CNN's GUT CHECK | for November 1, 2012 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle
BREAKING: 50% – 48% IN COLORADO, OBAMA UP TWO IN NEW CNN/ORC POLL… It's a tight race in Colorado, with 50% of likely voters picking Barack Obama and 48% choosing Mitt Romney. That margin for Obama is well within the survey's sampling error, essentially making the race a tie. As in most swing states, there is a fairly big gender gap, with Romney ahead among men by 10 points and Obama winning women by 13 points. Income is also an important indicator. Obama has a big lead among lower wage earners, while voters with more than $50,000 in income last year are tied - 49% for Romney, 49% for Obama. But the key to the Colorado election may be the split between the Denver area and the rest of the state, with the suburbs likely to determine the winner. – CNN’s Keating Holland
On this day in 1800, John Adams became the first resident of what is now known as the White House. Where in Washington was Adams living before moving in?
Forget two Americas, there are now two electorates.
There are the Americans who live in the uncontested states, who started paying attention around the conventions, and then there are the Americans in the swing states who have been barraged relentlessly since June with propaganda – who are now forever immortalized by the 4-year-old Colorado internet sensation Abigael, who in tears asks for “Bronco Obama” and “Mitt Romney” to stop.
Political analyst Charlie Cook looks at this effect: “in the states that have experienced the minimalist campaign, the popular-vote numbers are even or maybe up for Republican nominee Mitt Romney by a bit,” Cook writes in his National Journal column out tomorrow. “But for those in the battleground states, who had seen Romney’s head bashed in last summer by the Obama campaign’s attacks on Bain Capital, plant closings, layoffs, outsourcing, and income taxes—not to mention bank accounts in Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, and Switzerland—skepticism has persisted.”
Cook describes these attacks as “Romney’s scar tissue” that “continues to get in the way of these swing-state voters fully embracing this new and improved Mitt.”
But the “scar tissue” is exactly what we have our eye on: From the auto industry attacks in Ohio to the 47% attacks in Nevada and Virginia. How much do these charges remain under the skin of voters as they bow their head to fill their secret ballots? A quick look at the front pages in the last two days shows exactly what the other American electorate is seeing:
Today’s Las Vegas Review Journal: Obama widens lead in Nevada
Pollster: Game not over for Romney
Today’s Detroit Free Press: Obama’s lead now 6 points in state
President’s help for auto industry is a key reason
Yesterday’s Detroit Free Press: GM and Chrysler: Romney is Wrong
GOP presidential hopeful attacks the auto rescue again.
Yesterday’s The Toledo Blade: CEO: U.S.-built Jeep will continue legacy
Marchionne refutes Romney statement.
Did you miss it?
Leading CNNPolitics: Obama, Romney paths to victory cross in Iowa
As the presidential race enters its final days, Iowa stands out as a question mark on the electoral map. Strategists in both parties express confidence about winning the state and its six electoral votes, but few on either side are willing to guarantee a victory. – Peter Hamby
Leading Drudge: 5 Days
Who has the momentum in the race for the White House – President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Each campaign claims it does and aims to impress that upon voters. – Gregory Wallace with CNN
Leading HuffPo: No More Mr. Nice Mitt
The reprieve from partisan sniping between President Barack Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney during Hurricane Sandy ended on Thursday, with Romney giving a barn-burner stump speech to a crowd in Roanoke, Va. The Romney campaign had suggested on Wednesday night that the candidate would stay above the fray during the final stretch of the campaign, presenting a vision for his first term in office that matched the more serious tone of the past few days. That vision was offered on Thursday, but accompanying it was a slew of well-rehearsed attack lines, as well as some new ones. – Sam Stein
Leading Politico: Radio: The other air war
Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and their allies have also unleashed a flood of radio ads, which usually get little scrutiny. Yet industry insiders say the radio spots actually could be more influential at this late stage, as the eyes of swing-state voters glaze over after months of near-constant television ads. – Josh Gerstein
Leading The New York Times: In Dwindling Days of the Race, Romney Takes a Softer Tack
Mitt Romney used to talk up the “crucial” importance of having two parents in the home, saying “a mom and dad together” have a big impact. But over the past week, he has been extolling the virtues of single mothers at every turn, holding them out as examples of Americans “living for something bigger than themselves.” – Michael Barbaro
The political bites of the day
- Bloomberg endorses Obama -
NEW YORK MAYOR MICHAEL BLOOMBERG ENDORSES PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA IN A BLOOMBERG OPINION PIECE: “We need leadership from the White House - and over the past four years, President Barack Obama has taken major steps to reduce our carbon consumption, including setting higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks. … Mitt Romney, too, has a history of tackling climate change. … He couldn’t have been more right. But since then, he has reversed course, abandoning the very cap-and-trade program he once supported. … If the 1994 or 2003 version of Mitt Romney were running for president, I may well have voted for him because, like so many other independents, I have found the past four years to be, in a word, disappointing.”
- New Romney Spanish Florida TV ad pegs Obama to Chavez and Castro–
NARRATOR: Who supports Barack Obama?
CHAVEZ: "If I were American, I'd vote for Obama."
NARRATOR: Raúl Castro's daughter, Mariela Castro, would vote for Obama.
CASTRO: "I would vote for President Obama."
NARRATOR: And to top it off, Obama's Environmental Protection Agency sent emails for Hispanic Heritage month with a photo of Che Guevara.
CHAVEZ: "If Obama were from Barlovento (a Venezuelan town), he'd vote for Chávez."
ROMNEY: I'm Mitt Romney, and I approve this message.
- Obama labels Romney a salesman, links him to Bush -
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN WISCONSIN: “In the closing weeks of this campaign, Governor Romney has been using all of his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly, the very same policies we have been cleaning up after for the past four years. And he is offering them up as change. He is saying he is the candidate of change. Well, let me tell you, Wisconsin – we know what change looks like and what the governor is offering sure ain't change.”
- Hitting Obama, Romney says Department of Business won’t help Main Street -
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN VIRGINIA: “With all these people out of work, with three million more women in poverty today than when he took office, with 15 more million people on food stamps than when he took office, he has got to find something to suggest that it is going to be better over the next four years. So, he came up with an idea last week which is he is going to create a Department of Business. I don’t think adding a new chair in his Cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street.”
What stopped us in 140 characters or less
Todd Akin closing out race appealing to women. Ad featuring raped woman who had abortion. Did nrsc help fund? Click on.cnn.com/UllDF9—
Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) November 01, 2012
The more I hear from smart GOP/Dems, this election is coming down to Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin. That may be tipping pt state, not Ohio—
Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 01, 2012
BREAKING: Private sector hiring jumped in October. Private employers added 158,000 jobs beating economists' forecasts of 143k. (Source: ADP)—
DC Debbie (@DCdebbie) November 01, 2012
Speaking at Obama's WI rally: The only primarily defensive football player to ever win the Heisman, the Univ of Michigan's Charles Woodson—
Mike O'Brien (@mpoindc) November 01, 2012
Patrick Millsaps (@PatrickMillsaps) November 01, 2012
Romney camp confirms he's going to PA on Sunday.—
Jim Acosta (@jimacostacnn) November 01, 2012
History note: John McCain also visited Pennsylvania on the Sunday before the November 2008 election. He lost the state by 10 pts.—
Dan Eggen (@DanEggenWPost) November 01, 2012
Eli Lake (@EliLake) November 01, 2012
(@AdamVerdugo) November 01, 2012
Before President John Adams became the first tenant of the White House, he decided to live in the Tunnicliff’s City Hotel near the Capitol (on the corner of 1st and A Streets, NE).
When he reached Washington, Adams wrote his wife Abigail Adams about the new seat of power in the United States and mentioned the hotel he was staying in.
“I like the seat of government very well and shall sleep or lie awake next winter in the President’s House,” Adams wrote about the then name for the White House. “Mr. Marshall and Mr. Dexter lodge with me at Tunnicliff’s City Hotel very near the Capitol. The establishment of the public offices in this place has given it the air of the seat of government and all things seem to go on well.”
Though the hotel was knocked down just a few short years after Adams stayed there, the legacy of Tunnifcliff’s lives on – a bar on Capitol Hill still bears the name “Tunnicliff's Tavern.”
GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)
Congratulations to Jonathan Gormley (@JonathanGormley) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question. Though someone answered “log cabin” and “at the bar,” Gormley was correct when he tweeted “Tunnicliffe City Hotel” – even though he added an e.
Our inbox awaits: firstname.lastname@example.org
Anyone can sign up for Gut Check by emailing email@example.com
Tips or comments? Send them to Michelle; send complaints to Preston, because he is already in a bad mood. We also want to give a shout out to Dan Merica, who runs our Twitter account @gutCheckCNN and enriches this product every single day.