October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

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Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. dcj

    Any story like this that does not disclose the weighting of the poll should be instantly dismissed. Its like a speedometer without numbers on it.

    October 26, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  2. Terry

    Nice try, but nobody's buying your left skewing polls anymore CNN. Where is your Benghazi coverage today???? There is breaking news about the refusal of the Obama administration to help, not once , not twice, but three times during the firefight that night. Those brave Navy Seals finally ignored the order to "stand down" to rescue their comrades and paid with their lives. There is also an interview with one of the Navy Seal's fathers calling Obama and his cronies murderers. You can stick your heads in the sand and pretend this isn't happening but the "annointed one" is dangerously close to impeachment proceedings.

    October 26, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  3. gr8 usa

    Mitt Romney is losing in all of his home states (MA, MI, NH, CA)...these people know him best.

    October 26, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  4. Tony

    Given the statistic marginal error of +-4 to 5%, it means that Barack and Mitt are tied.

    October 26, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  5. Pete

    These factual ads about Romneys womenizing with abortion being illegal in repealing Roe vs Wade and cutting Planned Parenthood is working.Women as well as minorities are taking notice and the Romney so called momentum will change,it'll be wider shortly after these ads start taking hold of intelligent women and the minorities the republicans have ignorently railed against..Wait till November 7th and see just how close it is because it was like this with McCain wasn't it and look what happened right,people do notice and vote!!

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  6. cgire

    This is a major election. The choice – incrementally build on the work that's been done, or throw everything out and start over.

    So, if you're not voting, you are leaving this critical decision to others.

    You're letting your neighbor vote for you. You're letting your grandpa vote for you. You're letting your ex-boyfriend vote for you. You're letting your crazy Uncle Charlie vote for you.

    Even if you believe the candidates' differences are not overwhelming, there is always a choice. Even if "you'd rather there was someone else," there is always a choice.

    And think about it – who benefits if they can keep you from voting?

    I'm not letting that happen with my vote.

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  7. moses

    Obam should watch up,because Romney is on neck to neck.He should change tactics.President Obama we need you for the second term.

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  8. Buckeyestate

    Exactly, this news network is a freaking JOKE!!! How about reporting on Libya and why the administration is telling LIE after LIE.

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  9. Mac

    We Buckeyes can spot a fraud. (We see you, Mitt)

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  10. @GuileOfTheGods

    Notice how they don't say they sampled any cell phones? I guess CNN polls are still stuck in the 20th century. Maybe if they sampled some modern technology instead of lanlines then we could get a more accurate poll, because it's gonna hurt when Obama comes up victorious.

    October 26, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  11. Carol

    LOL at Obama winning independents. Every other polling outfit is showing otherwise.

    October 26, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  12. Luke,AZ

    President Obama is by far the better choice. Gov. Romney will set women back 100 years. He wants women to be modeled after mormon women, subservient to men. There are no women in positions of authourity in the mormon church. He can't even support the Lilly Ledbetter Act.

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  13. Albert

    CNN your oversampling dems by 7 or 8%. Please stop it, Gallup and Rassmussen have it even.

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  14. DARNELL

    So whatcha want, people? An Obama welfare state that taxes you at 40%? NO THANKS!!!!

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  15. gr8 usa

    Terry, Turn off Faux News and respect the wishes of the families of those killed that night. They have explicitly stated that we should honor their loved ones by NOT politicizing the horrible incident. Please have some respect for the heroes who died serving our country.

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  16. Dave Jaipersaud

    Here is the big change Romney and the Republicans are talking about. It doesn’t matter how Romney and the Republican try to spin their policies, the American people know how disastrous those policies have been for this country, especially for the Middle Class and less fortunate.

    Americans are not stupid. How can anyone even thing Romney’s policies will be better for this country. Romney and the Republicans policies from 2001 to 2008 brought this great nation to its knees, their policies caused the Great Recession, their policies wiped out almost 10,000,000 jobs as a direct result of the Great Recession, their policies wiped out retirement savings for tens of millions of Americans as a direct result to the Great Recession, their policies took a $1 trillion surplus to a $13 trillion deficit, their policies resulted in the decline in the percentage of Americans that are in the middle class, their policies resulted in tens of millions of Americans without healthcare, their policies resulted in millions of Americans losing their homes, their policies will be detrimental to Latinos and all other minorities, their policies will result in another war in the Middle East, and the list goes on.

    No Americans in their right mind will believe that Romney/Ryan policies will be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. People will remember what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. We are not that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America (this great Nation) to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  17. 4Wonderlnd

    Thank you Ohio your state may have saved this country from a complete corporate takeover. Under a Romney/Ryan Regime Wall Street would finish what they started under Bush. So from someone who doesn't quite make Romney's definition of "middle class" those who make $250,000. a year I thank you from the bottom of my heat OHIO

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  18. PBUH

    Liberal white women are one issue voters. yuc k.
    It does nt matter the country is going down the drain.. as long as they can abort thier babies they are happy.

    October 26, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  19. Dave Jaipersaud

    Romney and the Republican idea of change and to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. I am sure they would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out most Americans life savings. Basically that is what the Republicans are proposing. They are saying lets fire the guy that stabilized your investments and grow it to almost what it was prior to 2007 and let’s rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. Do they think most Americans are stupid?

    Here is the real hoax. The Republican idea to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. Here is something to think about. Republicans would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out their life savings. Basically that is what they are proposing. Republicans are telling us to fire the guy that stabilized and grow our investments to almost what it was worth prior to 2007 and rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. We have to be really stupid to listen to them and rehire a guy whose policies wiped out investment in the first place. I would hope that Americans are smarter than that.

    Here is a simple way of looking at who is best for the economy. Would you invest with a guy whose investment policies wiped out your investment portfolio or would you invest with a guy whose investment policies stabilized your investment portfolio and is currently growing your portfolio. Even Romney wouldn't invest his own money with the guy whose policies wiped out everyone’s investment and now he wants us to do it. So why would anyone even consider voting for any Republican.

    How can any Americans think that Romney/Ryan policies would be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. Have people forgotten what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. Are we that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America (this great Nation) to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    October 26, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  20. Todd From Missouri

    Why take the time to read the CNN poll.. They are so far left.. I would like to see who they polled.
    You sure wont hear them talk about Benghazi. I think the election is much farther apart in favor of Romney.

    October 26, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  21. poopyonastickmakesmesick

    This poll is BS. Are you averaging early voters and those who didn't vote yet. You say "Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day". That tells me Romney is up, no?

    October 26, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  22. Luke,AZ

    Gov. Romney, SHOW US YOUR TAXES FOT THE LAST 10 YEARS !!!

    October 26, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  23. PBUH

    Evil obama is a coward too.

    October 26, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  24. Gregg

    Even CNN has to admit Obama's in the lead.....Sorry to the newly minuted right wingers who are destroying CNN....Maybe you can get your act together after obama's sworn in for a second term!

    October 26, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  25. david

    For the people who think they are not better off, don't be selfish, just because you don't have job, doesn't mean the rest of the country in the same boat Instead of taking everyone down with you look at yourself and figure out what's wrong... Instead of listening to fox news, look at the business/money sections…that is where your facts are.
    During the primaries...the Republican Party was throwing Romney under the bus, showing his flip flops and lies!!!! Now all of you folks are oblivious to that taking place!
    Obama didn't lie, he had obstruction!!!!He promised he would work hard for the goals he laid out (run the tape)...
    You are not giving any weight to the other party's ability to obstruct! McConnell said the goal was to make Obama a one term president….AGAIN; you folks are oblivious to that taking place! And as iff that would not have any impact in obama’s ability to do anything….

    October 26, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
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