Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. Andae Mapsio Sr @ Port Moresby, PNG

    Good Morning Americans
    Greetings from this side of the Pacific. I have been closely following your election. What I realise is that Mitt Romney may be out of touch for Lower and Middle Class Americans.. He seems to deviate and flip-flop too often in his TV campaigns we watch whilst President Obama is true and direct. Romney does not seem to have a clear plan in all areas but goes about accusing Obama in all areas that President outline. Rommney could be way away with the Rich folks and small Americans will ne be cared for...Over to you folks. May the Lord's Plan be fulfilled at his Own timing.

    October 28, 2012 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  2. Russ in Md.

    I hear a lot of panic in these blogs.

    October 28, 2012 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  3. Independent and watching

    As I watch all the polling and bashing I'm getting the feeling BHO is starting to sweat. I'm just guessing that unless something changes BHO will lose about 40 states and the election. I will make my choice on election day as I'm sure others like me will do the same. I want someone who will reach across the isle and work for whats best for the USA, not for Democrats or Republicans.

    October 28, 2012 07:36 pm at 7:36 pm |
  4. cbr

    Mr.Romney says that he has created jobs. I wish he would tell us where. Massachusetts was on the bottom of the list of that studied the creation of jobs. His company, Bain, merged companies and managed takeovers of companies. Does anyone believe that jobs were created? Of course not, there were thousands of pink slips. Why are we letting ourselves boo fooled.

    American countries are being bought by foreign companies. The top people of those companies make money form the deal. The workers get pink slips as the jobs are taken overseas. The latest in a state that is leaning Republican. Did Mr. Romney or Mr. Ryan say or do anything about the latest takeover. Mr. Romney has nothing to say because this is a good business practice to him. Good luck folks. Unemployment will rise again in North Carolina. and other states where this is happening.

    October 28, 2012 07:37 pm at 7:37 pm |
  5. cbr

    Mr.Romney says that he has created jobs. I wish he would tell us where and when. The western part of he state watched as businesses and plants closed and their cities suffered. When I went to Springfield, Chicopee or Holyoke I saw what was happening. Massachusetts was on the bottom of the list of that studied the creation of jobs. His company, Bain, merged companies and managed takeovers of companies. Does anyone believe that jobs were created? Of course not, there were thousands of pink slips. Why are we letting ourselves be fooled.

    American countries are being bought by foreign companies. The top people of those companies make money form the deal. The workers get pink slips as the jobs are taken overseas. The latest in a state that is leaning Republican. Did Mr. Romney or Mr. Ryan say or do anything about the latest takeover? Mr. Romney has nothing to say because this is a good business practice to him. Unemployment will rise again in North Carolina. and other states where this is happening.

    October 28, 2012 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  6. Daddy tang

    Fight the power! Fight the gop! A return to Ws policies is wrong.

    October 28, 2012 07:47 pm at 7:47 pm |
  7. luke,az

    President Obama deserves four more years just for killing Osama Bin Laden during his administration, period.

    October 28, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  8. Ann Coulter is a blonde having a blonde experience

    My Man ...my man Obama!
    who is one with everything like the Dali Lama...
    He's a shrewed and surgical leader
    of which not many can compete yeah?
    why just ask the surviors of Gadaffi and Osama.

    October 28, 2012 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  9. pkrbkr

    Minnesota, you're smart......we know you'll do the right thing and vote Obama/Biden!

    October 28, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  10. Jack

    the Obama/Biden dog & pony show is coming to an end in Nov. !

    R O M N E Y / R Y A N 2 0 1 2 !!

    October 28, 2012 08:03 pm at 8:03 pm |
  11. UrAverageJoe

    Gotta agree with Mike in Texas. If Romney really thought he was going to win Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania, he put up ads and make stops there. My fear is that the hurricane disrupts voting in the Philadelphia area and swings the state to Romney when it wouldn't be otherwise . . .

    October 28, 2012 08:10 pm at 8:10 pm |
  12. Heather

    While Obama did well here in 2008 I don't think he was ever safe here in Mn. Remember that we tend to have republican governors and legislatures. We also have a very vocal and somewhat fanatical conservative right movement (ala Michelle Bachman). While I hope Zobama wins I think looking at Mn as a sure-yhing this year was a strategic error.

    October 28, 2012 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  13. Ed1

    Minn is so out of touch this doesn't surprise me a bit.

    Think about an WWE Champion for Gov really.

    October 28, 2012 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  14. kim

    Why would any one Vote for Romney "The Big Bush ?"

    October 28, 2012 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  15. William

    2 months until our Nation's failed social experiment comes to an end.
    Then Barry can go back to begging door to door for "change"

    October 28, 2012 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
  16. janelle

    Don't write MN off as a Democratic state. There are 2 MN's. The Twin Cities, very liberal, and outstate, far more conservative. It's about an even split population wise. I do see this race being very close in MN. MN does not have a quote, unquote Democratic Party. They have the DFL, which is Democrat Farmer Laborer party. Not as liberal as traditional state Democratic Parties. Many outstate DFL's do and have jumped ship and voted Republican when the Democratic policies get too liberal.

    October 28, 2012 08:42 pm at 8:42 pm |
  17. LIP

    absolutely amazing....and if Romney was ahead by that amount, CNN would be telling us it is within the margin of error.

    October 28, 2012 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  18. Larry L

    @Bill

    For the people that refer to the use of Republican "pixie dust" as the motivator for the results of the poll, all one has to do is to understand that the Star Tribune is the voice for the radical left of the Twin Cities.
    ------------------------------------------------
    Right-wingers always consider every media source to be liberal – especially if that source is anything but right-wing. Fox News is "Fair and balanced"... Right... The President is leading in Minnesota because people see Romney's flip-flopping on every issue, they hear his lies and see the fact checkers prove it, they know he gives us absolutely no specifics on his economic ideas, even when the math doesn't work. They don't trust anybody with no real solid values, who is a pathological liar, and who has a history of slimy deals with Bain Capital. They don't like being told that disabled veterans are a part of the 47% Romney considers "not worth worrying about". That's why Romney is losing Minnesota.

    October 28, 2012 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  19. LP

    That's pretty pathetic for a state that has gone Democratic for the last 40 years. That just proves that Romney is far superior than obama could ever be. Vote Romney!!

    October 28, 2012 09:01 pm at 9:01 pm |
  20. DuluthMN

    Obama comes from the world of hope and dreams and ideas, but hasn't shown any ability to translate those hopes, dreams, or ideas into reality. Romney comes from the world of not just translating ideas into reality, he's demonstrated considerable success in it. That fortune he made for himself shows it, so does how he turned the Salt Lake City Olympics around to be a success, and all the things he put in place as Massachusettes Governor. Obama says to believe in him because he'll keep trying (bound to get it right sooner or later). Romney says believe in him because he knows how to actually do what he's promising based on having done it so many times. Do the voters know the difference between words and reality? I bet people are smart enough to know who will deliver.

    October 28, 2012 09:03 pm at 9:03 pm |
  21. Facts don't Lie

    yeah and Obama is up on Romney by 2 in California..give me a break. The polls only matter when you pull the handle ..maybe since they are switching and changing it's time for the Democrats to start whining that they are skewed. I notice the right isn't saying that anymore for some reason.

    October 28, 2012 09:03 pm at 9:03 pm |
  22. M.McCain

    We need a President for the Corporation of the United States. Someone with the ability to know Checks & Balances. Someone Experienced Successful in Business & Bookkeeping.

    DO YOU KNOW OF SOMEONE WITH THE ABOVE DESCRIPTION RUNNING FOR OFFICE.

    October 28, 2012 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  23. Jean

    I live in MN and would love to see our Blue state turn Red, go ROMNEY!

    October 28, 2012 09:09 pm at 9:09 pm |
  24. Educated

    Wow. Obama was up 7% last week, now only 3%. Perhaps Minnesotans are wising up to the Obama debacle of the last 4 years. "If I don't cut the deficit in 1/2, I wll be a one term proposition." TIMES UP! you are done.

    October 28, 2012 09:16 pm at 9:16 pm |
  25. mike, Gardner, Ma.

    The president is comming to the rescue as the hurricane nears our shores. Too bad he didn't take a little time out of his busy schedule to come to the aid of 4 Americans before they were Murdered in Libya. And lets not forget the DEAD border agent in the "Fast and Furious" cover up. What a hypocrite ! Maybe if President Obama spent More time tending to the welfare of this great country than running around on every talk show promoting himself we would not be in the mess we are in ! !

    October 28, 2012 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6