October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

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Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. BB62

    Hey Mr. President, When will you be honest with the American people and the families of the dead about what happened in Benghazi? It took less time to investigate 9/11 than this is taking! So much for transparency. Signed, America

    October 26, 2012 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  2. ABarker

    When a nonpartisan poll like Gallup shows him winning Ohio , then I'll believe it.

    October 26, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  3. Thatguy371

    "Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men."

    Which proves, as expected, that women are smarter than us guys. Sad though, that old people aren't smart enough to see through the Romney b.s. But then, old people are more likely to be racist than young people, so there you have it.

    October 26, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  4. Sergio

    Romney will be behind Obama in Ohio until November 07. Obama is going to win the college electoral. I do not think so there will be a magic change in this race. Romney is too late to catch up on Obama. People have already made up their mind.

    October 26, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  5. Linda

    And no Obama need not be worried about impeachment. Didn't you hear Gop Ms. C. Rice. or do you just choose to hear what you wanted to hear? Get real!

    October 26, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  6. daveinboca

    Notice that the CNN clowns don't have a pdf. with all the details of the poll? That's because like the NBC & CBS polls, they are oversampling Democrats by 10%.

    October 26, 2012 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  7. MashaSobaka

    For God's sake, Democrats – GET OUT AND VOTE. We CANNOT afford to lose this election!

    October 26, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  8. Obamawinsusawins

    Why is Romney getting stomped in his home state? Why would he tell the people of Defiance, Ohio that Jeep is moving production of vehicles to China and then Chrysler come today out and clarify that it isn't...Romney is not only toast but burnt toast!!!

    GO OBAMA!!!!!

    October 26, 2012 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  9. gt

    turn out the lights ..obama is toast...

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  10. mark

    peace and stability restored, now we can get on to kicking the damm republicans out of the congress and getting some real work done!!

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  11. Superrich

    Ohio is packed with working class 47% victims. They don't do jack a** for the country. Outsource them all. Yet they will vote for Romney simply because empty rhetorics are easier to believe and their poor education won't allow them to understand anything deeper. Next president is bound to be Romney at this rate.

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  12. Ed Morris

    hah, funny, another D+9 poll. Democrats deluding themselves again. keep dreaming...

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  13. Dan

    I can't fathom how people think that taxing businesses is going to help the economy. As someone looking for a job, I really, really hope Romney wins. Business is about speculating for the future. When businesses are confident, they'll invest. When they're not, they'll hang on to their money. Businesses are sitting on a record amount of cash right now, because they're worried that they'll get taxed if they spend it. If Obama wins, they're not going to spend their money, they're not going to hire people, because of increased taxes. It blows my mind that people think that only the rich people are Republicans. It's not just rich people, it's people that understand economics.

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  14. ObjectiveGuy

    I can certainly understand why people find Obama likable and personable, both fine attributes. But what I can't understand is how voters seem to value these traits over competency and ability to do this most important of jobs. Mitt Romney is certainly not a animated as Obama, but then again, we are not voting for American Idol–we are voting for president of the US. Looking at Obama's track record, he is clearly in way over his head, and understandably so. He served three months as a senator before he decided he was ready to run for the presidency, and at that point, spent most of his time and effort campaigning. Prior to that, his experience was in academia (not the real world) or as a community activist (still not exactly sure what that is). As president, he has NOT gotten the economy moving at all, with no signs of life on the horizon. Unemployment has been at record high sustained levels, with no end in sight. The federal debt has increased by an unsustainable $6 trillion (that's a LOT of zeroes). In short, an administration of abject failure on many levels. On the other hand, Romney has a long record of public service, and has proven himself very capable of managing large organizations (corporations, states, the Olympics, etc.), with balanced budgets. He understands economics and finance extremely well, and knows how to get our economy moving again, and how to reform taxes. Why WOULDN'T a rational voter give Romney a shot at the presidency, considering our current president has offered no new direction other than more of the same of what we have lived through for the past 4 years, which has NOT been good at all! If you're not at least giving Romney strong consideration, then you are blind to reality, which is not fair to yourself, or to your fellow citizens.

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  15. Samuel Adams

    After careful consideration of the two candidates I believe that Mitt Romney has a plan for our country and is presenting this to the american people. I do not see he same from Obama. It seems to me that he is more interested in attacking Romney's character and making much ado about nothing. I'm more concerned about how he will fix this disgrace of an economy, and the broken promises that he has not kept. My friend is a Latino, and he is greatly upset that Obama didn't doing anyting for his family's immigration status the first 2 years he was in office when he had a democratic house and senate. Instead a healthcare bill was passed that left over several million illegal immigrants without hope. Now he is using his own race, and the latinos as playing cards in his deck. I seriously question his scruples. As an independent and friend of the latino community I have decided to put my trust in Romney for president. good luck america.

    October 26, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  16. Planet Kolob

    Will the GOP go back to claiming all the polls are biased for Obama now that they show him back on top again by a larger margin?

    October 26, 2012 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  17. Your twisted sick

    Look at all the homegrown terrorists here in the States.....Tieing a rope around the feet, stripping those terrorism victims and dragging them down the campaign trail.....You people are sick...Giving comfort and aid to the ones that pulled the trigger...I hope you all rot in @#!#!@

    October 26, 2012 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  18. Rod

    Voters for America Pledge:

    No matter who wins the presidency, who will pledge to force their representatives and senators to work with the president? Cooperation is what is needed, not this bitter crap that's been taking place.

    October 26, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  19. kevin triplett

    has anybody thought about this. what if they both tie in the how election and it goes to the house and since the house is controlled by the GOP; romney wins

    October 26, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  20. Linda

    Right on Phil Thomas

    October 26, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  21. Penny Wright

    Say goodbye, Mitt.

    October 26, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  22. TexasRugger

    I do not see the breakdown of the sample used. Was this another D+9?

    October 26, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  23. Ed Morris

    Planet Kolab = Paid TROLL

    October 26, 2012 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  24. Carol

    CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

    October 26, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  25. Chad

    talk about lying and bengzhai and this and that... how about we talk about going to iraq for no reason except to look over the oil fields killing 4000 americans.. how about we talk about this.....

    October 26, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
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