Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
6 years ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.

Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. n

    America can't handle the truth!

    October 28, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  2. Madison

    Guarantee that President Obama is in the WHite House this very second making sure that every agency with any connection to the massive storm is on their A game. Meanwhile romney is out lying...his usual passtime until he becomes an historical footnote as the first non-Christian presidential candidate on a major party ticket and the guy who lost the 2012 election.

    October 28, 2012 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |
  3. DENNA

    I don't know how this election is going to turn out, but it seems that the conservatives aren't that into Romney. Frankly, I am worried that Republicans are voting for a man without a financial plan. He says he has one, but where is it? I early-voted for President Obama. Things will get better and at least we know the nature of the man. I do not trust Romney at all. Ironically, America will rebound and this shyster, if he replaces President Obama, will claim he did it. And, of course, he GOP puppets will believe him.

    October 28, 2012 03:23 pm at 3:23 pm |
  4. hoapres

    Obama has won the 2012 nonelection.

    Let's move on.

    October 28, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  5. GOP in Trouble!

    Romney refuses to give specifics on any of his economic plans. He flip-flops on everything – abortion, taxes, defense, immigration, women's rights, Medicare, Social Security, Obamacare/Romneycare, gun control, and most every other issue of the times. Fact checker show him to constantly distort every fact and openly lie. His support for the Ryan Budget Plan directly conflicts with his lies about Medicare. Lyin' Ryan is worse. Romney showed his complete inability to serve as Commander-In-Chief during the last debate. He had no clue how to manage foreign affairs.

    The economy is now improving and had we listened to Romney's guidance – General Motors would be dead and Bin Laden would be alive.

    October 28, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  6. PAUL

    Obama is still polling stronger and steady. Romney has never lead in this state. This is one poll that is trending his way. I" wait till election day... Minnesota hope you stay Blue!!

    October 28, 2012 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  7. caliz

    Wishful thinking.
    Romney should be contesting Massachusetts (where he was governor) and Michigan (where he was born and his father was governor) before dreaming about Minnesota.

    Bill Clinton carried Arkansas (a solid red state) twice because people over there knew how good he was as governor. This is not the case with Romney. That tells you all you need to know about this liar / flip flopper.

    October 28, 2012 04:00 pm at 4:00 pm |
  8. Deez

    I've never seen a company hire based purely off money in the bank. If people aren't buying their product or service enough to necessitate expanding their staff, why hire? What causes people to buy more products? Money in the PEOPLE'S pockets, not corporations pockets. Companies do not print money. They get their income from people buying their product. The power should always be given to the people, including which companies survive or go out of business based on the people buying or not buying a company's product. This helps ensure quality products, which is the way Capitalism is supposed to work. Staying in business based on free money from the government from tax cuts and subsidies (corporate welfare) is not a quality foundation, which is Romney's plan.

    October 28, 2012 04:00 pm at 4:00 pm |
  9. Anonymous

    Only interest in this poll is the amount of Republican pixie dust that was thrown to get those results. This is almost as good as the Romney and Obama are tied Ohio poll. Funny, but not relevent.

    October 28, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  10. Mike in Texas

    Romney only threw 30K into Minnesota. If Minnesota was truly in play, Romney would be visiting and spending more money. It's fools gold. Romney has to pound away in Ohio because he is losing there and Virginia where it is trending towards the President.

    October 28, 2012 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  11. Anonymous

    Chill, GOPers. Minnesota stays blue. The Star Tribune outsources their polling to Mason-Dixon - a polling company not known for its accuracy in polling.

    October 28, 2012 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  12. Bill

    For the people that refer to the use of Republican "pixie dust" as the motivator for the results of the poll, all one has to do is to understand that the Star Tribune is the voice for the radica left of the Twin Cities. If anything, the leftist Trib is trying to motivate the DFL in the state of Minnesota. The fact that Romney is even relatively in play speaks volumes on how disasterous the past 4 years have been.

    October 28, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  13. matt

    Go Romney

    October 28, 2012 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  14. Anonymous


    How silly of you to think I don't see past the Republican narrative being offered. Romney buys ad time in Minnesota. Romney now closing in on Obama in Minnesota based on a Republican leaning pollster (not an actual Star Tribune poll). This has been happening throughout the year. It's only becoming more noticable the closer we get to election day. An example: Romney throws out a few feel good women ads. Romney cuts a 15% women pro Obama vote percentage to a pro Obama 2% only percentage overnight. And so forth.

    October 28, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  15. Rick McDaniel

    Obama is STILL DROPPING in Minnesota, and by election day.....he WILL lose!

    October 28, 2012 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  16. sayhi2yourmom4me

    I highly doubt Romney can win Minnesota.

    October 28, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  17. Texan

    You can tell by the made-up names and similar comments in this blog that it is ONE person (Dem) replying. True Minnesota people are favoring Romney.

    October 28, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  18. Anonymous

    "If anything, the leftist Trib is trying to motivate the DFL in the state of Minnesota."

    Minnesota has one of the highest voter turnout averages in the country regardless of who is on the ticket thanks to the DFL and other organizations. I doubt it needs a Romney ad to up the ante on voter turnout. Romney is not even relatively close. He hasn't been all year. As was stated earlier, the "leftist" Trib outsources its polling to Mason-Dixon, a notoriously ineffective pollster.

    As to your anti-Obama bias: Yawn.

    October 28, 2012 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  19. Marie MD

    President Obama should win this election on what he has done and will do in the next four years.
    Anyone who thinks that the twit who has flip flopped and lied and retracted and changed his mind numerous times on every subject is worthy of being our king, president, is completely crazy.
    The bully bishop has shown time and again that he has no character and he would sell his own mother just to win the presidency. We don't need somebody with the morals of a worm (sorry worms at least you are good for the Earth) running our country.

    October 28, 2012 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |

    I predit some magic game changer will blast all these tied polls out to far right overnight as we dip into election day - I dont know what it is but I smell "Republican" everywhere –WH, Senate, House, State Governors - I SMELL IT COMING -OH LORD -- I CAN ALMOST TASTE THE "R" ROLLING ON MY TONGUE

    October 28, 2012 05:29 pm at 5:29 pm |
  21. Milton K. Wiah

    The press want to sway this election of favor of Romney. Arizona is not part of this election. Romney is 47%
    Obama is 44.5% why didn't they talk about it.
    Bill Clinton turned red state blue twice because he was a good governor but Mitt state as governor will
    remain blue even the place he was born will remain blue.

    October 28, 2012 05:42 pm at 5:42 pm |
  22. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    It's a very weak argument when a Republican says "the economy was bad" when Obama took office but he made it worst when in fact not one(1) Republican lifted a finger to help a bad situation because they stuck together like a "pack of wolves" waiting to feast on the American people. The "wolf pack leaders" were none other than Mitch McConnell backed by his loving sweetheart Rush Limbaugh and all the other little scared wolves followed.

    October 28, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  23. Thomas

    Mitt Romney = Michele Bachmann = GW Bush

    October 28, 2012 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  24. itsy_bitsy

    I read these comments and realize most of these people have their heads in the ground, or up an even worse place! Romney is cleaning Obama's clock, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take some of these really, really blue states! Prepare for defeat liberals!!

    October 28, 2012 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  25. Shannon


    Guarantee that President Obama is in the WHite House this very second making sure that every agency with any connection to the massive storm is on their A game. Meanwhile romney is out lying...his usual passtime until he becomes an historical footnote as the first non-Christian presidential candidate on a major party ticket and the guy who lost the 2012 election.


    Do you pass your hate, racism and bigotry on to any children you might have, I hope not. Your petty personal attacks on the President show us what kind of person you are, crawl back under your rock, and do it soon for the good of man kind.

    October 28, 2012 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
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