Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. Gurgyl

    You move forward, we move forward–we all move forward. Yes, on Obama12.

    October 29, 2012 08:59 am at 8:59 am |
  2. Middle Class Independent Swing State Voter

    It's so obvious that CNN is trying to make the race look close right up to the end. For them it's all about ratings and trying not to seem biased. Unfortunately, they have lost all credibility for sensible people who can see that Romney/Ryan will lose this election.

    October 29, 2012 09:02 am at 9:02 am |
  3. Charlie

    @Dar – If the 1%ers make less, you lose jobs. They are use to making do much profit to pay for peoples incomes and expansion.
    ------------
    And if the 1% get their tax break, what makes you think that jobs will magically appear. They'll just take the money and go buy and other yacht or his & hers Porsches.

    October 29, 2012 09:05 am at 9:05 am |
  4. Middle Class Independent Swing State Voter

    The only way the Republicans win the election is through voter fraud. The only people stupid enough to vote for the Republican ticket are extremely rich (or think they are) or loyal right ring extrememist (uneducated/racist). Those are the only people who wish to go back to the same Bush policies that got us into this mess.

    October 29, 2012 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  5. Roger

    Minnesotans have too much sense to have Romney take their state. If it comes out that way, you know voter fraud of some kind is involved. I think we should do away with polls altogether and just let the people VOTE. Obama/Biden 2012!

    October 29, 2012 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  6. Tabeth

    Dear Americans,
    Yes I see and believe that Obama did not deliver all that He could have done ( Senate and House of Rep)
    He did though his level best...and he loves the country and the american people....I give him my vote for the second term.

    October 29, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  7. Cyraneau

    Minnesota has a long history of voting for bizarre candidates; Jesse Ventura as governor is one example; the non-funny comedian as senator is another. So it does not surprise me that there are still those in your that state willing to disregard all fact and logic to support a candidate whose only attribute is his black skin. That's right; think about it; if Barack Obama was white with the same resume could he even have been elected municipal dog catcher? He played the race card from the bottom of the deck. The unspoken but very present message from the Obamites was: vote for this black man and your racist sins will be forgiven. Happily, we have awoken from the trance of hope and change.

    October 29, 2012 09:23 am at 9:23 am |
  8. Anonymous

    "In 2008, the R-J’s final poll had Barack Obama beating John McCain in Nevada by 4 percentage points. Obama won by 12.5. A late poll in 2004 had President George W. Bush beating Sen. John Kerry by 10. Bush won by 3."

    This article references Mason Dixon polls and it's polling bias. R-J also outsources it's polling to Mason Dixon. While it may be accurate in it's predictions of the final winner, there is a great deal of discretion as to it's percentage numbers. Even by this Mason Dixon standard, Obama will win Minnesota. By how much is not revelent, especially not on election day. A win is a win is a win. Minnesota stays blue.

    October 29, 2012 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
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