Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. Dan B

    Mike, Obama is not winning in VA.

    October 28, 2012 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  2. donna

    Last time the polls had Romney up, so I switched my vote to Romney. Now they said Obama is up, so I have to switch back again. I don't want to be racist, but I want to back a winner. If Romney goes up again, I'll just switch back, lol!

    October 28, 2012 06:02 pm at 6:02 pm |
  3. Chris in NY

    This is an out liar. If President Obama is leading by 3points in Minnesota why is Backman in the toughest election of her political life? The media will milk this malaise among voters to the last drop. May be if they hype things a little bit people will actually begin to believe this report.

    October 28, 2012 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  4. Kirk

    Finally people are starting to pay serious attention and wonder who will really fix the economy. I can't bear the idea of another four years with Obama. I need to be able to retire!!

    October 28, 2012 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  5. darknesscrown

    HIGHLY unlikely that a Republican wins MN. Those are 10 electorals that belong to the Dems. I will actually seriously consider that there is some sort of manipulation if Romney, of all people, wins in Minnesota. The GOP that took over control of the legislature there in 2010 is likely not going to keep it's power because they are crazy. Minnesota belongs to Obama.

    October 28, 2012 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  6. darknesscrown

    By the way, as anyone who even has a rudimentary understanding of how Presidential elections work, you know that the popular vote (which is what polls measure) is meaningless. The general populace, in the end, does NOT elect a President. The electoral college does. It's 538 people who are selected to make that choice. First candidate to get 270 wins. Popular vote is more like a suggestion.

    October 28, 2012 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  7. petena

    We all need to try to get everyone that can to vote early especialy in light of the storm and other unforseen events that may come our way. For the life of me I can not understand why anyone would vote for a person who LIES constantly. To think that Jeep Corporation had to come out and say that Romney lied before it impacted their stock, etc. Romney is NOT a good person.

    October 28, 2012 06:13 pm at 6:13 pm |
  8. Fred

    "A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error."

    So ... survey results are "always" withing the sampling error, even when the percentage difference is larger than the sampling error? Very strange, that.

    October 28, 2012 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  9. WallyG

    Yeah, sure he is! LOL! Does that mean everyone in MN got that Obama plan coloring book with the crayons?

    October 28, 2012 06:18 pm at 6:18 pm |
  10. Marcus

    Are some people dumb enough to vote again for Obama.
    He was a community organizer with no executive experience and see where he has taken the country.
    His admin and staff have been clueless and does one have to mention the mess with fast and furious and the recent tragic incident in Benghazi.
    Obama is immature and a Hollywood attention seeker.

    October 28, 2012 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  11. AnaHadWolves

    This is the opportunity, Minnesotans, to redeem yourselves. After electing the egregious and noxious Michele Bachmann, you can redeem yourselves by voting for President Obama. If you truly want more loons, more nutballs and more government intrusion in your personal affectional and medical choices, then, vote for Willard Romney.

    Just don't say that you weren't warned.

    October 28, 2012 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  12. works4me

    Romney's business experience?? He ran a business putting people out of business, to build his business. How impressive.
    The fact of the matter is, America is not a business. No one should even try to run it as one.
    America is a country. My country and I don't want that sleazy, lying used car salesman offering it up to whoever has the most money.

    October 28, 2012 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  13. Patrick Ujadughele

    GOP, do not get carried away by this poll. This newspaper wants you to think MN is in play so as to draw some of your billion dollar bounty in advertising. Stay away from MN. It is solidly BLUE. Go elsewhere . You can never win here. Obama will win this State, big time.

    October 28, 2012 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  14. NEVER to VOTE REPUBLICAN again

    MN for OBAMA and proud of it!

    October 28, 2012 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  15. edmundburkeson

    This must be another CNN poll and even this one is surprisingly close. The fact is, Minnesota is a Democratic state and should have a much bigger spread than this. Trouble, trouble for the Democrats.

    October 28, 2012 06:35 pm at 6:35 pm |
  16. Eric

    I disagree with many of the Democratic posts on this site. You must've lived in a dream world for the past 4 years. I'm a independent voter and it's time to wake up and get the USA back on track! Come on Minnesota!! Let's help get Romney in the White House come November!!!

    October 28, 2012 06:38 pm at 6:38 pm |
  17. Denny

    Doubt it. I think when people get into the privacy of the voting booth they will vote for real change – as in no more Obama.

    October 28, 2012 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  18. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    It is in the margin of error, but the campaign isn't over yet.

    October 28, 2012 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  19. difff777

    CNN looks to polls that show the race even. They need to appear neutral in this. Next we will hear that it is close in PA. On election night, they will stall to show an Obama victory, as they did last time. I wish they would show more journalistic honesty, bring back Ted Turner!

    October 28, 2012 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  20. The Unsub

    Giants win the world series, Obama wins the election! NEXT!

    October 28, 2012 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  21. MNresidents

    They conducted a poll by calling land line numbers. The only people who have landline numbers are older folks and people with homes. SO your missing a lot of voter demographics

    October 28, 2012 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  22. Joe

    Betting odds on the election as of October 28, 2012 are Obama: 4-11 Romney: 2-1. This is the paddy power figure but Las Vegas is probably similar. Romney supporters, you are really wasting your time posting stuff on the internet. Instead, you should get as much money together as you can and bet it on Romney because when he wins you will double your money! Your stocks might go up a little if Romney wins but they’re sure not going to double in value, are they? An opportunity like this doesn’t come very often. Come election day, you’ll be rolling in dough and the hated liberals won’t even have their food stamps!

    October 28, 2012 07:11 pm at 7:11 pm |
  23. Johnny DC

    @Madison – This has to be one of the least-educated "guarantees" I've ever seen. This same president has spent more time on the golf course than in meetings with his security team. This same president travelled to several campaign events and parties with celebrities while he and his administration was well aware of a terrorist disaster in Libya.

    Yet we are supposed to rally behind your "guarantee" that he's actually where he's supposed to be, leading the nation he promised to protect, all of the sudden?

    Doubtful.

    I guarantee that he's got no solution for the impending Medicare crisis, the defaulting Social Security nightmare, Iran's soon-to-be-ready Nuclear program, stagnant growth, negative job gains, or any other real issue affecting us. He's great at sounding good, telling lies with a straightish face, and poisoning American against American.

    ------

    Madison
    Guarantee that President Obama is in the WHite House this very second making sure that every agency with any connection to the massive storm is on their A game. Meanwhile romney is out lying...his usual passtime until he becomes an historical footnote as the first non-Christian presidential candidate on a major party ticket and the guy who lost the 2012 election.

    October 28, 2012 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  24. norma jean

    I just hope the voters remember that among his wealthy friends at a very exclusive dinner,, Mitt Romney ,called 47% of the voters..freeloading nobodys who didn't want to work any way....{{not his exact words,,,same meaning} He has no concern for us the American people....he just wants to be called "Mr. President".....and he will do or say ANYTHING to accomplish what has been his goal for years!!.....I believe this is his sixth try!!!!!!"Nuff said.....

    October 28, 2012 07:19 pm at 7:19 pm |
  25. Jenny

    I am from Minnesota and I don't know anyone voting for Romney. All lawn signs are for Obama too!

    October 28, 2012 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
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