Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota
October 28th, 2012
02:44 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama up three points in Minnesota

(CNN) – A new poll Sunday of likely Minnesota voters indicates a close race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state long considered a safe bet for Democrats.

The Star Tribune survey, taken entirely after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with a three point advantage over Romney among likely Minnesota voters. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would back the president and 44% said they support Romney. Obama's advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 2% support of likely voters in the state.

Sunday's survey and a television ad buy by the Obama campaign to counter a new ad buy by Romney's campaign in Minnesota suggest a tightening race in a state that turned out overwhelmingly for then-Illinois Senator Obama in 2008 – 54% to Republican Sen. John McCain's 44%.

Republicans believe there is some movement in Minnesota toward the GOP while Democrats billed the ad buy as a ploy to generate buzz about a close race that does not exist.

A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error.

The Star Tribune poll indicates likely Minnesota voters believe Romney would better handle the economy. Forty-eight percent of the survey's respondents said the former Massachusetts governor would help to improve the economy. Forty-four percent said Obama would be better. Romney's advantage on the economy is within the survey's sampling error.

The Star Tribune survey also shows a large gender discrepancy between the candidates, aligned with a consistent national trend. Romney does better with men, 51% to Obama's 40%, in Sunday's Minnesota poll, while Obama does better than the Republican nominee with support among women, 53% to Romney's 37%.

The Star Tribune's poll was conducted by telephone from October 23-25 among 800 likely Minnesota voters. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Minnesota
soundoff (133 Responses)
  1. Luke

    Democrats = Socialists = Traitors

    October 29, 2012 12:22 am at 12:22 am |
  2. Lisa

    Economists and even CEO's think Obama has the best plan to keep the country moving forward? Why are people wasting votes on the lying team?

    October 29, 2012 12:37 am at 12:37 am |
  3. Jokers

    "A St. Cloud State University survey of likely Minnesota voters, taken from October 15-21 and released Friday, showed Obama with an eight point edge over Romney, 53% to Romney's 45%. Obama's advantage in the SCSU survey is within the poll's five point sampling error."

    First off CNN, why did you decide to bury a poll that shows PBO with an 8 point lead deep down in the story? And secondly, arithmetic shows that 53-45 = 8 pts, not "well within 5 point sampling error".

    I agree with the previous posters; the Republicans are trying to bluff themselves into a win on Nov 6th but it's just not working.

    October 29, 2012 12:52 am at 12:52 am |
  4. J.V.Hodgson

    So far as I know neithr Romney or ryan have gone to Minnesota in the last 3 weeks, now will they me thinks in the nex tdays to election date. Why?
    Because they will lose the state at least electoral college wise.
    Regards,
    Hodgson.

    October 29, 2012 12:56 am at 12:56 am |
  5. with held

    I would love to see a woman president but she would have to do more than resign for my vote. The thing is Obama is the president, but if anyone would have said to him you will act and save our people or I will make certain everyone knows the truth we wouldn't have four dead Americans. If he refused to provide additional security she should have resigned then or threatened to tell it. To me all the people involved in this cover up are guilty. Integrity is important and doing the right thing – that should come ahead of a party and lives certainly should. If Obama gave the order – and I think he did – to do nothing that should be told. Really the bottom line is no one had authority above him so he just sat there, watched and allowed those people to die with no effort to save them. I don't understand how anyone can defend that, or vote for him after this. The man is lacking I believe he is convinced that he is the only person who matters.

    October 29, 2012 01:09 am at 1:09 am |
  6. CTSadler

    Kinda like when CNN called the last debate a "tie." They're just afraid not to be seen as biased to they skew rightwing these days...

    October 29, 2012 01:25 am at 1:25 am |
  7. Harry

    What is the POTUS's plan? As he said earlier, when you cannot run on you record, you make the election about small things. Big Bird, Binders, and Bayonets are not going to end our world. The weak economy will. As am disillusioned Obama supporter, I am ready to try something different.

    October 29, 2012 01:26 am at 1:26 am |
  8. Thomas

    @Deez
    I've never seen a company hire based purely off money in the bank. If people aren't buying their product or service enough to necessitate expanding their staff, why hire? What causes people to buy more products? Money in the PEOPLE'S pockets, not corporations pockets. Companies do not print money. They get their income from people buying their product. The power should always be given to the people, including which companies survive or go out of business based on the people buying or not buying a company's product. This helps ensure quality products, which is the way Capitalism is supposed to work. Staying in business based on free money from the government from tax cuts and subsidies (corporate welfare) is not a quality foundation, which is Romney's plan.

    Didn't GW Bush say the same thing in another time ?

    October 29, 2012 01:29 am at 1:29 am |
  9. freethinkr

    If you are one of the 50 million Americans who has received Medicaid and you vote for Romney you are a moron. Kiss medicaid good bye. And go bankrupt paying for your health bills.

    Do you know how many Americans go bankrupt every year because of medical bills? Over 1 million people every year. Do you know how many people go bankrupt because of medical bills in Canada, Italy, Germany, France, Denmark, England and all other first world countries combined? Zero. That is a moral failure.

    October 29, 2012 02:16 am at 2:16 am |
  10. Lynette

    Romney is polling behind in most battleground states. Sandy is upon us, and now folks turn away to the weather. Obama has won this thing! Good!

    October 29, 2012 03:14 am at 3:14 am |
  11. tim

    Yeah...Mason-Dixon agency is extremely accurate actually. They were the most accurate state by state polling agency in 2008, with 15/16 states called correctly. Throw in a well under 50% number for Obama, and, while not likely, Minnesota is certainly in play for Romney.

    I dont think people undestand the true partisan turnout bias in many of these polls, such as the few polls showing an Ohio lead for Obama. I think many people on the left will be surprised come election day.

    October 29, 2012 03:14 am at 3:14 am |
  12. old owl

    Economy is on the road to recovery and I hope that the flip flopping venture capitalist who created wealth for the share holders, who is trying to fool the voters that he ran a business and created jobs, who was described by John Huntsmen as a well greased weather vane, who was hated by the fellow republicans who were competing with him, from whose mouth lies pour out like waterfalls will not win and claim the fruits of Obama's labor. This is my fervent prayer.

    October 29, 2012 03:17 am at 3:17 am |
  13. nelson

    I believe voters will look at how grave the crisis was in 2008 when President Obama took over. Bailout was the only option. Even Bush started the bailout after realising the mess he had caused the country. Austerity has failed in Europe.
    Of course bailout ment borrowing money and hence the current deficit of 16trillion!
    When Romney says obama policies has not done enough, does he mean to say obama should have bailed more companies? then what whould have happened to the inceasing deficit which romney says is so high?
    Romney has said he will balance the budget,by lowering taxes for every americans and not specifying how such loss of revenues will be paid for. eliminating some social services will ammount to some form of austerity measures that have failed in europe.ie the purchasing power will go down andf the economy will go back on its knees.
    By now America must have realised that obama policy on the economy is working.To turn such abig bad economy in just four years and it begins showing growth again is miraclous.
    The grow would have been even more had the congress not blocked every initiative the president was persuing to make the economy grow. Image the congress who came in 2010 with only one objective,not to make the economy grow, but to remove Obama from the presidency. Reasons best known to them becuase I am sure no sane person would have expected the sick economy inherited from Bush to begin growing by 2010!
    Part of voting for growth of the economy is actually to elect resposible members of congress and senate. The president policies are already working , he needs support, not obstruction.
    Wish America the best and may Obama win and continues with growth of the economy, because I think America deserves to be a head of China forever, and that can only happen if the economy is strong. In the global economy power of economy is about economy. You cannot sustain a war without strong economy.

    October 29, 2012 03:32 am at 3:32 am |
  14. billtwo

    As the liberals scramble, common sense is sweeping the country. Even illinois is going to be close. People are done with this muslim, lying, money wasting community organizer..LANDSLIDE ON THE 6th..Wait and see.

    October 29, 2012 04:05 am at 4:05 am |
  15. Dar

    Other than raising the taxes on the 1%ers, (do people really think that that is going to help?) What else does Obama have to run on? His last four years of sinking the debt? look at Europe, look at what happens when you borrow to much.

    If the 1%ers make less, you lose jobs. They are use to making do much profit to pay for peoples incomes and expansion.

    Less income= Less jobs (That is you in case you didn't know that)

    Less Profit= Less expansion (Again, That is you again)

    You dont get a job is less taxes for the goverment to get = More debt (that is you paying later in years to come)

    Think of it like this, If your subdivision wanted you to pay for most of the home owners assosiations fees because you were lucky enough to make more money than everyone else there, How would you feel? Screwed?

    Or would you simply move away and let everyone fend for them self?

    Better save your money if you vote for Obama people, get real and wake up.

    October 29, 2012 04:08 am at 4:08 am |
  16. Cash

    I only believe polls that show my candidate winning!

    October 29, 2012 04:52 am at 4:52 am |
  17. commonvoiceoo1

    Please explain to me why the rest of the world see the presidential race so different than America. I just returned from the Asian Pacific and other countries. Every newspaper I read was pro Obama. Some heads of states are breaking protocol in voicing their opinion on this election....Obama is the right man for ALL America. I have one Question... Have there ever been a time in history...Qing Dynasty; Rome; Egypt; Persian Empire and others where a Head Political figure made a declaration that his job was to make the King; Emperor; Prime Minister or President a One term; ineffective; defeated or destroyed? What would have happened to the bearer of those words? Mitch McConnall is the bearer. According to Preibus... perhaps this was the first of many of the small fires of the republicans. America should be inflamed about the total disrespect for this President. All because he's a person of color? A house divided cannot ....?

    October 29, 2012 06:16 am at 6:16 am |
  18. BeQuiet

    Ha Ha, Want a big government. Why don't you emigrant to China. Vote for Romney will make the country back to track.

    October 29, 2012 07:16 am at 7:16 am |
  19. Gabbo

    The avalanche has started, and is just now starting to roar – ROMNEY by a landslide ! LOL CNN ECHO CHAMBER !

    October 29, 2012 08:20 am at 8:20 am |
  20. Chris

    Chris in NY

    This is an out liar. If President Obama is leading by 3points in Minnesota why is Backman in the toughest election of her political life? The media will milk this malaise among voters to the last drop. May be if they hype things a little bit people will actually begin to believe this report.

    To a Chris in NY from a Chris in MN. I live in Bachmann's district. It is not close. I can count 10 Bachmann signs for every one Graves sign on every block. It will not be close. I have also yet to see an Obama yard sign and very few bumper stickers. Obama has no momentum in MN, and everything to lose. Will be close this cycle.

    October 29, 2012 08:34 am at 8:34 am |
  21. ronvan

    DARKNESSCROWN: Your comment on "popular vs electoral" vote is RIGHT ON!! in reality our votes really do not mean much. Shamefull!! IF WE want a true, meaningfull, election they should do away with the electoral vote and let OUR vote count!!!

    October 29, 2012 08:37 am at 8:37 am |
  22. Brian

    Come on Minnesota, don't fall for the snake oil Romney's selling. America can't afford another Republican in the White House, things are finally getting fixed now

    October 29, 2012 08:39 am at 8:39 am |
  23. UBS, WILLARD & THE 4000+ AMERICAN AMNESTY DEAL

    Michelle Bachmann is on the ticket in Minnesota. Enough said. Straight Democrat ticket.

    October 29, 2012 08:41 am at 8:41 am |
  24. Yes we can move Forward past @ Luke

    @Luke (Backward) = Too sensitive = You need a hug.

    You're fact-twisting and misinformation is precisely why we need to move Forward, away from ignorance.

    October 29, 2012 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  25. Lynda/Minnesota

    If Romney is putting his bets on winning Minnesota ... Romney is in really, really big trouble.

    October 29, 2012 08:57 am at 8:57 am |
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