October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

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Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. elaine1

    Integrity should be the final decision on which one to vote for.. How can anyone vote for a man that changes his campaign platform every other day and just lie..directly into your face ...today..its CHANGE...Don't Romneys base realize, he think they are stupid, not paying attention and cannot count..he only want the trophy of presidency and will be the same status quo if he wins. Repubs or Demos, please wake up..are you listening and studying these guys to see who has true honesty, heart and Integrity for the ground root of America and its people??? This is a no brainer regardless of what party you belong to....unless the motive for voting for Romney is some other reason than President Obama's hardwork, truthfulness,heart and sacrifice..

    October 26, 2012 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  2. Rob

    Obama is a criminal.

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  3. FatOldBaldGuy

    Romney, the guy who did one term in Massachusetts. He couldn’t have gotten re-elected if he wanted to, because the people were on to him and he would have lose in a landslide. This is a guy who couldn’t get the Salt Lake Tribune; the paper for Mormons, to support him, they want Obama. The lead newspapers in Massachusetts are supporting Obama too. Romney continues to flip on very major issue in the last seven years. He was for Gay rights, now he is against them. His Pro-Choice, he was never pro-choice. The government doesn’t create jobs. The navy is too small, we need more ships, but he wants to invest $2T in ships the navy doesn’t want. The list goes on.

    It took the last Republicans eight years to drive this economy into the hole and Romney is talking about the fact that it will take him eight more years to get us out of that hole.

    Frankly, I want to see this President finish another four years and let’s see what he can do before we judge him.

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  4. winchester74

    When Mitt Romney visited Billy Graham – did he kiss Billy's ring or his butt ???

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  5. Chad

    looks like some americans want to go back to the bush days... robme is selling his flip flopping lies with monayyyyy

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  6. JL

    What a disgrace CNN and all other news outlets not covering Libya. What Fox is reporting should be covered by every major outlet. Keep running out these bogus polls, it won't save the most pathetic commander in Chief of our time

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  7. anthony

    STRAIGHT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE – CNN reports Obama leading Romney in OHIO 50-46
    But it refuses to report Crime committed by the White House in regards to Libya.
    There you go.
    CNN – circling the drain with the rest of the Liberal Trash.

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  8. Chuck Hendrix

    @BB62 You simple minded sock puppet. It took over 5 years for Bush to release the emails about the original 9/11 incident.

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  9. Sam

    Vote for Romney is like voting for Cheney.
    Neocons want to screw America once again.

    October 26, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  10. obama4eva

    Cheers OBAMA, Looking forward to for your inauguration in January. Your the best. All my buddies and more voted for me. After your two terms history books will remember you as the GOAT – greatest of all time. God bless!

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  11. i'm confused

    Today's republican party is a cult full of ideological & religious extremists that HAVE NO PLACE IN THE 21st CENTURY!!!!!!!

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  12. NoKidding

    Romney's Bain Capital shutting down Sensata plant and sending 170 jobs to China as we speak.
    Check out Sensata Technologies news.
    DO NOT VOTE FOR LIAR ROMNEY!!!

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  13. ObjectiveGuy

    CNN certainly does like to put a spotlight on any perceived Obama advantage, and downplay any perceived Romney advantage, I've noticed. What ever happened to fair and unbiased media?

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  14. MikeyB

    All this talk about Ohio, but I think Obama has bigger problems. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, heck, even Minnesota appear to be in play; and FL, VA, and NC are out of the Dem column.

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  15. Jeff

    CNN your a joke and so are your polls, Your owned by Ted Turner and hes a big donor of obama and you do and say what he wants. YOU ARE A JOKE that is why your ratings are the losest of all cable news networks.

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  16. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    Voters of Ohio aren't the same voters in years past who just voted for party and Ohio represents the awakening of a new era; they don't care about party or ethnic background, they care about who cares about them and that leads them to the polls to vote Obama. So the sooner others get that through their thick skulls they too will vote Obama. FORWARD.

    October 26, 2012 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  17. Dina

    Romney may have more money but Obama acts like he has more. He spends more on everything, but of course that's our money isn't it. His wife wears dresses that are more expensive than Anne's, which is supposed to be the rich person. It's sickening that people are believing Obama's lies. You people are not reading the facts. This election is just too important to just vote for the person that can BS more. Who cares if he laughs or walks like a cool teenager, we need a leader not a boy. We need someone that stops using our money for nothing. All those empty promises and you just don't care. Romney is the only one at this point that can get us out of this mess. Obama may have been born in America, brought up her e for the first few years of his life but he went to Indonesia and was taught to hate colonization. That's us people. He was taught that the U.S. and England bacame rich and made other countries poor. Do you see what's going on here? WAKE UP!! He does not think America is special. He is a true Muslum sympathizer.

    October 26, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  18. hal

    Why isn't CNN reporting about Harry Reid car crash?

    October 26, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  19. JB

    I comes down to this for me – I am not 100% happy with Obama, ..... but I have no confidence at all that Romney or his policies will benefit anyone but the super rich – explain why again his capital gains taxed should be reduced? Why not reduce my tax on my 60hr week instead of his "investments". No thanks

    October 26, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  20. Planet Kolob

    GOP Logic:

    When Rasmussen shows Romney winning: "Rasmussen I trust, Gallup stinks."
    When Gallup shows Romney winning: "Gallup I trust, Rasmussen stinks"

    Hmmmm...

    October 26, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  21. kevin

    Yeah! Obama has won the election! See! CNN said so! Now, there is no need for you Democrats to stop whatever it is that you do and go out and vote! Stay home come November 6th....the election is over.

    October 26, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  22. bencoates57

    Ohio is resisting the trend overtaking the rest of the nation, where Romney is dominant among independents and has now closed the gender gap. Why is Ohio behind the curve?

    October 26, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  23. Democrat

    I am a life long democrat, but for the first time ever I am going to vote Republican. Obama has been acting like a spoiled child and I am ashamed to have ever supported him.

    October 26, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  24. Mike Bronx NY

    Hey Republicans! when will you be honest enough to tell Americans the truth about Iraq? you sent to their deaths over 3000 of our kids with our lies and over 20,000 of their people, wanna split hairs over 4 people that die in Libya ? really ?

    October 26, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  25. bencoates57

    Ohio is resisting the trend overtaking the rest of the nation, where Romney is dominant among independents and has now closed the gender gap. Why is Ohio behind the curve?

    Anyway, Obama's lead is still slipping there. I always said if gets to within 3, Romney will win on voter turnout.

    October 26, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
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