Michigan poll: Obama 48% – Romney 42%
October 31st, 2012
07:26 PM ET
1 year ago

Michigan poll: Obama 48% – Romney 42%

(CNN) – A new poll released Wednesday indicates President Barack Obama has a six-point advantage over Mitt Romney in Michigan.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters in the state back the incumbent president, while 42% support the GOP presidential nominee, according to a new EPIC-MRA poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ, a CNN affiliate.

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While the six point margin falls within the poll's sampling error, the difference represents a wider gap between the two candidates than when the poll was last conducted after the first presidential debate. An EPIC-MRA survey released on October 8 showed Obama with a three point edge.

The president, however, seems to have regained momentum in Michigan, where Romney's father served as governor in the 1960s.

Among independent voters, Obama has a 42%-31% margin over Romney, while nearly 30% say they would choose a third-party candidate or stay undecided, the poll shows.

The Wolverine State also serves as home to a large sector of the auto industry, a part of the economy that has seen intense focus in the presidential election. Obama's campaign portrays the president as the industry's savior thanks to his role in overseeing the auto bailout.

But Romney's team faults the Obama administration for mishandling the bailout, saying taxpayers will still be responsible for a large chunk of the federal loan. Of late, Romney has taken up a new attack line, saying the bailout has allowed some automakers to expand manufacturing overseas and shift jobs away from the U.S. The auto companies, General Motors and Chrysler, have staunchly denied such accusations.

Results from Wednesday's poll indicate the auto bailout played a big part in voters' minds as they made their ballot decisions, with half of respondents saying the federal loan was a deciding factor. Nearly two-thirds of them were Obama supporters.

EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Detroit Free Press that the auto issues "solidified things for Obama" in the state.

Obama's campaign confirmed Tuesday it would soon go up with television ads in Michigan, following a recent advertising push by the pro-Romney super PAC, Restore Our Future, which has invested millions in air time in the state.

With 16 electoral votes, Michigan is rated as "leaning Democratic" on CNN's Electoral Map. However, recent polls that show a tighter race than expected, combined with the Detroit News' endorsement for Romney, have caused some politics observers to revisit the state.

But a senior Obama campaign adviser was so confident about the president's chances in Michigan that he vowed Wednesday to shave his trademark mustache if Democrats lose.

In the survey, both Romney and Obama fare well on the question of enthusiasm. About three-quarters of supporters for both candidates say they were enthusiastic about voting.

The GOP nominee has 46%-44% edge over the president when it comes to who would best handle the economy, according to the poll. Obama fared better on other issues, including Social Security and Medicare, health care and Afghanistan.

For the survey, EPIC-MRA interviewed 600 likely voters in Michigan by telephone from October 26 through October 28. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

– CNN's Kevin Bohn and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Michigan • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (51 Responses)
  1. sayer

    So tired of Mitt on tv pretending to care about people who are hurting. Clearly he feels different behind closed doors with his rich friends.

    October 31, 2012 09:43 pm at 9:43 pm |
  2. becky

    Today we had the chance to see both candidates and how they are responding to a national disaster. The President was on the ground in NY where Gov. Christie joined him to assess the damage and to see what was needed. Gov. Christie is a staunch Republican but partisan politics was left behind as both men met together and with those who are directing the recovery efforts. This is something that the President has done before. He was wise enough to allow responders for Irene to do their jobs before arriving in LA. Mr. Romney went there directly from the Republican convention and was allowed to show his concern in a non-partisan way. This is just as it should be.

    However, the Romney campaign arrived in Florida prepared to campaign. There were speeches which complained about the President and some folks were just plain inane in their comments. Former Governor Bush blasted the President on a day that President Obama was in NJ assessing the damage done by Sandy. It was hard not to think back to Katrina and the problems that folks had then. The FEMA director could not do the job yet President George Bush praised him. The difference between the response to Sandy and to Katrina could not be denied.

    Mr. Romney had a great chance to show compassion today and he did not. His campaign bought food, gave it to people at the rally who were then shown giving that food to the Romney campaign. How bizarre is that! For sure these people are not part of the 47% because we know how to help each other and how to work with relief agencies. The Romney people would have done better to put out a call to all the wealthy Americans who support Romney and the corporate heads and band presidents who support Romney to send money to relief efforts instead of making anonymous donations those PACS where they never have to have their name published as a donor. This is just a little too much like the cartoons of the wealthy trying to help others. I would hope there are people who do know what to do.

    October 31, 2012 09:53 pm at 9:53 pm |
  3. Mike in Texas

    Look at where is Mitt is going to be and that will tell you the direction his campaign is going. He was in Florida today which means Florida is not in Romney's corner yet. Ryan goes to Wisconsin, his home state which I think is more of trying to protect his current job. The numbers and time don't add up for Romney. He is spending money in places like MI, MN and PA but he isn't making appearances in these places. He has tons of money so when a poll says he is closer in a state he will spend money to give an appearance of the state being in play when it isn't. It was like last election where Obama was spending in AZ, MT and GA places where he had no chance of winning.

    October 31, 2012 10:01 pm at 10:01 pm |
  4. Joe

    Michigan is not the Wolverine State, it is the Great Lakes State. Wolverines are garbage.

    October 31, 2012 10:12 pm at 10:12 pm |
  5. ferozuddin azizi

    hopefully president Obama win this election because Romney's foreign policy is too scary. It is true that the president Obama has not done any useful thing in the last 4 years except he try to bring stability to economy of America after George W. Bush messed up.

    October 31, 2012 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  6. ferozuddin azizi

    yes it is important to the economy of USA to save auto industries because they are pretty big companies and it is good thing that Obama made the right decision to bailout the auto industries in time of economy crisis. Obama is winning over Romney where Romney's father was the governor.

    October 31, 2012 10:23 pm at 10:23 pm |
  7. Ron L- Mich

    Mr Romney will not win Michigan, but what I am amazed about is he is even within 6 percentage points. This is a man who says he would have allowed the auto industry to collapse!! I have had people who are going to vote for him say "sure he wrote and said that but if he had been President he would have done the same thing President Obama did once he saw no one in the private sector would guarantee loans." My response is HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT?? I attempt to explain to them that after running Bain, liquidation of companies was not a big deal to him. He has become desensitized to the effects plant closures has on people. He believes while they may have closed and gone out of business, something else would rise up in its place, that is the law of capitalism. I believe he would have let them collapse......America would have lost a lot more than just building cars. It would have slowly lost all the high tech knowledge that comes with manufacturing which would have been devastating for decades to come.

    October 31, 2012 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  8. Larry L

    Romney is losing in both the state of his birth and that where he served as Governor. Could it be folks in these states don't like lies, distortions, flip-flops, and politicians who refuse to give them any specifics? Could it be the people in Michigan don't like the lies Romney is telling right now about the auto industry? Maybe they're just angry at Republicans for blocking all progress as the President worked to fix the recession THEY STARTED!

    October 31, 2012 11:11 pm at 11:11 pm |
  9. RJ1008

    There is not one swing state where Mitt can claim a clear lead. Even NC is a tie as of today. I think adding numbers is a major problem with Mitt. I don't know why he is continuing to campaign, wasting millions of dollars. He can donate that to the Red cross now.

    October 31, 2012 11:47 pm at 11:47 pm |
  10. Proud American

    America Needs Mitt Romney to fix our political broken system in D.C

    16 Trillion Dollars in debt? come on America. Wake up. It is time for a real change.

    October 31, 2012 11:49 pm at 11:49 pm |
  11. marsha

    Obana 2012. we are moving forward. no big change, the movement to assisted our country which is now In a overwhelming situation i ve been in storms in alabama. american red cross they need help. God bless usa

    October 31, 2012 11:50 pm at 11:50 pm |
  12. pcalif

    There is a lot of effort by the Romney campaign to divert attention to blue states. The Obama campaign desperately needs to turn some attention to voter fraud in Iowa. Even though Pres O is up by several points, there are some suspicious happenings in Iowa. Please Dems, take a look!!!

    October 31, 2012 11:51 pm at 11:51 pm |
  13. pcalif

    The Obama campaign needs to take a close look at the possibility of voter fraud in Iowa. Although they are up by what would appear to be a comfortable margin, there is some suspicious activity there. I would ask the Democrats to be on alert there NOW.

    October 31, 2012 11:53 pm at 11:53 pm |
  14. Zwei Stein

    Republican politicians, one after the other, have sold out the middle class of Michigan. How the Republican candidate can have more than 5% of the people behind him, is completely beyond me.

    November 1, 2012 12:03 am at 12:03 am |
  15. Dave in Arizona

    If you take the most recent poll results and assume they're the final outcome, and plug those into CNN's electoral map, Obama's already at 313. And that's even without committing IA and NH to a side. Obama would have Ohio and Florida both.

    Of course, those are just polls and the race isn't over yet. Still, as much as you try not to politicize it, the timing of the storm and Christie's kind words are definitely favoring Obama and putting Romney on his heels regarding the role of the federal government in natural disasters.

    November 1, 2012 12:37 am at 12:37 am |
  16. cosmo

    UNINSTALLING OBAMA.....……………. ██████████████▒▒ 90% complete.

    November 1, 2012 12:41 am at 12:41 am |
  17. gius

    There's something a little strange about this Romney guy!

    November 1, 2012 01:03 am at 1:03 am |
  18. Dan

    This is good news. I don't want to have go to work.
    I want someone else to do that for me.

    November 1, 2012 01:08 am at 1:08 am |
  19. thegame

    Democrat – 43%
    Republican – 37%
    Independent – 17%

    Enough Said!!

    November 1, 2012 01:32 am at 1:32 am |
  20. Ryan

    I'd like to know the methodology of this poll, as it makes no logical or mathematical sense. How can President Obama have an 11 point advantage in independent voters (42-31) – yet only a 6 point overall lead (48-42)... in a state with a substantial majority of Democratic voters? It seems to be completely impossible to arrive at those numbers.

    November 1, 2012 01:35 am at 1:35 am |
  21. Alfredo

    LOL.... Republicans are probably losing their minds right now. Obama 2012!!!

    November 1, 2012 02:33 am at 2:33 am |
  22. A Kickin` Donkey

    I have little doubt that Mr. Obama will win but I am dismayed by how close this election is. I`m not sure if it is general voter apathy, racism or just ignorance of what Romney stands for / has said but whatever the reason, there is NO WAY this election should be close and certainly not in Michigan – epicenter of the US auto industry.

    The only way forward for the GOP and whatever benefit it might 1 day bring to America is for it to be thrashed in the election. Only then will it moderate and change its ways.

    November 1, 2012 02:49 am at 2:49 am |
  23. kaneisha

    Both parties hv made brilliant points and till the end of this election there's really nooo way to tell who will come out on top i know its not hard for a person to love a country its a lil bothering when, if the question of wht they like about the country come up how it'll drawls an awkward silence and the only thing that is heard are the things they ignored or maybe just dont understand eitha way evrybody wanna be like miKe and romney know so.Go on and get in where u fit Obama

    November 1, 2012 03:33 am at 3:33 am |
  24. igala

    Finally POTUS has regained his momemtum

    November 1, 2012 03:56 am at 3:56 am |
  25. edward sevume

    Once, I was told that I had a problem of not listening. As I was listening to people telling me about things, I was already consumed in preparing my answer! Here is Romney´s problem that many of us experience – not listening and wanting to come with quick answers so he appears as if he is in charge or well informed on issues. We have seen it on Detroit with the – let Detroit go bankrupt stance and wanting to spin himself out of it(wanted to appear a business man in charge), we have heard him in the middle of the night giving answers on Libya, we have seen how he plays foreseer on natural calamities and how best to for Americans to leave rescue and recovery to the private sector, how he thinks of Russia with Cold War glasses plus plenty many issues.Romney is now a qualified shooter from the waist and he misses. Romney is not alone! But for Romney, I would recommend reading Freud who said – if you listen and talk less, you would learn a thing or two. The advantage is giving well balanced answers. For now, Romney could easily be called a distortionist

    November 1, 2012 04:49 am at 4:49 am |
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