October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. bob

    Great. Let's hope there are still a sufficient number of decent people in this country, people with sufficient intelligence and education not to have forgotten how close the last republican administration came to destoying this nation, and people with the decency not to reward the lying, obstructionist republicans who have spent their energy and time trying to destroy Obama and our nation during the past 4 years. The choice is stark, and this election represents a test for America very similar to that which the German people failed in the 1930's. Kook ideology, mysticism, kook religion, and uneducated, ambitious, but completely immoral power hungry men vs. science, reason, morality, and decency.

    October 26, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  2. Mittology

    I've shown enough of my tax returns

    October 26, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  3. Paul

    Republican tears taste so good on a Friday! TGIF!!!

    October 26, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  4. W.G.

    People in Ohio aren´t stupid . They know Mr. Obama´s policies have been working . Despite the lies the GOP has
    put out . The Gov. backing of Green industries are 92% success . Romney´s Bain Capital successes are at around
    69% . Romney said let the Auto Industry go bankrupt and that he would´ve never gone after Bin Laden . Mr.Obama
    saved trhe Auto Industry and killed Bin Laden . Lets help Mr. Obama by voting out all the GOP senators and Congressmen out of office . They only care about raping Women and our Country .

    October 26, 2012 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  5. Sharon N

    Are you kidding me? Yesterday, 8 out of 11 polls have Obama up by only 1 point. So, I'm suppose to believe CNN poll over all the others? Come on CNN, you have lost your credibility because you're simply dishonest and in the tank for Obama, just like the rest of the mainstream media. Because all the mainstream media is in the tank for Obama, I believe Romney is probably up by about 3 points, when it's all said and done.

    October 26, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  6. rcsdinthehills

    I am proud to stand with President Obama, the candidate that is the true leader, that wants to be President because he wants to finish the job-(not just stroke his ego by being President), the one that supports the rights of every single American citizen, and the one who stands up for the middle class. You Go, Mr. President!

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  7. Name Ben

    If Romney it will be a big mess for Medicare food stamp, school loan and immigration

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  8. Paul

    I am not sure which Mitt is running for president? He changes so often that even in the last debate, he agreed with Obama on most things. Can you imagine what the lobbyists will do to him? Now, I hear that he is no longer doing any interviews with mainstream media until after the election. He can't do an interview because he is afraid to answer questions and that is because he doesn't know how he answered the last question on a position. Not worthy of being president.

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  9. answerback1

    CIA operators were denied request for help during Benghazi attack, sources say

    Father of ex-SEAL: Those who denied request for help at consulate 'murderers of my son'

    And the White house knew almost immediately.....In my opinion An American Disgrace perpetrated by this White House and Administration......
    Where is the courage, where was the Cavalry, isn't that an American
    value that we help our own after men have been put in a dangerous situation.

    God Bless the Brave who died.....

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  10. Jdevil1735

    CNN – don't ever say claim you are NOT biased? While you having this as breaking news – REAL news is going on with it being reported that the CIA annex asked THREE times for backup support and were flat out REFUSED by the Obama Administration. The so-called "unbiased" media wants to just push Libya under the rug.

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  11. Kevo

    I can not vote for anyone that does not respect our National Anthem and Colors. We all know that all candidates fall short of all the campaign promises but when I see our President with his hands by his side while others have their hands over their heart showing respect this really turned me against Obama. I served this Great Country in the Marine Corps and am a war veteran. Obama wants to downsize our Military. For this Country to operate from a position of less strength and economical turmoil is setting us all up for a disaster. Don't think for a minute that our enemies will ever stop with their hate for America, their mission is to kill Americans. Now we are finding out that the Americans that died in Benghazi actually called for help numerous times but were denied. What if that was one of your family members fighting for their life and was denied reinforcements? We always have military capabilities close by, ie aircraft, laser guided missles, drones etc. There were drones providing live feed back to the agencies but I guess your leaders were too busy campaigning and making TV appearances. RIP US NAVY SEALS Tyrone Woods & Glen Doherty- Real Heroes. Sorry our administration failed you

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  12. SP

    Don't believe Obama/Biden are up in polling in Ohio. Another slant by the media......... CNN, you guys are really getting boring...........

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  13. Russ

    The "Premature Election" in Ohio means that more of Obama's voters will finish voting early. Obama should win Ohio!!

    October 26, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  14. Hoosier53

    If INTEGRITY is the crux of a vote, then it SURE shouldn't be for obama!

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  15. Joan

    This is the reason why the World does not consider us to be Superior. No other country on the face of the earth does to people show such hatred and disdain for each other. We don't know how to talk to each other the sevllity on these blogs are astounding. You have people like Ann Coulter calling the President of the USA RETARD.... Not even in the 3rd countries does such disrepect to their leader exist. We should be ashame of ourselves. If Romney win this election you all can say goodbye to the World around us. Trust me it is going to be a rude awakiening for America. The GOP house has done everything in their power to bully this President out of office. Romney and Ryan had lied and spent billions of dollar to buy this election. You all forget that in 2010 you voted out most of the good Democrats in the HOuse and what did they do for you all???? You all get upset and ingnorant and don't listen and learn the facts. There is no way, no way that the President on his own could turn this economy around in 4 years. But as we speak the economy is improving month by month. This morning breaking news is that the GDC has is up to 2.0.. the expectation was 1.7 but it exceeed expectation. Houses are coming back. In the president next term he will get more done because the Republican will have no other choice but to work with him. Wise up people. The maths is simple...

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  16. EarnYourOwn

    What is the sampling error and waht is the over sampling spread? 3-4% sampling error probably wit ha 5-10% oversampling of DEM voters, is my guess.

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  17. jackson

    I never really wondered about Obama's sealed school records until yesterday when in my doctor's waiting room I listened to the program on the television (MSNBC) and heard the pundits in full spin control. Mocking, detraction, misdirection – all the usual stuff – why? So i looked at all the media sites when I got home and guess what? Quashed everywhere. I think they doth protest too much. I'll bet the records would be something other than just "C" grades. Is anyone curious? I am. It just may have an effect on the election.

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  18. Jdevil1735

    Don't ever say claim you are not biased? While you having this as breaking news – real news is going on with it being reported that the CIA annex asked THREE times for backup support and were flat out refused by the Obama Administration. The so-called "unbiased" media wants to just push Libya under the rug.

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  19. Planet Kolob

    Republican logic:

    CNN is biased, but FOX is "fair and balanced."

    *chuckles*

    October 26, 2012 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  20. FactCheck

    Wait, wait... what happened to the Mitt momentum? I thought he said that he was sizing up drapes for the Oval Office? What will Ann and kids do now? Waa waa not fair....

    October 26, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  21. Marley

    RIGHT-WING nuts don't get it: There will be no tax increases for 99% of Americans, and 98% small business owners.

    More over, TAX CUTS do not create JOBS! TAX CUTS only create PROFIT for owners to KEEP.

    TAX CUTS is WELFARE for the RICH.

    Job Creation is dictated by SUPPLY and DEMAND. SUPPLY is LIMITED. Think NATURAL RESOURCES ... NATURAL RESOURCES are LIMITED. It doesn't matter how much money you give people, if NATURAL RESOURCES are limited, you will not create jobs ... only INFLATION.

    For example, Apple cannot make all the iPads it wants because SUPPLY is LIMITED. The more iPads that Apple wants to create, the more pressure it asserts on its SUPPLY CHAIN. Hence, its SUPPLY CHAIN will increase PRICES ... not just for Apple but for everybody else who depends on the same SUPPLY CHAIN.

    That is why the BUSH TAX CUTS did not work before the GREAT RECESSION! Basic SUPPLY and DEMAND principals.

    October 26, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  22. Todd

    If you really want to help out the country, We need to hold Elections ever month, look at all the money is being spent, that could sure help with the national debt!

    October 26, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  23. EMcK

    Just me – No, it's not true. The overwhelmingly vast majority of people will never have any estate tax. It's a myth circulated for years by right-wing pundits. You have an exemption of $1 million dollars(in 2013). . . . unless your estate exceeds $1 million, your heirs pay no tax on their inheritance. The estate tax applies only to amounts over the exemption. The vast majority of estate taxes are avoided by simply transferring your property to a trust prior to your death and the trust can later transfer to your heirs.

    Let's put it this way, anyone who can get enough money to be subject to an estate tax should also be able to plan that estate properly.

    October 26, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  24. RomneyLOL

    Just getting the Republicans ready for 11/6. Better to slowly come to the realization over a few days, instead of getting your hopes brtually crushed in 1 night!

    October 26, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  25. Lynda/Minnesota

    Whoever got GOPers all excited that Romney/Ryan was going to win this election ought to be ashamed of themselves. Oh, that's right ... it's Mitt himself who's been spreading those lies.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    October 26, 2012 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15