CNN's GUT CHECK for October 31, 2012
October 31st, 2012
05:04 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN's GUT CHECK for October 31, 2012

CNN's GUT CHECK | for October 31, 2012 | 5 p.m.
n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

JUST IN: OBAMA, CHRISTIE TOUR STORM RAVAGED JERSEY COAST… "I cannot thank the president enough for his personal concern and compassion for our state and the people of our state," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie tells reporters after surveying Sandy damage on Wednesday in Brigantine.

DEVELOPING: BATTLEGROUND POLLS STAY TIGHT

OHIO
CNN POLL OF POLLS – October 22-30
Likely voters' choice for President

Obama 49%
Romney 46%

VIRGINIA
CNN POLL OF POLLS – October 22-28
Likely voters' choice for President

Obama 47%
Romney 48%

GOING VIRAL: A YouTube video of Fort Collins 4 year-old Abigael crying over the presidential election has gone viral on social media.

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)
Under what administration did the first White House Halloween party – an event described as “the most interesting party ever given in the dignified setting of the White House” – occur?

MARK (@PrestonCNN) & MICHELLE (@MJaconiCNN)
What caught our eye today in politics

In the closing six days of a campaign that the Center for Reponsive Politics prices at a whopping $5.8 billion, the humanity of two partisan enemies shaking hands at the bottom of the Air Force Once struck a chord.

Barack Obama and Chris Christie, the political power couple of the news cycle, put the United States first today and it was hard not to notice in this hyper-partisan atmosphere. Yes, battleground polls still reminded us of the tight race in the final days of this campaign. Local newspapers still discussed the latest auto industry claims from both campaigns, which candidate was leading in early registration and campaign rallies in their respective states. But none of it seemed to matter for a few hours as the nation witnessed the tour of destroyed homes and towns.

We asked Alex Castellanos, a master of political imagery, how much today's news cycle had to sting the Republican ticket.

"In stormy seas, people tend to cling to the life-raft they are on," Castellanos wrote in an email to Gut Check. "The more uncertain the moment, the less likely people are to pile more uncertainty on top of it and vote for change. National crises like these usually benefit the incumbent."

For Obama, the photo-op is priceless days before the election. But Christie, too, has something to gain, as we noted in Monday’s edition. While his approval rating is in the 50s, the politically astute governor knows when to put his state before any national ambition he or his party may have - if you need any more proof of that, go re-read the transcript of his "keynote" address to the Republican National Convention just two months ago. Gut Check favorite Mark Leibovich described it in these terms: “Chris Christie, It's Not All About Him, He Said Often.”

In a tight playing field, and in this hyper-paced media environment, much can still happen. Castellanos for one still believes that the damage to Obama's re-election energy was already done, "It may turn out that the bigger storm to hit the Obama campaign was Benghazi a couple of weeks ago. And it may have washed away a lot of Obama's strength."

Castellanos’ comment reminds us how much difference a news cycle can make ... which keeps our eyes counting the days until Friday's job report.

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Anti-Obama mail piece: ‘We are no longer a Christian nation’
Focus on the Family, the Colorado-based social conservative organization founded by evangelical author and radio host James Dobson, is targeting Iowa voters with a mailing that quotes President Barack Obama as saying “we are no longer a Christian nation.” The fold-out brochure, which landed in Iowa mailboxes last week and was provided to CNN by a Des Moines-area voter, draws a series of contrasts between Obama and Mitt Romney on the issues of abortion, same-sex marriage and insurance coverage for contraception. – Peter Hamby

Leading Drudge: 'Going To Give You The Whole Load'
At a campaign event, Vice President Joe Biden promised "to give ... the whole load today. As they say in my business, I'm going to give you the whole load today," said Biden. – Daniel Halper

Leading HuffPo: Holding The Line
With less than a week remaining before results are counted, the presidential race remains remarkably close, with President Barack Obama maintaining a very narrow lead in most polls over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Ohio, the state whose outcome could well decide the election. A new Ohio poll released on Wednesday morning by CBS News, The New York Times and The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed Obama maintaining a five percentage point advantage over Romney in Ohio, the same margin as on a previous CBS/Quinnipiac survey conducted in the state two weeks ago. – Mark Blumenthal

Leading Politico: 1 week, 2 versions of reality
As if Hurricane Sandy weren’t doing enough to muddle the presidential race a week before the election, the two campaigns now seem to be embracing two sharply different versions of political reality. – Jonathan Martin

Leading The New York Times: Ohio Working Class May Offer Key to Obama’s Re-election
As President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the presidential race, where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio are seen by both sides as critical to victory, Mr. Obama’s ability to prevent erosion among working-class voters may be his best path to re-election. – Jeff Zeleny

TRAIL MOMENTS
The political bites of the day

– Romney tones down partisan rhetoric, Romney courts ‘single moms’ –
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN FLORIDA: “I think of all the single moms across America, all the single moms that are scrimping and saving to make sure they have good meal on the table at the end of the day for their children. And think of the moms and dads who have two jobs right now, or one has a day job and one has a night job, they hardly see each other, and why? So they can buy the clothes for their kids that won’t make their kids stand out at school. I think of all the parents at Christmas time, last year and probably this year who are saying to each other ‘lets not exchange gifts so we have plenty to give to our kids.’ This is the American character.”

– Forecasting victory, Ryan paints rosy picture of ‘Wednesday morning’ –
PAUL RYAN AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN WISCONSIN: “I’ll tell you what: Wisconsinites, we are problem solvers. We don’t care who gets credit, we just want to fix things. So, when you take a look at the challenges on our horizon, one of the reasons why our businesses aren’t hiring, one of the reasons we have 23 million people struggling for work, one of the biggest reasons we have 15% of Americans in poverty today is because our economy is not growing because there is a massive amount of government-imposed uncertainty plaguing our economy. On day one, we are going to fix that. On day one, we are going to go in a different direction. So, this is Wednesday morning. Think about next Wednesday morning.”

–Meanwhile, Team Obama says its Math vs. Myth –
JIM MESSINA, OBAMA CAMPAIGN MANAGER, ON A CONFERENCE CALL WITH REPORTERS: “We have the math and they have the myth. Whether we're talking about getting out the vote or bringing down the deficit- our numbers add up. The Romney team is trying to sell illusion and delusion.”

– This has to be the first ‘animal spirits’ mention of the election –
JEB BUSH AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN FLORIDA: “Job one on Day One will be to restore sustained economic growth for our country. It will lift the spirits of America if people believe that they can invest in their own dreams, that there is the chance that they can get an education and be able to get a job, that they can get the job maybe that they lost two years ago. It will lift our spirits and the animal spirits of America will come back as well and we will be able to take care of ourselves rather than getting in line and looking for a hand out from some government entity. That’s not the America that we know.”

Gut Check Full Service: CNN’s Christine Romans tells us that “Animal Spirits” is an economic term that is at the heart of western capitalism; they are the "je ne sais quoi" of human behavior that make us turn from scared to confident, prudent to risky. John Maynard Keynes coined the term to “describe human emotion that drives consumer confidence.”

– Biden already looking ahead to 2016? –
WHILE TALKING TO A REPUBLICAN VOTER ON THE PHONE, VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN LOOKS AHEAD FOUR YEARS: “I'm not trying to talk you into voting for me, I just wanted to say hi to you. Ok? And after it's all over when your insurance rates go down, then you'll vote for me in 2016.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

TRIVIA ANSWER

Though rumors and stories of ghosts and séances on the White House campus date back to the Lincoln administration, the Eisenhower administration – primarily because of first lady Mamie Eisenhower – is largely credited as the first White House to celebrate Halloween.

According to White House Historical Association, the Eisenhowers had the foyers decked out in shucks of corn and had decorative witches and goblins peaking out around the house.

Mrs. Eisenhower also hosted a Halloween party for the wives of White House staff members. According to accounts of the event, Mamie had the State Dining floor decorated with “ghosts, goblins, spider, skeletons and cobwebs” and “Woolworth paper skeletons hanging from the chandelier, paper black cats and witches placed around the tables and carved pumpkins as centerpieces.”

The Obama’s have also been known to partake in the Halloween festivities. In 2009 – the first couple’s first Halloween in the White House – Michelle Obama dressed up in a catwoman costume – complete with ears and whiskers – and handed out candy to around 2,000 kids.

Due to Superstorm Sandy, the Obama’s 2012 Halloween festivities have been cancelled.

Gut Check Correction: In the October 22 edition of Gut Check, we incorrectly said that Washington University was the host of the famous 1992 town hall debate. The ever vigilant Professor Larry Sabato – who was at the debate – pointed out to us that the debate actually took place at the University of Richmond. Please keep us honest and email gutcheck@cnn.com if we get anything wrong.

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congrats to Daniel Holt (@dholt3566) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question. Happy Halloween everyone!

GOT NEWS?
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Tips or comments? Send them to Michelle; send complaints to Preston, because he is already in a bad mood. We also want to give a shout out to Dan Merica, who runs our Twitter account @gutCheckCNN and enriches this product every single day.


Filed under: CNN's Gut Check
soundoff (39 Responses)
  1. Thank Mr. President and Governor...

    Thank Mr. President and Governor for leading by example.

    October 31, 2012 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  2. FrediMeier

    Human beings are by nature more motivated to start something new, other than to support something existing.

    October 31, 2012 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |
  3. NVa Native

    The President being out front of a managing disaster response and running a re-election campaign – exhibiting two of his many talents, but I'm sure the right-winger Republicks will make up some malicious story about it.

    October 31, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  4. Gurgyl

    Obama and Criss the good ones. Than q.,

    October 31, 2012 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  5. g

    did i just see christie blast fox foreign news

    October 31, 2012 05:52 pm at 5:52 pm |
  6. Sniffit

    "Human beings are by nature more motivated to start something new, other than to support something existing."

    Not really. That is a trait found by psych studies to be exhibitted by people who describe themselves as "liberal." The same studies show that people who describe themselves as "conservative" tend to resist change at all costs and exhibit anger and fear when it is occurring and they can't stop it.

    October 31, 2012 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  7. Lulu

    Mr. President, we appreciate putting your campaign on hold to check on your people This confirms your priorities. Being a tight race, we know your campaign is also important for you. Good luck and we hope you win the elections! Thank you as well to Gov. Christie for being so honest anc caring for your people.

    October 31, 2012 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  8. Bill

    This is so refreshing to see – they both deserve a lot of credit for putting politics aside and doing what is right for the American people. Too bad Congress can not follow this example.

    October 31, 2012 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  9. ThinkAgain: All of the GOP's policies are PROVEN FAILURES

    Thank you, Mr. President and Gov. Christie, for demonstrating TRUE bipartisanship and putting country ahead of politics! Mittens 'n' Munster could learn a lesson or two from you ...

    October 31, 2012 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  10. Clarke

    This is not about party lines, this is about helping all people, no matter race, color, greed Or party lines. Get over it people and the media who wants to make it political. The concern is where it should be, on the people of the States that need help.

    October 31, 2012 07:31 pm at 7:31 pm |
  11. Allen

    Rat – Boy Willard is toast. Trending at this stage of the election by such a wide margin signifies Obama will have the wight wing Weenies whining four more years into the future.

    October 31, 2012 07:39 pm at 7:39 pm |
  12. Thank You Sandy

    Look at the president taking care of his people!

    Obama gonna win! Obama gonna win!

    October 31, 2012 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  13. USA

    America get's to see how our President can and will work with Republicans who have good intentions for our Great Nation and it's people...God Bless the President, Governor and all those who are suffering lost in NJ

    October 31, 2012 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
  14. edisto

    Watching the President and Governor in NJ is a shinning example of what could be if humans put goodwill ahead of individual greed and power. Thanks for reminding us of what public service should look like everyday not just in disasters.

    October 31, 2012 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
  15. Wholewitt

    Thank you Governor Christie for one of those rare moments of Republican honesty. Good luck to you and your state. Remember how the last administration responded and under Romney FEMA will go the way of Big Bird and PBS.

    October 31, 2012 08:39 pm at 8:39 pm |
  16. robw

    no lie is too big for the GOP.

    October 31, 2012 08:59 pm at 8:59 pm |
  17. Beverly - NYC

    Romney the liar caught faking his "relief" event. His campaign is in total desparation mode. I thought the Ryan shelter photo op was low, Romney proves he is willing to go lower.

    October 31, 2012 09:06 pm at 9:06 pm |
  18. MarieMD

    This is what we need to do as a country! Stand together through thick and thin and when times get tough or times are good.
    The old man and the mutant from AK started this hate in 2008 and it's been building. We cannot stand as a country if we don't put politics aside at times like this.
    While the President is in NJ the twit is holding rallies and bush the third is talking about the President doesn't want to help everyone. Did you know that the twit's people actually bought those canned goods and gave them to the fools who showed up? How low can these people go!?!?!?!?!?

    October 31, 2012 09:25 pm at 9:25 pm |
  19. Ancient Texan

    The President is doing his job following the disaster, FINALLY, after 18 months of ignoring the job to non stop campaign.

    October 31, 2012 09:32 pm at 9:32 pm |
  20. Bob

    Stark contrast. The Libya tragedy and Romney tries to use it to political advantage. Sandy and Obama just does what a real Commander in Chief does. Also, compare Obama's response to Sandy compared to Bush's non-response to Katrina.

    October 31, 2012 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  21. Lauri

    Man if the Republicans could have gotten Christie to run for president this race would have been a tough one for Obama. Contrast Christie's blunt, honest communication with the Mitt...wow, what a difference. Please Gov. Christie work with President Obama in the his second term...be a liason to the Congressional Brat Boys.

    October 31, 2012 09:43 pm at 9:43 pm |
  22. becky

    Today we saw how our leaders can work together and show respect and caring for each other and the people. People are asking for help and it is arriving. FEMA is once again working so hard to help those who have lost so much.

    October 31, 2012 09:59 pm at 9:59 pm |
  23. http://Website Thank You Sandy!!

    I was voting for Romney, but now I'm switching to Mr.President Obama, just because of Sandy!!!

    October 31, 2012 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm |
  24. Barak Lincoln

    Chris Christi just started his 2016 Campaign!!!

    October 31, 2012 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  25. Barak Lincoln

    They gonna get something new alright

    October 31, 2012 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
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