Poll: Obama leads in Wisconsin
October 31st, 2012
03:05 PM ET
6 years ago

Poll: Obama leads in Wisconsin

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Wisconsin shows President Barack Obama with an eight point lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the state.

The Marquette University Law School poll indicates 51% of likely Wisconsin voters backing the president while 43% support Romney. Obama's lead falls outside the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

- Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

- Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Previous surveys of Wisconsin voters, however, show a much tighter race between the presidential hopefuls in the Badger State.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released on October 18 showed Obama with 51% of support among likely voters and 45% of support for Romney. The six point margin falls within the survey's sampling error, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied in the state.

The last Marquette University poll released October 17 indicated Obama with 49% of support among likely voters in the state and Romney with 48%. Obama's one point edge also falls within the survey's sampling error.

Ten percent of likely voters in Wisconsin said they have voted early. Among early voters, 56% have supported the president and 36% backed Romney with 1% voting for third party candidates. The poll showed a similar trend in the U.S. Senate race. Democrat Rep. Tammy Baldwin received 52% support among early voters to Republican and former governor Tommy Thompson's 36% and 1% support for third party candidates.

Wisconsin, with its ten electoral votes, is a battleground state in the race for the White House and has been frequented by the campaigns and their surrogates as the days dwindle down to November 6.

Romney's running mate Rep. Paul Ryan is campaigning in Wisconsin, his home state, on Wednesday and will trick-or-treat with his children in his congressional district in Janesville for Halloween.

The Marquette poll also indicates a heated battle for the Senate. Baldwin has slight advantage over Thompson – 47% to Thompson's 43%. The Democratic candidate's edge falls within the poll's sampling error. Ten percent of likely voters were undecided or had no preference. In the previous Marquette poll, Thompson had 46% support and Baldwin had 45%.

The Marquette poll was conducted by telephone from October 25-28 among 1,243 likely voters in Wisconsin. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

–CNN's Ashley Killough contributed to this report.

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Wisconsin
soundoff (41 Responses)
  1. FactCheck

    Ran across this headline the other day and thought that it was very informative:
    "GOP Internal Polls (NJ, CA, MI, PA) Show Possible Landslide...for McCain" (article was from 2008)

    October 31, 2012 03:52 pm at 3:52 pm |
  2. Charlie

    I am voting early and supporting Barack Obama

    October 31, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  3. Sniffit

    "For all those people who don't have their heads up the President's butt, here is what the real poll looks like in WI.

    President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

    I see. So the poll that CNN cherry-picked is wrong because of the poll that you cherry-picked? Freekin asinine.

    October 31, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  4. independent FL

    I voted early and I voted for the whole democratic ticket, here in sunny Florida

    October 31, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  5. California Gary

    If this polls numbers hold up until election day, what an embarrassment for Ryan..........much deserved and richly earned I might add.

    October 31, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  6. The Situation


    The main stream media's lack of investigating and reporting, in regards to the Benghazi tragedy, where four brave Americans were murdered, is a disgrace. In 2012, after Romney and Ryan replace the empty suit, in the empty chair, America needs to replace the corrupt main stream media, with real journalists.

    October 31, 2012 03:39 pm at 3:39 pm |

    Yeah, disgraceful like Bush dangling Bin Laden around to pump fear to the voters the day before the 2004 Elections, when he had ample of warning signs to know that an attack was close and soon. Disgraceful like Bush using the anniversary of 9/11 to use it as a back drop to draw up a war under falsehoods with Iraq. Disgraceful like Bush not responding to the people of New Orleans when Katrina hit, again, his administration had their warning and didn't do nothing.

    October 31, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  7. SaintM

    Hmmm, I wonder if Paul Ryan's antiquated, mysoginistic, militant right to life, down with women's rights about their bodies philosophy had anything to do with it. Women of Wisconsin–YOU GO!!!!

    October 31, 2012 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  8. Rick McDaniel

    I think we ALL know that one is a lie........CNN is in the back pocket of the Democratic Party........and they are controlling everything people see or hear, to try and prevent Obama's loss, but it isn't going to happen.

    October 31, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  9. SaintM

    Critical Thinking – Rasmussen does not call cell phones, so the polls are not accurate. Romney has no chance if he does not win Ohio, which he won't. Electoral colllege favors Obama at 280 electoral votes. In case you can't count, 280 is more than 270, and Obama can do it without the other states. Duhh.

    October 31, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  10. becky

    An important characteristic that a President must have is grace under pressure. President Obama has shown that over and over again. Our nation has had natural disasters which were much greater than those in the past. The President has allowed FEMA to do its job. Those people appointed by President Obama have led the recovery efforts over and over again. The President has been there to reassure folks and to let us know what is going on.

    On the foreign policy side he has allowed Secretary of State Clinton to do her job. She has received kudos over and over again The President is not afraid to share the spotlight. When he travels abroad he continues to keep his cool. No matter what the issue including the military move to capture bin Laden he resists the urge to speak too quickly. Mr. Romney showed that he cannot do the same. His comments in London during the Olympics came too quickly and he instantly insulted the country and the London Committee which was running the Olympics. That is not even a rookie move because Mr. Romney should have had ample opportunity as a CEO to spin a little. On this alone I could not support Mr. Romney but I have many instances that prove to me he is not ready to become President of the United States of America. He forgets this is a country for all the people – no one should ever be left out. His 47% remark left me dumbfounded. Who was he impressing?

    October 31, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  11. LocalVokal

    I am convinced that the people voting for Romney/Ryan are voting out of hate or fear. Either they hate the President, for whatever reason, or they've bought into the end of the world propaganda EVEN THOUGH things are turning around. Why else would you vote for someone who tells you what you want to hear to your face ("I am for the 100%") but says something else entirely to a different group of people ("I can't make 47% of America take responsibility for their lives."). Romney would be a puppet president. Do you really think someone who changes positions so much would make his own decisions in the WH? He can't even stand up to his own party. Hows he going to stand up to foreign leaders? Obama made decisions that he thought were good for the country even if they weren't populare within his party. Romney would be the robot grover was talking about; simply put in office to sign whatever crosses his desk. Why is this ok with some people?

    October 31, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  12. Jason

    Hey what happen to that so-called Close WI election all the right wingers where saying 2 days ago about WI. Karl Rove and others where saying WI is going in Romney direction and he closed the gap.

    What gap, other than the one President Obama just open up on Romney.

    What do you say now, right winger/obama haters.

    October 31, 2012 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  13. Donkey Party

    To you insanely ignorant right-wingers that say the President isn't ahead in the polls, and you cite your source as Rasmussen, that's like citing Fox News as an accurate and objective news source. What are you going to do when reality overtakes your delusion and the President wins re-election???

    October 31, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  14. Jason

    Hey critical thinking and other right wingers

    Rasmussen = Right Wing/Conservative Pollster. Who by the way is on Fox News every other day.

    The only people that talk about Rasmussen are fools like critical thinking and other right wingers.

    They only got 1 or 2 polls to talk about and that's Rasmussen and that crazy Gallup. Oh yeah Gallup conducts Nation wide polling. Which is all about popular Vote. The last I checked the election is won on Electoral Votes not Popular vote. So take your little Rasmussen and Gallup Poll and Shoved it.. Looser!!!

    October 31, 2012 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  15. Jason

    I repeat Rasmussen = Right Wing/Conservative Pollster

    Rasmussen is on Fox News every other night with Sean Hannity and Bill O'reilly.

    Taking a Poll from Rasmussen is like taking a Poll mostly from the same people who Love Fox News..

    Idiot Right wingers

    October 31, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  16. WilSmith24

    Obama win will be bigger then the polls are showing, keep in mind the polls are only land line phone and more republicans and older people own land lines. I am 52 years old and i do not own a land line phone. I only use cell. I am a Obama support and never been surveyed. I feel Obama will not even need Ohio. VA and FL will seal the deal base on what time the poll close. All the polls this year has beem strange and some many new polls are out, many polls I never heard of before. At this point and time 98% of the people mines are made up.

    October 31, 2012 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
1 2