November 2nd, 2012
04:00 PM ET
1 year ago

CNN Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47% in Ohio

(CNN) - With four days to go until the presidential election, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a three point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much fought over 18 electoral votes.

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Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 47% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's three-point edge is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll's release comes on the same day that the president holds three campaign events and Romney holds two events in Ohio.

"The race in the Buckeye State has remained essentially the same throughout October, with all three CNN/ORC polls taken in October showing President Obama at 50%-51% and all three showing Governor Romney at 46%-47%," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The CNN poll is in the range of the three other non-partisan, live operator surveys of Ohio likely voters also conducted entirely after last week's final presidential debate. The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll and an American Research Group survey both indicated Obama with two-point edges and a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University poll indicated Obama with a five-point advantage. All of those margins were within the sampling errors of those polls.

The gender, generation and income gaps that CNN polls have indicated in other states are readily apparent in Ohio as well, with Obama winning women by 16 points, lower-income voters by 30 points and those under age 50 by 15 points, while Romney leads among men by 13 points, and holds the advantage with older voters by 6 points and those making more than $50,000 per year.

"The president's prospects are boosted by a strong showing among white women, support in the northern parts of the state as well as the Columbus area, and a big margin among early voters," added Holland. "Romney's chances in the state rest on white men and a good showing in the central part of the state as well as the southwest corner, home to Cincinnati and Dayton."

"It's so close the president will need to run up the margins in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland and its suburbs) and in Columbus, and Governor Romney needs to win Hamilton County (Cincinnati and its suburbs) and elsewhere in southwestern Ohio. It's not an accident he is in that part of the state tonight," said CNN Chief National Correspondent John King.

"Base versus base, in a fairly even divided state," added King, who is reporting Friday from Ohio.

According to the poll, 63% of those who say they have already voted early or who plan to cast a ballot before next Tuesday say they support the president, with 35% backing Romney. But Romney has the 55%-42% advantage among those who plan to vote on Election Day.

Ohio was the state that put President George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. Four years later Obama carried the state by five points over Sen. John McCain. But the Republicans performed well in the Buckeye State in the 2010 midterm elections, winning back the governor's office and five House seats from the Democrats.

This cycle Ohio is seeing an outsized amount of campaign traffic from the presidential candidates and ad spending that has flooded the airwaves. The two presidential campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups backing the two candidates combined have spent over $134 million to run ads on broadcast TV in Ohio since the start of the general election in early April, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks ad spending for its clients. Just in the past week, nearly $14 million has been shelled out to run spots.

"Ohio is a very different place than four years ago. Our numbers show that and you feel it and see it when you visit here," adds King. "The GOP offices have much more energy than late 2008."

The question is, is it enough?

"There is no question the auto bailout helps the president here, but also no question Governor Romney has a more motivated base than John McCain did," says King.

For months the Obama campaign has touted the bailouts and they were giving prominent prime time placement during the Democratic National Convention in early September. It's a strategy that the Obama campaign thinks could be the difference in Ohio, a major base for the auto industry.

"The American auto industry is back on top," said Obama early Friday at a rally in Hilliard, Ohio.

The bailouts were started under President George W. Bush in 2008, but the next year Obama grabbed the keys to the program, managing and funding the bailouts.

Romney opposed the government bailout and pushed for a privately financed, managed bankruptcy of the two automakers. The Obama campaign and other Democrats have attacked Romney over his opposition to the federal assistance.

And they've highlighted pushback by General Motors and Chrysler to a Romney TV ad and a radio spot this past week that claimed that both domestic auto makers were sending U.S. jobs to China.

With four days until the election, the poll indicates that more than nine in ten have made up their minds, with 7% saying they could still change their mind on their choice for president.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio. When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 47%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 5%, Stein at 1% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.

"As always, keep in mind that the poll does not, and cannot, predict the outcome of the election," cautions Holland. "Close elections are inherently unpredictable."

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, with 1,000 adults, including 919 registered voters and 796 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (178 Responses)
  1. Anonymous

    That is not "close". That is Obama leading in the state.

    November 2, 2012 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  2. GI Joe

    I'm so sick of Mitt's lies and Ann's turned up snooty nose I change the channel at the mention of his name.

    Hey – lot's of re-runs on TVLAND

    November 2, 2012 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  3. justin

    CNN poll.... So.... add another 8 points to Romney and you might have realistic numbers.

    November 2, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  4. Al

    Obama has the edge!

    November 2, 2012 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  5. jan

    another CNN poll having their man ahead, imagine that

    November 2, 2012 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  6. Dylan

    The Media really needs to start reporting the polls that include Johnson and Stein. According to their Poll Obama is still up by 3 percent, but 6 percent to Johnson and Stein is HUGE in a close election. Obama will win this election and Johnson will have had the Nader effect on Romney.

    November 2, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. Proud American

    Mitt Romney 2012.
    Real Change for all Americans.

    Nothing is free unless you work to earn it.

    November 2, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  8. Lisa in Ga

    It's on.. I think Obama will carry the state ..... :)

    November 2, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  9. truth hurts

    Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 47% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's three-point edge is within the survey's sampling error.
    ======================================================================================
    In other words.... A STATISTICAL TIE!! And we all know the CNN polls lean towards Democrats and Obama which mean Romney is at least dead even, if not ahead. BYE BYE OBAMA!!! Unless all the federal agents Obama is sending in there play games to give Obama the election.

    November 2, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  10. Kentucky Burbon

    At this point the polls no longer matter because the people are about to make the only choice that will count, and after all is said and done, we will be looking toward the next four years and how the Elected President will move the country:

    November 2, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  11. rigs

    Boy, it's not looking good for Mittens. Check out the new WeAskAmerica polls (republican pollster too). Today Ras even is trying to go back to normal by showing an OH Tie (from R+2). Does anyone still believe the Pennsylvania play is expanding the map and not a desperate attempt at another route to 270?

    November 2, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  12. Mitt Robme_DRAFT_DODGING, TAX_EVADING_POS

    NEW POLLS TODAY, CONFIRMED BY RCP...ALL BREAKING FOR OBAMA!!!!

    Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 47 Obama +5

    New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama New England College Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6

    Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4

    Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Denver Post/SurveyUSA Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2

    BYE BYE MITT ROBME............It's time for you to head off to the CAYMEN ISLAND to count your million$$$ after your concession speech on Tues night....GW Bush is waiting for you there already!!!! LOL

    LANDSLIDE VICTORY OBAMA 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    November 2, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  13. Expat American

    Let's bring it home in OH Mr. President!

    Is Romney still trying to prove his JEEP LIE as truth?

    November 2, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  14. Penny Wright

    Yes we can!

    November 2, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  15. JT

    Obama all the way............

    November 2, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  16. oleole

    obama 2012

    November 2, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  17. jinx88

    Its been like this for a month or so, which is good for Obama.

    November 2, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  18. The Situation

    So this is where Truth Hurts and all the other Rethugs cries that the CNN Poll is left leaning like Mitts pollsters. LOL!

    Face facts, if Ohio goes Democrat with Wisconsin and Michigan, Game, Set, Match, Obama!

    Oh Yeah Rethugs today polls:

    Co: Denver Post/Srvey: Obama 47, Romney 45
    NH: New England College: Obama: 50, Romney: 44
    Iowa: Gravis Maketing: Obama: 49, Romney: 45
    Michigan: Obama 52, Romney: 47

    As you can see the battle ground states is not going Mitts away. The Firewall is strong is in place and strong. Mitts path to 270 is strinking everyday. All the lies, flip flopping Mitts has done and all the money from the Koch Brothers, Aldesion and Rove will not work.

    November 2, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  19. sayer

    Obama is going to win!

    November 2, 2012 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  20. Matt

    Ohio WILL decide this election.

    November 2, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  21. Marilyn

    God so loved the world that He didn't send another poll.

    November 2, 2012 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  22. Oshis

    Uh Huh, so if it's within the 3 popint margin of error couldn't it be interpreted also as Romney 50% and Obama 47%? But that probably wouldn't bode well for the Left leaning media would it?

    November 2, 2012 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  23. Sorry Charlie

    CNN poll? Isn't that like Military Intellengence. Both oxymorons

    November 2, 2012 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  24. Pete

    Romney after his statement about Jeep,Chrysler is lucky he's this close and he hasn't seen the real voters numbers because its changing daily.After this deal he might be sued after the statements by the CEOs if the two auto giants say so and Romney deserves it opening his mouth and sticking his foot in it ,that's been his trouble since the primaries with more mouth ,less intelligence but that's the republican party isn't it!!

    November 2, 2012 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  25. SeanName

    If Obama goes into Tuesday up 3-5 points Romney cannot make that up due to the attention to detail Obama ground game in my opinion!!!! Romney has to go into every battleground state on Election Day up at least 2 points to have a chance but it will be a close race that Obama will win

    November 2, 2012 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
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