October 26th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio

(CNN) - With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely after Monday's final presidential debate.

"The race in the Buckeye State is essentially unchanged since early October, when a CNN/ORC poll taken just after the first presidential debate also showed President Obama with a four-point margin over Governor Romney," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Surveys by other organizations conducted last month, before the first debate, had Obama ahead of Romney by seven to 10 points.

The new poll indicates that Obama has a double digit lead among those who have already voted absentee or early ballot or plan to do so before Election Day, with Romney holding the edge among people who plan to cast their ballot on November 6.

According to the survey, the gender gap has tightened a bit, but the basic storyline remains the same. Obama holds a 56%-42% advantage among female voters, with the GOP challenger up 50%-44% among men.

"In other major demographic groups, the movement since early October has been in the expected direction, with Obama picking up ground among younger voters, lower-income voters and urban voters and losing support among older voters, suburbanites, and higher-income voters," adds Holland. "Looking at age, for example, Obama has gained three points among voters under 50 years old since early October, but lost three points among voters who are 50 and older."

The poll indicates Obama maintains a small but critical advantage among independent voters. In early October, he had a 50%-46% margin among independents - virtually identical to the 49%-44% edge he has today

Among those who have voted early or plan to vote before Election Day, Obama holds a 59%-38% lead, with Romney up 51%-44% among those who say they'll vote on Election Day. Ninety-two percent of likely voters say they've made up their minds, with 4% saying they could change their minds.

Campaigning Thursday in Cleveland, the president urged Ohioans to vote early: "Ohio you can vote now, you don't have to vote later."

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates. This week alone, Obama campaigned in the state on Tuesday and Thursday. Romney spent Thursday making a swing throughout the state, and returns to Ohio Friday evening.

"Ohio is going to set the course for the nation," Romney said Thursday in Defiance, Ohio.

Overall, the campaigns, party committees, and super PACs and other independent groups have spent more than $118 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election, with the numbers evenly divided between the two sides. Those figures come from Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising for its clients.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 48%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 4%, Stein at 2% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

American Research Group also released a live operator, non-partisan poll of likely voters in Ohio on Friday. It was also conducted entirely after the final debate. It indicates Obama with a 49%-47% edge over Romney, which is within the survey's sampling error.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Ohio
soundoff (373 Responses)
  1. youknowbetter

    Search: CIA operators were denied request for help during Benghazi attack
    But no mention of this on CNN. Strange.

    October 26, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  2. Az

    I would vote for Romney if he would let the bush tax end. Why keep doing the same thing, for another four years. Let's try something new/old that worked before. Obama wins

    October 26, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  3. Toledo Resident

    Simply Awesome!

    Obama/Biden

    No Vulture/Voucher 1040

    October 26, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  4. Evolve

    Mitt Rob'me – you done son!

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  5. Mark

    Most accurate Pollsters for the 2010 Elections:

    #1 – YouGov/Polimetrix 0.072 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #2 – SurveyUSA 0.077 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #3 RealClearPolitics.com 0.084 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #4 – FiveThirtyEight.com 0.098 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #5 – Pollster.com 0.100 (Has Obama winning winning Ohio)
    #6 – Public Policy Polling 0.101 (Has Obama winningOhio)
    #7 – Fox News 0.105 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #8 – Quinnipiac 0.107 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #9 – CNN/Time 0.120 (Has Obama winning Ohio)
    #10 – The Hill 0.123 (Unknow)

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  6. samikep

    Obama better be worried about impeachment right now..

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  7. reality check

    Ohio is a union state. Obama gave up Delphi non-union pension to save the pensions of union works....so why would this surprise anyone?

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  8. mj

    It amazes me that so many are so ignorant to the truth. Obama has failed and will continue his failed policies. He can not work with either Congress or the Senate. So how many "Executive Orders" will be signed if reelected?! Another one of his "Brainstorm" Energy Company filed bankruptcy. He has given millions to companies that have no right to be funded by Taxpayer money. Oh – don't pay taxes? Sorry – You just want your "free stuff" and do not care about your children and grandchildren being saddled with trillions of debt that has to be paid.

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  9. Brett

    More leftist propaganda trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Nobody is voting for Obama. Let's get real. He's a failure, he's a liar, and he engaged in the single biggest scandal in the history of our nation with this Libya mess. Oh, but CNN isn't reporting on that! I wonder why. You guys are terrible Americans and are helping in its downfall.

    October 26, 2012 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. MW

    for the record. Romney has released his past 10 years of tax returns, if you were anywhere else but CNN you would know that. Also, how can anyone think Obama is honest, when he lied to us for 2 weekd about Libya. He should be put in jail for TREASON. He is not on your side America. Romney may not be the answer, but at least he is on our side.

    October 26, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  11. ShawnDH

    I have never seen a president more deserving of reelection than President Obama. What he has accomplished after inheriting a nation in freefall is nothing short of historic and astonishing. He has created more private sector jobs in 2-1/2 years than both Bushes did in their combined 12 and he has led this nation out of one of the worst financial crises in history.

    OBAMA 2012!

    Then Obama on Mount Rushmore!

    October 26, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  12. allison

    Who would vote for a Bengazi-gate cover-up? Two Seals fathers report that neither Obama nor Hillary would look them in the eyes, and their handshakes were weak, and Hillary still clung to the video story. Valerie Jarrett has more security than our consulate had.
    Executive privilege for Fast and Furious? Why?

    October 26, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  13. Dina

    I don't understand how anyone can vote for Obama when he was watching the whole Libya terrorist attack on real TV and would not let the CIA help those poor people. The Ambassador and the other 3 people did not have to die. We did not go in and help our own. This is worst thing any president has ever done and it's not even being covered by the news!!. This man should be in jail. Why is the media not covering this? I guess they must be part of the coverup. PEOPLE WAKE UP. This man cannot be trusted and neither can the media. They were all watching the whole Libya attack – Obama, Panetta, Hillary and they let it go on. Hillary had the gaul to tell the father of one of the men murdered that they would punish the person that made the video!! Are any of you listening, watching, anything? My gosh, how does Obama get away with the stuff he does?

    October 26, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  14. Lillie

    AS much as the President has done for Ohio I can't believe it is that close, I thought they were a state with common sense, they know Romney hasn't been behind then at all, why the change of heart?
    It might be slow but it shows we are going in the right direction.
    Romney hasn't even stated how he is going to create 12 million jobs the only way is coming off of what the President started.
    People should be able to tell what he did for Ohio that he is going to work on jobs for the rest of the country.
    I also can't believe why the women back down supporting there own rights and not only that why thier husband aren't standing behind them.
    This is something that will reflect thier lifes if they get a judge in to support thier train of thought they are going to follow through with what they say.
    You don't realize that what they are going to do to this country is going to put use back in the dark age. It took us 50 years to get where we are and they are going to tear it down the minute they get in if they win.
    They want to leave the midde class behind, tax relief for the 1 % take all the benefits from the people,, medicare into a voucher program, take away healthcare posssiblity of another war,whos kids do you think are going to fight it,
    I can' believe the lies and the flip flops how you can't tell what Romney is really going to do.
    Look who he is surrounding him Bushes gang, Bolton Cheney, and Rowe.do you really want to go back to Bushes presidency but I think he might be worse.You people need to wake up!

    October 26, 2012 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  15. Hogan's Goat

    Romney will pee all over the GOP if elected; the economy will tank if his dumb ideas get any traction and there will never be another Republican president. All the smart Republicans stayed away from candidacy this year, leaving the brain-dead clown circus which brought out the $9.99 pizza as a serious contender for the nation's toughest job. Let Obama finish saving your country and then run in 2016, when it's safe.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  16. nilla

    Alright, Dems and Repubs....time again to switch spots on whether or not the polls are relevant!

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  17. Deathstalker

    What was the for democrats in this poll? Was it 9 like the bogus Time poll? These pls are still assuming Obamas going to have similar turnout to 2008. No way that's happening this time around.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  18. Adam

    @Carly Schoen – all the unemployment? Its only 7% in Ohio...thats why Obama has an edge in Ohio. Unemployment in our state is lower than most parts of the country.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  19. Donna Tabor

    I live in Southwest Ohio, which is probably the most conservative part of the state (home of John Boehner). But I'm seeing more Obama signs than I would have expected.

    The Obama camp "started this supposed war on women garbage"? What? Did they FORCE the righties to say the ridiculous things they've said, or force them to try to make legislation that takes away women's rights? That's one of the stupidest things I've seen yet.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  20. kiwisepp

    you should not be surprised if those right wing folk question the poll

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  21. Maui808

    Yeah, thats before we have voting machine malfunctions, like in Florida and the "Frankenhurricane" comes a shore to the Northeast coast on during the election week and wipes out all the votes that were cast!!!!!

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  22. HomeSweetHome

    Well if you have never seen a Corporate take over in process take a good look.

    The cool party is this time the American People are not letting Romney/Bain, Corporations and the Republican far Right roll over them.

    Way to go Ohio.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  23. Al Ford

    As a new voter, with a large 401k and good professional career I'm voting Obama. He seems to care more for America wheras Romney represents the rich.

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  24. Messi

    This poll is a stupid CNN and other medias strategy to make Obama win. But do you have eyes to see how we are under Obama , how the world sucks with a socialist-demagogic president, the economy , the middle east , obamacare etc.. Lets vote for Romney at least he knows about economy , and economy matters most for America.
    -from Germany-

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  25. john

    "The private sector is doing
    fine"..........(06/08/12, President Obama)

    You just can't make this stuff up. This clown is sooooooo out of his lane it is now becoming pathetic and frankly, an embarrassment in Kabuki theater of the absurd. POTUS Bill Clinton gets it. His "woodshed walkbacks" are feeble and insincere as any body language expert can attest. Hell if Bill Clinton had been POTUS the last 3 years we would be adding 400,000 jobs a month and a GDP of 4% or greater would be a given. I don't agree with Bill Clinton on many things but I do agree he understands business and political pragmatism regardless of which side of the political spectrum you endorse.

    Right now there is no leadership, inspiration, aspiration, or entrepreneurial drive. Right now everyone from the private citizen with an idea in his garage; to the Fortune 500 companies, are sitting and waiting for November 2012 to bring a sweeping change to this unsustainable economic disaster of a CLUELESS Administration.
    No one has given up on the American Dream if they are smart.
    America has simply given up and lost all hope for change in this idiotic theater of the absurd which will be brought to a close on November 6, 2012.

    To quote Dick Grasso; .......(09/11/2012)....."bet against America and you will lose"......

    October 26, 2012 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15