Polls show Obama edge in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin
November 1st, 2012
07:48 AM ET
1 year ago

Polls show Obama edge in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin

(CNN) – With less than a week before Election Day, polls released Thursday indicated a narrow edge for President Barack Obama in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, three states that are being fiercely contested in the final stretch of the campaign.

In Iowa, Obama was at 50% among likely voters, and Romney at 44%, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. That's slightly tighter than earlier in October, though the result Thursday was just outside the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A poll released Wednesday indicated a much tighter race in the Hawkeye State – the University of Iowa survey had Obama at 42.7% and Romney at 41%.

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Obama's lead in Iowa was bolstered by high levels of early support. A total of 45% of the sample had already cast ballots, or said they were planning to vote before November 6. Among those people, Obama was leading Romney 62%-35%. But among respondents who said they'd vote on Election Day, Romney had the edge, topping Obama 55%-35%.

"President Obama's lead in Iowa is due to those who have voted early or plan to do so, including many independents," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Obama has a 21 point lead among Independent voters who plan to cast an early ballot while Romney is up 9 points among independents who plan to vote on Election Day."

In New Hampshire
, the race was much closer. Forty-nine percent of likely voters in the Granite State back Obama, compared to 47% who support Romney. The two point margin was well within the poll's sampling error, and was tighter than an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that was conducted toward the end of September. The earlier survey had Obama at 51% and Romney at 44%.

The New Hampshire survey released Thursday is the first live operation, non-partisan poll of the state conducted after the final presidential debate on October 22. Polls taken immediately before that showdown indicated a volatile race: an American Research Group survey taken October 9-11 showed Romney with a two point edge over Obama, 49%-47%, but a UNH poll taken October 17-21 showed Obama with the edge, leading Romney 49%-41%.

There were far fewer early voters in the New Hampshire sample, since that state offers only absentee voting by mail, rather than in-person options.

"The battle for New Hampshire's four electoral votes has gotten very close," Miringoff said. "The president is not getting anywhere near what he got four years ago when he carried the state by nine points."

A third NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, in Wisconsin, had Obama at 49% and Romney at 46%, within the sampling error. That's a closer race than was shown in a survey released Wednesday from The Marquette University Law School, which indicated 51% of likely Wisconsin voters backing the president while 43% support Romney.

Of the 25% of respondents who said they had already voted, or planned to vote early, Obama was ahead of Romney 59%-39%. But the GOP nominee led 50%-45%.

"President Obama is advantaged by voters who plan to vote early," Miringoff said. "But, Romney benefits from greater enthusiasm among his supporters."

Obama and Romney are closely matched on who would best handle the economy, which voters consistently rate at their top issue heading into the election. Romney held a slight edge on that question in New Hampshire, but in Iowa and Wisconsin the two candidates were tied.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were taken by telephone from October 28-29, from 1,142 voters in Iowa, 1,013 voters in New Hampshire and 1,065 voters in Wisconsin. The sampling error was 2.9 percentage points in Iowa, 3.1 percentage points in New Hampshire and 3.0 percentage points in Wisconsin.


Filed under: 2012 • Iowa • Mitt Romney • New Hampshire • Polls • President Obama • Wisconsin
soundoff (16 Responses)
  1. Dean

    Media polls always have a bias toward the Democrat. This means nothing.

    November 1, 2012 08:07 am at 8:07 am |
  2. PAUL

    I still got a crush on Obama! Barry you're the best Candidate!! Obama/Biden-2012!!

    November 1, 2012 08:07 am at 8:07 am |
  3. gius

    Theres something a little strange about this Romney guy!

    November 1, 2012 08:09 am at 8:09 am |
  4. james

    How is it that on the same day, two news outlets deliver analysis that tells a very opposite story based on poll results. Nate Silver of the NYT tells us that the gap is actually growing and Romney is loosing ground. He increased his odds of Obama being re-elected to over 78%. How does the political team at CNN to such a different conclusion. Are they choosing to select polls that show a tighter race? And how is double the sampling error "just outside"...no, it's not just outside, it's more than double the sample error in IA. Very questionable reporting.....

    November 1, 2012 08:15 am at 8:15 am |
  5. mojosavings

    Anything, especially a poll with NBC – I discount out of hand immediately.

    November 1, 2012 08:18 am at 8:18 am |
  6. DANNYTER

    I don't know how these states are still going with Obama? Like I said, he dogged Romney for sending jobs to China, but he borrowed money from China. And, some of the money he borrowed to go green, like that company making batteries for electric cars that employed 400 people, went belly up. Why can't people see that another 4 years of this is just not the way to go. The USA needs a businessman and everyone should know that by now!

    November 1, 2012 08:20 am at 8:20 am |
  7. Gurgyl

    Mitt said he shuts Dow FEMA,SS,MEDICARE,HEALTHCARE, He did not release ten years taxes. Bain capital said "LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPT".

    November 1, 2012 08:20 am at 8:20 am |
  8. h mack

    The "polls" are always skewed to favor what ever point the biased media wants to make and as these "polls" are conducted by biased "news" media, you know who they want to make look good but still it's not easy putting lipstick on this pig even if he is acting like he finally has some spine. 3 days "work" out of 4 years isn't much to be "proud of".

    November 1, 2012 08:38 am at 8:38 am |
  9. beevee

    I am glad that the voters can see the sincerety and honesty of the presidential candidates and favor Obama. Trhoughout the campaign Romney has been on the fence changing his positions so often that even a chamaleon could not change its colors as quickly as Romney changed his position on issues. I think he lied a lot along with his running mate Pinochio Ryan just to get elected. Rudy Giuliani rightly called him as a man without a core. I am surprised that the media was not critical of Romney's changing positions on almost every issue and did not question him what he actually stands for.

    November 1, 2012 08:42 am at 8:42 am |
  10. James

    ROFL I hope the leftist believe those over Democrat sampled polls... their fall will be much worse...

    November 1, 2012 08:46 am at 8:46 am |
  11. doug sams

    Lets help Obama OUT with revisiting one of his accomplishments.
    Obama ordered seals to invade a country in order to kill bin laden, but couldn't do the same to help Americans, even when he has admitted to knowing it was terrorist and yet blamed a video.

    November 1, 2012 08:47 am at 8:47 am |
  12. Rick McDaniel

    The Democratic Party controlled CNN, will say Obama is winning even if he is actually losing, badly!

    November 1, 2012 08:49 am at 8:49 am |
  13. Dana F. Blankenhorn

    Obama leads among voters who've voted, while Romney supporters insist they'll get around to it, so the race is essentially tied? Uh, no.

    November 1, 2012 09:07 am at 9:07 am |
  14. MaryM

    Romney is fading away. Thank God

    November 1, 2012 09:09 am at 9:09 am |
  15. NameDoug

    Great to see that we are supporting our President for his leadership and vision for USA

    November 1, 2012 09:10 am at 9:10 am |
  16. Guest AGAIN

    We can only hope Amercians see through the sham administration that is Obama's Stop blaming everyone else and take some responsibility. Stop hiding the cost of ACA, stop hiding the facts on Libya, stop hiding the facts on fast and furious. The worst presidident in our history hands down! Dont be fooled again. Wake up America!

    VOTE ROMNEY/RYAN 2012!

    November 1, 2012 09:17 am at 9:17 am |