSon

    No poll in months has shown Mitt Romney ahead in Ohio, or even tied. If he can't win Ohio, he pretty much can't win the Presidency. I am beginning to think the online betting markets are on to something here.

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  13. Flyboy7588

    Rassy has it dead even in OH. 48-48. Nice try CNN. Romney will win OH. Count on it.

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  14. LOL

    You guys are so desperate. This "news" site is such a joke. Maybe take a queue from the hundreds of people telling you this and stop stumping for a certain party. RIP CNN, you're -done-

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  15. Early Voter for Obama

    People are comeing out strong for Obama in early voteing...I spoke with several people for early voteing they said waited for 3 hours to vote for Obama. My family member said majority people was in line voteing for Obama.
    People are saying they just dont trust Romney.

    October 26, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  16. Namejkane sfl a vote for lady parts romney the tax cheat and lyin lady parts ryan willcut your moms medicare and soc sec . .can you afford to pay for them???

    Don't reward the gop and lyin Ryan for holding the economic hostage for the last four years ,kick the gop to the curb for good!!!!

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  17. Al

    Ohio going for Obama.

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  18. UBS, WILLARD & THE 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    Look! The polls aren't changing in RobMe's favor in Ohio. Get over it CNN. You're better off polling in Virginia where the race is actually tight.

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  19. Glen

    Be Careful How You Vote in the 2012 Election

    The economy tanked in 2002 thanks to the Bush team economics. Surplus was gone. economic expansion was gone. Unemployment went through the roof. Deficits soared. Everybody blamed the "Clinton tech bubble" and 911. Then for a few years things seemed to look better but never really took off. A massive housing bubble fueling borrowing raised consumer demand. It was all an illusion built on debt not on prosperity or work. Finally by the end of 2007 it all came crashing down. Record unemployment. Record deficits. Record housing losses and foreclosures. Remember Lehman Bros? Do people really have memories that short? It was a total disaster on every level. Debt. Employment. Housing. Small business suffered because of the credit crunch.
    Now we are having another election and people are seriously considering putting a republican back in the White house? Things have been slowly improving. The forecast in 2008 was for between 15% to 25% unemployment. It peaked a ten percent and is back to 8%. That is alot better than the 700,000 jobs amonth being lost at the end of the Bush years. The Dow was 3600 when Clinton took office and 11,700 when he left. Over a 300% increase. The Dow was 11,700 when Bush took office and 7,500 when he left. A 40% decrease. Thats why all the seniors had to go back to work. Their retirement accounts were wrecked. Even in my job many oldtimers delayed retirement because of what happened to the markets under Bush. No jobs and nobody able to retire.
    Electing another Republican president would probably permanently damage the U.S. beyond repair. We are still digging out of the hole Bush/Cheney dug and will be for many years to come. This is no time to go back to destructive policies.

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  20. Howie

    Hoping the Buckeye state votes for honesty integrity and intelligence going with R/R

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  21. josh rogen

    so what you're saying is it's within the margin of error so either Obama's ahead, it's tied, or Romney might be ahead?

    October 26, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  22. Patriots

    Waiting for silly conservatives to start dismissing this poll. 3, 2, 1... Great work Ohio. America owes you a big one.

    October 26, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  23. Steve

    Uhmmm. This is completely oposite of what other polls are indicating with Romney having a 7 point lead over Obama nationwide

    October 26, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  24. Sniffit

    "Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error."

    Followed by

    "The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

    Apparently, CNN failed arithmetic too. Hint: 4.0 > 3.5

    October 26, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  25. JJ

    Would love to leave a comment but I can't always stomach what you'd require me to say.

    October 26, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
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