CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida
October 29th, 2012
01:29 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Romney 50% – Obama 49% in Florida

(CNN) – With eight days to go until Election Day, a new survey indicates an extremely close race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.

According to a CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are backing Republican nominee Mitt Romney, with 49% supporting President Barack Obama. The former Massachusetts governor's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

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"The results are unchanged from a one-point margin for Romney in mid-October, except for each candidate gaining a percentage point and the number of truly undecided voters dwindling away to almost nothing," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The survey indicates that there is a slightly larger pool of persuadable voters, often called "uncommitted voters" in this election cycle.

"Roughly five percent of Florida's likely voters say they are truly undecided or have a preference but have not completely made up their minds. Those are the voters in whose hands rests the outcome in the Sunshine State - and possibly the national outcome as well," adds Holland.

According to the poll, a large gender gap has re-opened in Florida, with 55% of men supporting Romney and 54% of women favoring Obama. Generational and income gaps appear as well, with Obama doing better among younger and lower-income voters and Romney ahead among those 50 and older and among those making more than $50,000 per year.

President George W. Bush won Florida in his 2004 re-election, but Obama narrowly captured the state in his 2008 victory over Sen. John McCain. This cycle Florida has once again been getting tons of attention during the general election, with the candidates making frequent visits to the Sunshine State. Romney held three rallies in the state on Saturday. The president was scheduled to headline a rally Monday morning in Orlando, but instead returned to Washington, D.C. to monitor federal emergency preparations for Hurricane Sandy.

The Obama and Romney campaigns are also spending big bucks on get-out-the-vote efforts and to run television commercials in the state. The two presidential campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups supporting the candidates, have shelled out more than $130 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Florida since April 10, the unofficial start of the general election. That's according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising.

Political junkies will recall that Ralph Nader's minor-party candidacy in 2000 is widely credited with taking enough votes from Al Gore to allow George W. Bush to eventually claim the state. Could that happen again this year?

It's tough to tell, but it is intriguing to note that when three minor party candidates are included in a separate horse race question, a 50%-49% margin for Romney becomes a 48%-48% tie, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green party candidate Jill Stein claiming one percent apiece and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode coming in with less than one-half of one percent.

"Statistically, there is no difference between 50%-to-49% and 48%-to-48%, but it does illustrate the potential effect of the minor-party candidates in this extremely close race," adds Holland, who also warns that "close elections are inherently unpredictable - and elections in which a single percentage point separates the two candidates are even tougher, if not impossible, to forecast."

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International, from October 25-28 (entirely after the final presidential debate), with 1,010 adults, including 914 registered voters and 770 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC International poll • Florida • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (88 Responses)
  1. truth1030

    Mitt's a joke that I forgot to laugh at. He's nothing but a snake oil salesman that even members of the republican party hate for his lack of core.. The voters didn't forget then, and won't come next Tuesday. People can see right through that.Voters like someone they can trust and believe when she or he says something, and Mitt's not doesn't have that as a trait. Obama will be re-elected. That is the simple fact..

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  2. scotty

    hey, as a canuck let me extend an invitation to all you Obama supports if Romney wins it. head up north. we have a decent (not perfect) health care system, so you won't go broke if you get sick. we haven't heard our prime minister threaten china or iraq, or call russia our biggest geo-political threat. some come on up eh?

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  3. Bill Clinton

    Obama saved us from another great depression, saved the auto industry, ended the war in Iraq, killed Bin Laden, and has provided affordable health care for all the people. Enough said.

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  4. Bootstomper

    Come on Florida vote OBAMA BIDEN 2012! Make Romney irrelevant.

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  5. GaryB

    It really comes down to the accuracy of the "Likely Voter" screens applied by the polling agencies. In the Florida and national polls that also release their registered voter results, President Obama has led in aomng registered voters in almost every poll. It's only when the pollsters apply their "Likely Voter" screen that former Governor Romney takes the lead.

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  6. jazz333

    Obama will take Ohio and that is the one that counts.

    October 29, 2012 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  7. el rob o

    Elana, I'm so glad you made that comment. What happened was the media got a hold of that and twisted the words. Murdoch did not say what the media said he did. Do you really thing ANYONE would ever say God wants women to be raped? You really have to think about these things before you decide what really happened. I would suggest watching Fox just to get the proper perspective. You need to know that CNN is really in the tank for Obama so they'll twist anything they can to make Romney and conservatives look bad. It's just what they do.
    Thanks!

    October 29, 2012 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  8. DustyOnes

    Romney is really 4 points ahead....

    October 29, 2012 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  9. ddd

    To Jessie P.

    How can Romney address to Democratic guys? He has no authority to do it – he is not an acting President.

    October 29, 2012 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  10. The Real Tom Paine

    -Four and The Door

    Mitt Romney has timed perfectly the momentum needed to win this election. Or maybe it is just that as the election nears, more Americans are really paying attention. Or maybe Obama/ Biden 2012 didn't consider the impact of live debates when they chose their strategy of attack ads and class warfare scare tactics. Maybe Americans just like having a plan.
    **************************************
    Geez, which plan will Willard come out with today? Which way is the wind blowing? Whom does he pander to today? Romney has said he will reveal details after the election, so that means there is no plan.

    October 29, 2012 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
  11. toni

    that last ad about the auto industry is false that shows the character of mitt romney. A salesman that will smile in your face while he is stealing your vote.

    October 29, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  12. Jason Sm1th

    1. Romney doesn't tell what he makes and sells, but his family member businesses benefit from 'Blind' trust somehow. Guess what's going to happen if he is elected, family benefits and Romney says – it's blind trust! I can't release records.
    2. A good CEO can sell Alaska for $50 Trillion to Russia or China, so US can pay off debt. His company may take 50% commission fees for handling. Country may benefit 50% to pay debt. Do you see anything wrong here? I DO.

    What's wrong with the fantastic president we have, he has wrapped his hands around a free falling economy, turned around. He has done terrific job. So cool that he is bringing the unwanted wars to end, the biggest money drain, wants to extend tax cuts for me and average Joe.

    The biggest tax cuts in history from 2000-2012 has not created any Jobs, let's face the fact, that they have sucked in all jobs.

    October 29, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  13. Rick

    Romney and Ryan out campaign in OH and FL, taking advantage of the storm, lying to the people.

    October 29, 2012 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  14. Todd_i

    Please join me in voting for Romney. He is the proven leader with a record of real positive change in business, international events (Olympics) and government. He has the skill set to make real change in Washington.

    October 29, 2012 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  15. Demperor

    What has he been doing since the past 4yrs to put America in the right path? Or does one have to become a president before he can contribute to nation building?

    October 29, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  16. EsquireXII

    This poll is being dishonest. Their actual findings of registered voters had the president with a 6 point lead over Obama. Romney only gets a one point leads when they change the findings to only include likely voters AND give the voters only two choices.. The most dishonest thing is that when you include all the people on the ballot, the results are tied. In order for the president to win according to the CNN poll all he has to do is get the same percentage of his voters to the poll as Romney. Actually, since the president has a 6 point lead among registered voters he does not even have to do that. The last presidential election show how well the president's teams was in getting out the vote. I can imagine that they are better than last time.

    October 29, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  17. Kenny Shackleford

    So goes the Fox Lite polls anyway.

    October 29, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  18. tarura

    Obama in Forida is leading, from behind, as in Libya, LOL

    OMG (Obama must go) ! ! ! !

    October 29, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  19. LR

    Economically,
    Romney is for the rich.
    Obama is for the middle class, poor and disabled.

    October 29, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  20. bigbluenationdb

    It's so funny how most of the people on here want to keep pointing to Bush for all the problems. His last two years in office both the Dems controlled everything and passed all the regulatory policies that lead to alot of the issues. At least under Bush the two parties were able to come together and pass a budget something this administration has failed to do. I am so tire of hearing about how this administration saved the auto industry. Bush had already signed a bill to help the industry. Obama just added to it. Since it has passed, Chrysler is now owned by Fiat (European Company) that within a matter of years will ship most of the production oversees. No one seems to mind that a once 100% owned US Company that the government bailed out is now majority owned by a European Company. Their owner does not care what happens here, he is to smart to keep building cars in the US and overpaying production workers. GM is still on the verge of going bankrupt and has yet to pay a dime back. At least Chrysler once they were acquired by Fiat paid back some of the bail out. 7 out of 10 GM cars are now produced outside the US and they are in the process of building two new plants in Asia and Mexico.

    October 29, 2012 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  21. Are you kidding me?

    Waiting for the implosion of the GOP raid on the White House. Conservatives head will explode when they realize the inevitable – Willard is a lost cause and you have been duped. The falsified motion for less government only started when our president took office. What about the past 20 or 30 years – where was the resentment for big government.

    If you do not like our prescient or the fact that our government is here to help you then pack your stuff and move.

    OB 2012 – and I am a republican voting for intelligence not flipflopping greed hounds.

    October 29, 2012 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  22. Rick

    I was listening to video earlier where Romney said he would gt rid of FEMA and reply on private companies to do what FEMA is doing. Turning over to the private companies to make a huge profit, wasting millions of tax payers money. Is this the right direction, wasting our tax payers money on big storms. What a profit for Romney friends. And BTW, Romney has been calling the NJ and PA governors to see if they are getting the help they need. He never called a Democratic Governor, is this the way Romney would work in case of a nation event.

    October 29, 2012 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  23. FactCheck

    Obama will take Ohio and that is the one that counts.
    -------

    If the President takes VA and FLA, OH won't really even matter. It's just be icing on the cake.

    October 29, 2012 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  24. Randy

    Rasmussen is the most accurate polling firm, they hit it dead on in 2008. As of today Rasmussen has Romney up for 5 in Florida, up by 2 in VA, up by 4 in CO, now tied in WI, and for the first time Romney is up in Ohio by 2. ROMNEY/RYAN on November 6. Oblame-O is done, the socialist has left the building.

    October 29, 2012 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  25. mike58

    all the polls i see have given FL to Romney already I'm not sure what this is talking about.

    October 29, 2012 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
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