CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida
October 29th, 2012
01:29 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida

(CNN) – With eight days to go until Election Day, a new survey indicates an extremely close race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are backing Republican nominee Mitt Romney, with 49% supporting President Barack Obama. The former Massachusetts governor's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

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"The results are unchanged from a one-point margin for Romney in mid-October, except for each candidate gaining a percentage point and the number of truly undecided voters dwindling away to almost nothing," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The survey indicates that there is a slightly larger pool of persuadable voters, often called "uncommitted voters" in this election cycle.

"Roughly five percent of Florida's likely voters say they are truly undecided or have a preference but have not completely made up their minds. Those are the voters in whose hands rests the outcome in the Sunshine State - and possibly the national outcome as well," adds Holland.

According to the poll, a large gender gap has re-opened in Florida, with 55% of men supporting Romney and 54% of women favoring Obama. Generational and income gaps appear as well, with Obama doing better among younger and lower-income voters and Romney ahead among those 50 and older and among those making more than $50,000 per year.

President George W. Bush won Florida in his 2004 re-election, but Obama narrowly captured the state in his 2008 victory over Sen. John McCain. This cycle Florida has once again been getting tons of attention during the general election, with the candidates making frequent visits to the Sunshine State. Romney held three rallies in the state on Saturday. The president was scheduled to headline a rally Monday morning in Orlando, but instead returned to Washington, D.C. to monitor federal emergency preparations for Hurricane Sandy.

The Obama and Romney campaigns are also spending big bucks on get-out-the-vote efforts and to run television commercials in the state. The two presidential campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups supporting the candidates, have shelled out more than $130 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Florida since April 10, the unofficial start of the general election. That's according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising.

Political junkies will recall that Ralph Nader's minor-party candidacy in 2000 is widely credited with taking enough votes from Al Gore to allow George W. Bush to eventually claim the state. Could that happen again this year?

It's tough to tell, but it is intriguing to note that when three minor party candidates are included in a separate horse race question, a 50%-49% margin for Romney becomes a 48%-48% tie, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green party candidate Jill Stein claiming one percent apiece and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode coming in with less than one-half of one percent.

"Statistically, there is no difference between 50%-to-49% and 48%-to-48%, but it does illustrate the potential effect of the minor-party candidates in this extremely close race," adds Holland, who also warns that "close elections are inherently unpredictable - and elections in which a single percentage point separates the two candidates are even tougher, if not impossible, to forecast."

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, from October 25-28 (entirely after the final presidential debate), with 1,010 adults, including 914 registered voters and 770 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Florida • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (88 Responses)
  1. Dave Jaipersaud

    The Republican idea to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. I am sure they would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out most Americans life savings. Basically that is what the Republicans are proposing. They are saying lets fire the guy that stabilized your investments and grow it to almost what it was prior to 2007 and let’s rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. Do they think most Americans are stupid?

    Here is the real hoax. The Republican idea to make things better is to do the same things that caused the problem. Here is something to think about. Republicans would have no problem rehiring a financial advisor whose investment policies almost wiped out their life savings. Basically that is what they are proposing. Republicans are telling us to fire the guy that stabilized and grow our investments to almost what it was worth prior to 2007 and rehire the guy whose policies almost wiped it out. We have to be really stupid to listen to them and rehire a guy whose policies wiped out investment in the first place. I would hope that Americans are smarter than that.

    Here is a simple way of looking at who is best for the economy. Would you invest with a guy whose investment policies wiped out your investment portfolio or would you invest with a guy whose investment policies stabilized your investment portfolio and is currently growing your portfolio. Even Romney wouldn't invest his own money with the guy whose policies wiped out everyone’s investment and now he wants us to do it. So why would anyone even consider voting for any Republican.

    How can any Americans think that Romney/Ryan policies would be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. Have people forgotten what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. Are we that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America (this great Nation) to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    October 29, 2012 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  2. Robert

    Not to worry Obama fans. The Democrats in Palm Beach Country are gearing up even as we speak, to find and count every single dimpled, scratched and hanging chad to insure that they steal the election for their boy.

    October 29, 2012 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  3. mikey

    Romneis up 12 points in florida. Obama started pulling out last week.

    October 29, 2012 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  4. Anon 2012

    It would be great if CNN published the RV numbers or a link to the full .pdf of their poll numbers. The last poll had the same exact LV numbers but the president ahead +7 among RV in FL.

    October 29, 2012 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  5. Dave Jaipersaud

    Do not fall for the crap Romney and the Republicans are selling. They will lie, cheat and steal to get into the White House. It doesn’t matter how Romney and the Republican try to spin their policies, the American people know how disastrous those policies have been for this country, especially for the Middle Class and less fortunate.
    Americans are not stupid. How can anyone even thing Romney’s policies will be better for this country. Romney and the Republicans policies from 2001 to 2008 brought this great nation to its knees, their policies caused the Great Recession, their policies wiped out almost 10,000,000 jobs as a direct result of the Great Recession, their policies wiped out retirement savings for tens of millions of Americans as a direct result to the Great Recession, their policies took a $1 trillion surplus to a $13 trillion deficit, their policies resulted in the decline in the percentage of Americans that are in the middle class, their policies resulted in tens of millions of Americans without healthcare, their policies resulted in millions of Americans losing their homes, their policies will be detrimental to Latinos and all other minorities, their policies will result in another war in the Middle East, and the list goes on.

    No Americans in their right mind will believe that Romney/Ryan policies will be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. People will remember what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. We are not that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America (this great Nation) to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    October 29, 2012 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  6. PartOf

    Florida is trending for Romney, but I have to tell you that what goes on in Florida is always a bit questionable. As a Floridian to renew my license was an ordeal. After living her for 20 years, and born in NY, I brought two residential bills, birth certificate, ss#,and had my drivers license, I was married and divorced in Florida and they sent me home for more verification. I came back with my passport, and after an 1.5 hour session at the Sarasota Motor Vehicle Department they asked me if I wanted to change my party affiliation. I told them they really were trying to suppress the vote, and the staffer just smiled.

    October 29, 2012 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  7. truth hurts

    S.B. Stein E.B. NJ
    It would be really funny if Gary Johnson won enough that might have gone to Romney that Obama wins FL
    =============================================================================
    Dope smokers that want it legalized vote for Johnson. And all those green voters? Those are DEMOCRATS!

    October 29, 2012 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  8. Jessie P.

    I have 5 friends in two swing states that have been on the fence about this race. Two of them have extremely large families. They wanted to see if Mitt Romney would stop campaigning like the Preisdent due to Hurricane Sandy, but have now found out he is continuing to campaign, and only called the "Republican Governors" ............ no one else. Also he has a new ad that has nothing but lies about the auto industry in some of the swing states. That being said, my friends are no longer on the fence and they now will be voting for President Obama since Mitt Romney has now shown he does not care about the people impacted by the storm, etc.

    October 29, 2012 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  9. cgwolfeman

    anyone dumb enough to think that the economic situation of the last four years is obama's fault should have their voting rights rescinded. do none of you people recall that BUSH was the one who erased the budget surplus and got us into two unnecssary wars???? those are the reasons for the recession. obama could have accomplished a lot more towards building a recovery, but congressional Republicans said, just after the 2008 election, that they would focus solely on making barack a one term president. to accomplish that, they filibustered nearly 90% of all the bills paased by the democrats to try to make obama look like he hasnt done anything to help us. it sure would be a refreshing change for once if conservative voters would actually analyze the facts, not their hearts.

    October 29, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  10. Bob

    Romney is up in Ohio by two points, according to Rasmussen. Yes!

    October 29, 2012 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  11. Don

    Could be good news fo rthe President if it's accurate. The GOTV and and early voting excitement and turnout may be enough to tip this state back blue where it should be.

    October 29, 2012 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  12. Mittens Rmoney

    Rich old white men continue to support me, whatever my position is. If I am president, rich white men will continue to get richer.

    October 29, 2012 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  13. Jonathen

    The polls mean nothing. The way the polls are conducted, agencies call and flip-flop their wording around, and if they are lucky, people will stay on the phone and answer.

    What are the results:

    Maybe 10,000 calls made and 1000 people answer the questions. Half of them don't know what they're answering due to the way the questions are worded, the other half could care less and want to get them off the phone.

    What matters in the end, the electoral map, and they all tell the same story and project the same thing.

    October 29, 2012 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  14. Aggie

    Really? CCN oversamples Democrats? After the last report, several reporters and experts, both from CNN and elsewhere, made a point of saying that typically CNN polls are more weighted in favor of Republicans. by about 8%

    October 29, 2012 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  15. SoSad

    To CNN Polling Director Keating Holland, the outcome of the race in florida will determine the Presidential race, Ohio will, Obama leading by 4 in Ohio. Sorry..............................

    October 29, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  16. Cort

    Funny you should say that Jeff since "the intelligent half" as you say, that is, the half of us that live on the west coast and northeast are far more supportive of Obama. By the way, by any indicator you chose, the last 4 years have been successful given the mess that Bush left us with. Count 4 years up from the Great Depression...that gets you to 1933. Can you imagine if we had gotten rid of FDR in favor of another Hoover Republican? Fortunately our smarter half had the good sense to re-elect him. So you don't like the abortion issue? I don't blame you – it makes your party look like they are from the 1950's or the Louisiana backwoods swamp.

    October 29, 2012 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  17. SDG

    I'll be casting my vote in Florida today! Obama 2012

    October 29, 2012 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  18. ash

    Can someone tell me exactly what Bush policies have led to the great recession?? Clinton handed a giant stock market bubble to Bush, and when that burst, another bubble had to be inflated, it was the housing. Bush started wars, what was he to do, just tell Taliban, do not do this again please? Bush had no choice in Afghanistan. I agree that Iraq was a very bad war. The recession happened due to the flattening of the world and over spending of Americans suddenly coming to halt when the bubble could no longer be sustained. Obama did what he could, same old policies, spend more and more and put a bandaid. Now we have government programs and employees sucking the private sector dry and if we want growth, we need to address this ASAP and Romney is the man to do that, yes, he is filthy rich, but he earned it and he hides it as well, but he shares his wealth with charities as well. In most cases, it will not matter who the president is, I am very worried...

    October 29, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  19. rufus

    The O man in a yellow rain slicker "helping" the peeps. What a riot! Count on him or Biden to make some serious gaffes because they are not true leaders, just political panderers. Their overriding interest in politics will come out as it did in the case of the crisis in Libya.

    October 29, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  20. Alfred E. Neuman

    Why would any senior vote for Romney?
    Why would any woman vote for Romney?
    Why would any college student vote for Romney?
    Why would anyone other than the 1% vote for Romney?

    October 29, 2012 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  21. Derrick

    cgwoffman-republicans don't care about facts or the truth when it comes to this President. Romney lies in your face and then a day or two later switch his position and claim he never said it. How dumb are republicans? He has yet to tell the publica how he will cut the deficit , create 12 million jobs and provide health care for all those people who will lose it if Obamacare is repealed. Wake up folks.....Romney made millions on outsourcing yet you believe he is better for the economy???....really??

    October 29, 2012 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  22. independent

    Mitt Romney is ahead of Obama in Ohio: 50% Romney, 48% Obama. People are waking up! Watch "The Hope And The Change" documentary on HULU.

    October 29, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  23. MTATL67

    I just love these poll sound bite moments. Media forgets to see big picture. President is leading in 9 out 10 battleground states.Some of these number like in Ohio are actual votes. I don't believe Romney will or should win but If he does then that is our democratic process but some how I think the media is playing both sides.

    October 29, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  24. Armand Winter

    Recently admitted to Augusta, Darla Moore and Bush were part owners in the Texas Rangers. Darla Moore was credited with removing current Florida Governor, Rick Scott as CEO of HCA because Darla's husband owned HCA.

    Scott left the 7th largest employer in the US with a golden parachute worth $500 million. Then Bain came in and cleaned up the mess after the 14 felonies and $650 million in fines.

    Why wasn't Rick Scott ever convicted of MedicAid and Medicare fraud?

    All the money grubers of the GOP want to be heir apparent to the Bush crime family especially Romney. Romney has been in on it all this time.

    October 29, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  25. Lai

    @Four and the Door... Can you help me understand what Romney's plan entails? He keeps talking of a plan but I do not understand what it is and how he will carry it out.. In other words, are there any specifics that can leap us understand these "plans"? If you know them, please share with us because I think the nation would benefit from that in these critical last days.. Could help seal the deal or his fate..

    October 29, 2012 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
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