Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
1 year ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. Omen

    The media really don't know how to report statistics. If a candidate is up by 3% or more in a poll this late in the race, that candidate is carrying the state. With 10 or fewer days to go, a 2% steady lead in the polls is considered safe, as one can discern by looking at outcomes from previous presidential elections. Obama is the favorite in Minnesota, he is the favorite in Ohio, and it looks like he still should be favored in Virginia. There isn't a whole lot of movement that goes on now, just efforts to get committed voters to the polls.

    October 28, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  2. Augie10

    Minnesota will stay solidly blue. This is wishful thinking on the part of the GOP. Just another scare tactic.

    October 28, 2012 09:33 pm at 9:33 pm |
  3. herbsouder@insightbb.com

    Bill you say the last four years have been disaster.What kind of economy do you think Obama started his presidency with?Under his presidency the stock market has turned around,unemployment is going down,and the economy is getting stronger.Do a little research on what Romney really did when he was at Bain.Google KB Toys and American Pad and Pen Co.See what he helped do to them.Romney is a Corporate Pirate and Ryan is downright scary even for halloween season.

    October 28, 2012 09:39 pm at 9:39 pm |
  4. shell517nj

    All I can say is, "Our President deserves a second term". Economist and Strategist report, the country is headed in the right direction, and the next President will reap the reward for work that was already done the past 4 years. Go FORWARD!

    October 28, 2012 09:48 pm at 9:48 pm |
  5. Jeff from Columbus

    Will the Democrats win Minnesota? Yes
    Is it troubling that a state like Minnesota is even in play? Yes

    This is what happened in 2008. When states like Indiana were suddenly in play, it was clear Obama was going to win decisively.

    I don't think Romney will win by NEARLY the margin Obama won in 2008. But, when states like Minnesota or Pennsylvania are even being discussed as battleground states, it spells bigtime trouble for Obama.

    October 28, 2012 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  6. Chloe

    As a resident of MN I will be voting for Obama and I hope this state stays blue. That said, I care a lot more about the marriage amendment vote and I will be voting NO!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 28, 2012 09:55 pm at 9:55 pm |
  7. Colby

    Las Vegas oddsmakers have,Obama with a 75 percent chance to win the election. So all the Repubs that are so sure the polls and media are skewed, put your money where your mouth it. Can't beat 3 to 1 return on your money if you are so sure.

    October 28, 2012 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm |
  8. Roger

    I love how the media tries to sell these one poll samples. Mason Dixon is a Republican leaning pollster. If they are showing Obama up +3 then the state is out of reach for Romney. Lets also just forget about the 30 other polls before this without Romney having a single lead. Same can go for Ohio as well. 3 newest polls (one Republican leaning) all showing Obama at 50% or higher. The truth is Obama has this in the bag...the media wants you to watch....so they distort these polls.

    October 28, 2012 10:16 pm at 10:16 pm |
  9. Charlie

    I think Romney and Obama are both decent family men who love this country. One of them will win. Only time will tell if either's policies will work out. I voted already. It will take weeks, maybe months, before I find out if I made the right choice.
    No one can predict the outcome or how either candidate will perform if elected. It would be foolhardy to try. There are too many unknowns.

    As I said I have voted. I voted for a candidate not against one.

    October 28, 2012 10:16 pm at 10:16 pm |
  10. Max

    If its a ploy and a strongly blue state, why would Obama's team feel the need to buy ads there too?? Just shows they know the momentum is completely with Mitt. Every poll shows the people trust Mitt more with fixing the economy...and that will determine this election. And the recent Benghazi revelations are killing the Presidents popularity. They know for a fact he's lied to them. And its looking more and more likely that our people died unnecessarily just so Obama's reelection chances wouldn't be hurt. Obama is a disgrace!

    October 28, 2012 10:27 pm at 10:27 pm |
  11. Gladys

    As a person born in the great state of Minnesota, the state that is the proud home of Hubert Humphrey, Paul Wellstone and Walter Mondale, all champions of the working class, the Democratic Farmer Labor party, Minnesota is a Democratic State and will be that way on November 6 2012. No thanks Repugs, we aren't buying this bs poll either!

    October 28, 2012 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |
  12. wilnel1984

    The was not a Star-Tribune poll. This was a poll COMMISSIONED by the Star-Tribune by Mason-Dixon polling. It's a quickie poll designed to drive up ad revenue.

    The Star-Tribune actually did a poll about 2-3 weeks ago that showed the President was up by 8. This was confirmed by a poll out on Thursday by St. Cloud State University (a university located in the heart of Michelle Bachmann country).

    I live in Minnesota and can tell you right now that Romney is much more than 3 points behind.

    October 28, 2012 10:39 pm at 10:39 pm |
  13. Paul Ernest Show

    It shows a disregard for values, which it's now apparent we as Americans do not have. We only pay lip services to it and imprison the least fortunate among us. Stereotype people based on colors to hide our own lack of morals and weaknesss

    October 28, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  14. Dennis

    Romney is only in play in the deepest fantasies of your mind because of the Super Pac ruling,the Koch Bros. and Sheldon Adelson.Romney wouldn't even be close in the running or the polls if not for them.He is merely the GOP candidate by default,not by choice.How about the radical extremist right?..Do you see any difference in their agenda,besides hate,lying,and deception?...Smart,informed voters do.

    October 28, 2012 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm |
  15. Crazy Harry

    They elected Bachmann!

    October 28, 2012 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm |
  16. Anonymous

    This polling seams fishy to me. Romney with out any plan, can not win the toss up states. Most articles I rean in this site looks baised to me. I believe the Romey campain is investing enough money in some of polling organizations.

    October 28, 2012 10:53 pm at 10:53 pm |
  17. ObaWendon

    I sure can't understand how smart people continue to stand by the GOP ticket with Romney (aka the changer) at the top. We don't know which Romney we would get, would it be the extreme conservative Tea Party guy, or the moving left a bit guy or this new middle moderate guy. I would think the Tea Party must be upset too since the current Romney is not even close to the same Romney they put on the presidential ticket. Besides the fact we don't know who we are getting with this multi faced man, but what does he really stand for and how is he really planning to get there? This "Trust me" line of his reminds me of a Snake Oil Salesman. Women, PLEASE, vote smart and protect your bodies. We also don't know what he has planned with abortion rights, he is for choice for women till he is against it. Then he has a plan to put more conservatives on the Supreme Court so they can over turn Roe V Wade, or he has no plan at this time. Where is this guy on issues and who the heck would we ACTUALLY be getting?

    October 28, 2012 10:54 pm at 10:54 pm |
  18. Paul

    How come Mitt Romney allowed companies eight years to turn around and become profitable before Harvasting, (those that he didn't break up and sell off the assets) yet President Obama only gets four years?

    October 28, 2012 11:07 pm at 11:07 pm |
  19. Former Minnesotan

    I was born in MN, graduated HS, and received my undergrad and Masters at Hamline. I know, enjoy, love MN politics. But I'm not sure why everybody thinks MN is a hard-core "blue" state.

    Until Dayton was elected Gov, the last DFLer elected was Gov Rudy Perpich (1988).
    Past recent US Senators include Repbulicans: Rudy Boschwitz, David Durenberger, Rod Grams and Norm Coleman.
    And of course, two Republican candidates for the 2012 Presidential election.

    Hopefully MN will vote Obama... but will it be surprising if it doesn't?

    October 28, 2012 11:21 pm at 11:21 pm |
  20. Larry L

    @Mike in Texas

    Romney only threw 30K into Minnesota. If Minnesota was truly in play, Romney would be visiting and spending more money.
    -------------------------------------------------Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, yet he's polling around 20% from people who have seen his performance as a leader. His portrayal of that role is like his entire campaign – wildly distorted and filled with lies. He took a state that was in good shape and drove it towards the toilet. Romney is Bush 2.0.

    October 28, 2012 11:23 pm at 11:23 pm |
  21. Linda

    I am shocked. The last GOP President Bush started 2 wars on lies which have now lasted 10 years. Bush is in hiding now. Now the GOPs give us another Presidental candidate who finds lying and flip flopping acceptable. People are voting for these people to run our country? Are they crazy? Are they actually watching his speeches on TV and listening to him as he flip flops? This is a disgrace.

    October 28, 2012 11:25 pm at 11:25 pm |
  22. el rob o

    This is not a surprise to most. The Libya cover-up is coming to light. 4 Americans could be alive today if this Administration responded quickly and no matter what Obama says, we remember what he said...

    "The events in Libya are the result of a video..." Obama thought we were idiots, but the TRUTH has caught up to him. Even the media can't stop the leaks!

    October 28, 2012 11:42 pm at 11:42 pm |
  23. Jen

    Well, they do have Michelle Bachman and they did vote in Jesse Ventura. Not the sharpest tools in the shed!
    (And I grew up there, so shut up!). The cold freezes people's brains....

    October 28, 2012 11:44 pm at 11:44 pm |
  24. el rob o

    Romney doesn't even campaign there and he's almost tied with Obama, the great liar.

    Al Qaeda was on attacking US embassies and the Administration lied to us about some video which it turns out had nothing to do with the attacks. The lies have finally caught up to Obama. He's done!

    October 28, 2012 11:46 pm at 11:46 pm |
  25. jim

    i really hope obama wins hes good.

    October 29, 2012 12:00 am at 12:00 am |
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