Polls break down presidential race in Florida
October 28th, 2012
12:28 PM ET
1 year ago

Polls break down presidential race in Florida

(CNN) – Two new polls released Sunday break down the state of the presidential race in Florida, whose 29 electoral votes are being fiercely contested in the final days of the campaign.

The surveys indicated GOP nominee Mitt Romney ahead along the central I-4 corridor, while President Barack Obama is ahead in Miami Dade County, the state's largest.

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The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll surveyed likely voters along Interstate 4 in the Sunshine State, which stretches from Tampa, on the Gulf coast, to Daytona Beach, on the Atlantic coast. That section of the state has swung for both Democrats and Republicans in the past, and straddles the reliably red panhandle in the north, and the more blue sections of South Florida.

The poll showed Romney at 51% among likely voters along the stretch, compared to 45% who support Obama. Four percent remained undecided. That result was within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Romney led among independents 49%-41%, and among men by a sixteen point margin. While Obama led among women, it was not by as large a margin as other polls have shown in different parts of the country. Fifty percent of women along the I-4 corridor support Obama, compared to 46% who support Romney.

Broken down, the poll showed divisions among voters along the stretch – Romney was leading among white voters, while Obama led among African-Americans and Hispanics, who accounted for 20% of the total number of voters in the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll.

Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon polling that conducted the survey, told the Tampa Bay Times the results showed Florida solidly in Romney's column.

"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," Coker said. "Unless something dramatically changes – an October surprise, a major gaffe – Romney's going to win Florida."

A second survey from the Miami Herald showed Obama leading Romney 52%-43% in Miami Dade County, which is Florida's largest. That lead is smaller than the sixteen point margin Obama won the county by in 2008, but is just outside the sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Among men in Miami Dade, both Obama and Romney were at 47%, but among women Obama held a large advantage, leading his rival 56%-40%.

A big majority of Hispanics – 62% - went for Romney in the survey, a result of the large population of traditionally conservative Cuban-Americans in the region. Broken down, 76% of Cuban-Americans were behind Romney, while 56% of non-Cuban Hispanics said they would vote for Obama.

Both the I-4 Corridor survey and the Miami Dade County poll were conducted by Mason Dixon polling group, which is based in Jacksonville, Florida. The dates of the polls were also the same – October 22-24, meaning there were two days of polling completely after the final presidential debate.

The Miami Herald survey was conducted by telephone in both English and Spanish from 625 likely voters in Miami-Dade County. The sampling error was plus or minus four percentage points.

The I-4 Corridor survey was also from 625 likely voters, and the sampling error was the same.

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Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (22 Responses)
  1. Rick McDaniel

    Obama is a disaster.

    Time for ANYONE other than Obama.

    October 28, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  2. BillFromOhio

    I love it! Hispanics for Romney! These people must want a free government ride back where they came from!

    October 28, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  3. Dan Schaefer

    The evidence shows that notwithstanding his denial, President Obama has in fact apologized for America and done so repeatedly.

    At the last debate he claimed: "Nothing Governor Romney just said is true, starting with this notion of me apologizing."

    But here is the record:

    1) In Cairo in June, 2009, he asserted that after 9/11, America "acted contrary to our ideals" by using torture-which slandered our own country and our defenders. (Michael Goodwin, NY Post, 9/16/12, p. 9).

    2) In the same speech he also suggested American anti-Moslem bigotry, stating: "We cannot disguise hostility towards any religion behind the pretence of liberalism." This was another slander, while at the same time not mentioning the slaughter of Christians in Arab lands. (Michael Goodwin, NY Post, 9/16/12, p. 9).

    3) In Trinidad and Tobago in April, 2009, he stated: "We have at times been disengaged, and at times we sought to dictate our terms." (Kimberly A. Strassel, Wall St. Journal, 10/26/12, p. A11).

    4) In April, 2009, in France, he claimed "there have been times when America has shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive." (Kimberly A. Strassel, Wall St. Journal, 10/26/12, p. A11).

    Thus he has in fact apologized for America, which could embolden our enemises.

    Second, in denying "this notion of me apologizing," he has not told the truth. How can we believe him on anything else?

    October 28, 2012 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  4. nina

    i have a question...if the election is november 6th....and likely the news pundits will name a president...i heard on meet the press this morning that the absentee ballots are not counted until november 16th....has that always been the case and if so.....how is the election gonna be called this year with the election so close.
    Do the absentee ballots not count?

    October 28, 2012 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  5. carlos

    I voted yesterday in Dade County, FL....80% for President Obama

    October 28, 2012 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  6. Armand Winter

    Recently admitted to Augusta, Darla Moore and Bush were part owners in the Texas Rangers. Darla Moore was credited with removing current Florida Governor, Rick Scott as CEO of HCA because Darla's husband owned HCA.

    Scott left the 7th largest employer in the US with a golden parachute worth $500 million. Then Bain came in and cleaned up the mess after the 14 felonies and $650 million in fines.

    Why wasn't Rick Scott ever convicted of MedicAid and Medicare fraud?

    All the money grubers of the GOP want to be heir apparent to the Bush crime family especially Romney. Romney has been in on it all this time.

    October 28, 2012 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  7. Paulcat

    Hispanics, if Romney win, I hope you have your boat ready. Hurricane or not.

    October 28, 2012 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  8. Anonymous

    I am not sure how any American not in the 1% population can vote for any Republican. After years of trickle down economics from Reagan and George W., we see that tax cuts for the wealthy do not lead to middle class success and job creation. In fact, their policies have created recessions for the country. When Republicans openly state that they support these policies and cutting healthcare and social security, Americans should be very afraid of what will happen with a Republican president in office. If it wasn't so scary, I'd laugh when I see less well of people driving around in beat up cars with bumper stickers knocking "Obamacare". While we still have a long way to go in perfecting a national healthcare plan, "Obamacare" is a first step in the right direction......one that he had to fight Republicans on. This country needs policies to break up monopolies and too big to fail banks and corporations. It needs policies to protect small business, as opposed to continuing policy that favors keeping the rich getting richer. While I really wish Obama was tougher on righting all the failed policies and lack of regulation on banks, corporations, and wall street, voting for Romney is a step backwards for the country. Wake up America!

    October 28, 2012 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  9. BABAK

    it is economy!

    October 28, 2012 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  10. Marty, FL

    Tampa Bay Times reporting record turnout in early FL voting looks good for President Obama.

    The people actually vote, not polls. GOTV

    October 28, 2012 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  11. Satberry

    The poll sample is too small and therefore the error of the poll is larger.The turnout will be high and that does not bode well for Willard.I stood in line for three hours on saturday.

    October 28, 2012 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  12. Chipster

    Republicans plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program that will "wither on the vine," as Newt Gingrich once bragged. They will "privatize" Social Security which means pulling money out of the system for younger workers to invest privately. This will cause Social Security to collapse because their will not be adequate funding for it. How successful the investments for younger workers will be depends on whether they decide to participate, how they invest their funds, and how many crashes the market experiences. Without a safety net, there will eventually be many seniors who can no longer work but have no retirement funds. I just hope voters fully understand what they are voting to do. What will we do with all the seniors who cannot work and have no retirement funds?

    October 28, 2012 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  13. Gurgyl

    Florida, just vote for OBAMA. Mitt the twit bans your SS, MEDICARE. Yes, on Obama12.

    October 28, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  14. Dan Schaefer

    President Obama's hometown Jewish newspaper, the Chicago Jewish Star, an independent publication, in an editorial has endorsed Governor Romney over President Obama.

    The Star refers to the threat of Islamic terror, a depressed and failing economy, an unsure future for troubled health care, a genocidal-spewing Iran as well as an unbalanced Middle East.

    The Star cites Governor Romney's executive experience, proven ability to deal with opposing views, postive outlook and quiet but admirable religious and charitable persona as the candidate who can best guide our country in the years ahead.

    The Star states that not only does Mr. Obama deserve to be a one-term proposition, but also that Mr. Romney is "simply the better bet for our country."

    The Chicago Jewish Star further states: "We like Mr. Romney because he is able to travel to a hot-bed area like Israel and–openly, unapologetically, and accurately–commend the Jewish state for its achievements, while frankly acknowledging that it is Palestinian recalcitrance which has denied peace to the area."

    Finally, the Chicago Jewish Star states that it likes Mr. Romney because he and his running mate have announced "they belive in accountability. The buck stops in the Oval Office."

    October 28, 2012 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  15. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    If Romney loses Florida, he would be hard pressed to make up the lost electoral college votes. I think that it is too close to call at this point. Romney could still win Florida, Ohio and Virginia and still lose the race.

    October 28, 2012 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  16. Syed M Karim

    President OBAMA will WIN " OHIO" + NV,IA,NH,MN,MI,PA, + SOME of CO,VA,NC & if NOT FL' for sure. What will give President OBAMA way Over " MAGIC 270 " ( 277 to 290 Electorate ) to WIN on Nov 6,2012 .
    I have Serious Doubt Gov.Romney can WIN with " LOSS in OHIO" ---–What will be END of Romney/Ryan Story.
    Mitt Romney Might WIN "Popular Vote" but will LOOSE to President OBAMA on ELECTORAL VOTE ,what select
    the WINER of PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION on NOV 6.-Where OBAMA will Most Probably WIN

    October 28, 2012 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  17. Eugene9

    One poll. Not taking into account the Obama lead in early voting. "Barring a gaffe from Romney".....let me count the ways. The lie about Chrysler moving Jeep factory to China two days ago, the Mourdock issue unanswered, the promise today to do better by auto workers than Obama......the gifts that keep on giving.

    October 28, 2012 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  18. Eugene9

    Do you guys realize how unreliable and right-leaning Mason-Dixon is? They called Ohio for McCain in 2008.....were ONLY 7 points off. But if this gives more incentive to the Democrats, it's just as well. OBAMA-BIDEN GOTV

    October 28, 2012 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  19. Ron L- Mich

    How can anyone support Mr. Romney??? Talk about a complete lack of character and spine this man has shown...
    Where shall I begin:
    He first supported a womens right to chose – then became a severe conservative Pro Life person
    He believed the car industry should be allowed to go bankrupt using the private sector (that is in a panic at the time) to guarantee loans. This would have not happen and there would be no GM, no Chrysler, and about 1,000,0000 fewer jobs,
    He says he is going to cut tax rates 20% across the board and restructure the tax system making sure the rich pay no more than they pay today which equates to the eliminaton of deductions that benefit the middle class.
    He claims he has been successful in business and knows how to turn this economy around – when Bain bought a company and could not turn it around they sold it,kept all the money to themselves and fired the employees with no severence pay, or insurance!!! So, how does that relate to running the government?
    He was a successful Governor able to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats – He is losing in the polls to President Obama by 30+ points in that state and signed over 600 vetoes at that time!!!
    He is going to increase spending on the military – at the same time he is going to cut the deficit
    He is going to cut the deficit – If you read his plan it does not address the deficit until he wins a 2nd term!!
    He clearly stated he believed 47% of the American public do not take responsibilty for their lives and are government dependent!!
    I could go on but I think you get my point... How can ANYONE believe a word he says!!!
    I DON"T, he is one of the most AMORAL politicians I have seen in my lifetime and will say anything to win!!
    He lacks the CHARACTER to be the President of the United States

    October 28, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  20. Jef Wallace

    You fools are going to let Newt Gingrich in as Secretary of State ?!? Attorney General RICK SANTORUM !?!? You Florida Romney supporters are greedy job wanters who are begging for Romneyjobs. You are the socialists begging the government to make jobs for you. Pathetic to see anyone not 1% voting for the Bain complex. Poor Florida, how do you continue to fail to think like this ???

    October 28, 2012 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  21. Mark

    Cubans voting Republican. That's like Gays and Women voting for Republicans, it just cracks me up.

    October 28, 2012 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  22. Mark

    A Hispanic voting Republican is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.

    October 28, 2012 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |