CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida
October 29th, 2012
01:29 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida

(CNN) – With eight days to go until Election Day, a new survey indicates an extremely close race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are backing Republican nominee Mitt Romney, with 49% supporting President Barack Obama. The former Massachusetts governor's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

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"The results are unchanged from a one-point margin for Romney in mid-October, except for each candidate gaining a percentage point and the number of truly undecided voters dwindling away to almost nothing," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The survey indicates that there is a slightly larger pool of persuadable voters, often called "uncommitted voters" in this election cycle.

"Roughly five percent of Florida's likely voters say they are truly undecided or have a preference but have not completely made up their minds. Those are the voters in whose hands rests the outcome in the Sunshine State - and possibly the national outcome as well," adds Holland.

According to the poll, a large gender gap has re-opened in Florida, with 55% of men supporting Romney and 54% of women favoring Obama. Generational and income gaps appear as well, with Obama doing better among younger and lower-income voters and Romney ahead among those 50 and older and among those making more than $50,000 per year.

President George W. Bush won Florida in his 2004 re-election, but Obama narrowly captured the state in his 2008 victory over Sen. John McCain. This cycle Florida has once again been getting tons of attention during the general election, with the candidates making frequent visits to the Sunshine State. Romney held three rallies in the state on Saturday. The president was scheduled to headline a rally Monday morning in Orlando, but instead returned to Washington, D.C. to monitor federal emergency preparations for Hurricane Sandy.

The Obama and Romney campaigns are also spending big bucks on get-out-the-vote efforts and to run television commercials in the state. The two presidential campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups supporting the candidates, have shelled out more than $130 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Florida since April 10, the unofficial start of the general election. That's according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising.

Political junkies will recall that Ralph Nader's minor-party candidacy in 2000 is widely credited with taking enough votes from Al Gore to allow George W. Bush to eventually claim the state. Could that happen again this year?

It's tough to tell, but it is intriguing to note that when three minor party candidates are included in a separate horse race question, a 50%-49% margin for Romney becomes a 48%-48% tie, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green party candidate Jill Stein claiming one percent apiece and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode coming in with less than one-half of one percent.

"Statistically, there is no difference between 50%-to-49% and 48%-to-48%, but it does illustrate the potential effect of the minor-party candidates in this extremely close race," adds Holland, who also warns that "close elections are inherently unpredictable - and elections in which a single percentage point separates the two candidates are even tougher, if not impossible, to forecast."

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, from October 25-28 (entirely after the final presidential debate), with 1,010 adults, including 914 registered voters and 770 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Florida • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (88 Responses)
  1. ctguy

    A cnn Poll is just a poll for Obama. Rasmussen is the only one to trust. Landslide Mitt!

    October 29, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  2. Poll Data

    If it is anywhere close, if you factor in cellphone only households (which pollsters CLAIM to represent but really don't), the numbers swing way more to Obama.

    Which is fine by me. :)

    October 29, 2012 02:51 pm at 2:51 pm |
  3. clarke

    I am not a poll kinda person

    October 29, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  4. Andrew

    This is quite significant because if Obama wins Florida, it's going to be really bad for Romney. He would have to win every other swing state. If Romney loses Florida, his chances of winning the are negligible.

    October 29, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  5. Orchid333

    As a rule I just can't believe in any of the polls. Anybody remember what the polls showed back in '08? They showed neck-and-neck between Obama and McCain, but come election day Obama was called as the winner within an hour of the polls closing - it wasn't even close! All of these polls are simply meant to keep people coming back to these so-called news organizations. If the real numbers showed a complete blow-out for one candidate or another, then guess what? We wouldn't be glued to our TV's, computers and smart phones waiting to see if "our guy" is winning.

    As with the last election, I firmly believe this one will be another blowout. I can't honestly believe half the country takes Mitt Romney this seriously – he's a flip-flopping nutcase who's only position is the one his advisers tell him to take at that particular moment. I would be seriously scared if that guy made it into the white house.

    October 29, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  6. Jorge

    This poll does not capture the 18 – 23 year olds that only use cell phones. My son is 19, he and all of his college classmate are voting OBAMA. The numbers are probably 4-5 points higher on the OBAMA side.

    October 29, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  7. Daddy tang

    Fight the power fight the gop. Dont give us another Bush Florida!

    October 29, 2012 02:55 pm at 2:55 pm |
  8. bigbluenationdb

    It going to be a landslide on election day. The administration has lied and the Benghazi thing is killing Obama. Everyone in the administration that had something to do with this LIED to people. It is going to be the downfall of the current administration. To try and blame something of this significance on a Youtube video and expect Americans to believe was a slap in our face. Maybe the people being promised more welfare and Obamaphones believe it but intelligent smart Americans (Dems, Repubs and Independents) all know it is a lie.

    October 29, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  9. Richard

    I'z sick of ads, and sick of polls...wish it was November 7th...and how many undecided voters can still be out there?!? People that can't make up their mind in this clear cut race, are, well, I better not use the R-word.

    October 29, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  10. Christian

    el rob o -no one is saying that that he saying that. We are saying that there is inconsistency in the thinking of religious people who would make one statement, and deny the other. Religious people who say that it is God's will when a raped woman gets pregnant are implying, by their poor reasoning, that God allowed the rape. It is likely, of course, that god had nothing to do with either, and that the woman should be allowed to decide what to do, based on her own feelings about the situation, not Murdochs or yours

    October 29, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  11. lovespandas

    Especially after the Benghazi cover up by this adminstration, how can anyone vote for him? Seriously? Daddy Tang – I can only guess what you are so you'll vote for Obama regardless.

    October 29, 2012 02:59 pm at 2:59 pm |
  12. Joe

    Orchid333 ... go here and tell me what you think might be wrong with your choice. saynoin2012 com

    October 29, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  13. Jesus Christ Superstar

    Well, since you had 3 times as many lanlines as cellphones in this survey, it's kinda hard for you to take an accurate sample. But whatever helps you sleep at night, CNN. When Obama wins, it'll hurt

    October 29, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
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