CNN's GUT CHECK for November 2, 2012
November 2nd, 2012
05:09 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN's GUT CHECK for November 2, 2012

CNN's GUT CHECK | for November 2, 2012 | 5 p.m.
- n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

BREAKING: OHIO, OHIO, OHIO: OBAMA 50% – ROMNEY 47% IN NEW CNN/ORC POLL According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a three point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney with four days to go in the contest for Ohio's 18 electoral votes. Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 47% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's three-point edge is within the survey's sampling error. The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll's release comes on the same day that the president holds three campaign events and Romney holds two in Ohio. – Paul Steinhauser

DEVELOPING: DOJ SENDS VOTING RIGHTS MONITORS, OBSERVERS TO 23 STATES The Justice Department on Friday announced that it is dispatching more than 780 federal observers and monitors to 23 states to watch for potential problems that would violate voting rights protected by federal law. The Justice Department said it was sending observers to 51 jurisdictions in those states to help enforce federal voting rights laws which protect ballot access. – Terry Frieden

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)
When was the last time the United States House of Representatives selected the president?

MARK (@PrestonCNN) & MICHELLE (@MJaconiCNN)
What caught our eye today in politics

CNN’s Ali Velshi broke down the five things he thinks we need to know about the final jobs report out this morning in a refreshingly digestible way; and today here’s what caught his (@AliVelshi) eye:

1. It's a trend, not a bombshell

2. Neither candidate has a real plan

3. They're both making promises they have no way of guaranteeing they'll keep

4. Both plans are based on an average of 4% economic growth over the next term

5. Europe's the problem, not China

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Battleground Colorado - 'Everyone is on edge'
After covering seven presidential campaigns, you might think you have seen it all. But two firsts in Colorado on Thursday: drive-through voting and a presidential ballot with the option of voting for Roseanne Barr. The drive-through action was in downtown Denver, part of a Colorado early voting rush that is likely to account for more than half of the ballots cast in this presidential battleground. – John King

Leading Drudge: The Longest Weekend
The ethnic mix of this year’s electorate could decide the winner of the race between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. It’s a reality that gives both campaigns sleepless nights, since a shift of a percentage point or two in the turnout of any major racial group could swing the outcome on Nov. 6. – Niall Stanage for The Hill

Leading HuffPo: 'Rule' Won't Save Romney
President Barack Obama continues to hold narrow leads in a handful of battleground states that will likely decide the election, but some argue that Republican nominee Mitt Romney will come out on top because Obama's poll totals linger just below 50 percent. The arguments are based on what campaign pollsters used to call the "incumbent rule," the idea that when an officeholder seeks reelection, undecided voters would break decisively to challengers in the final days of the campaign. The problem is that such late shifts have become increasingly rare. They may never have been much of a factor in close presidential races and show few empirical signs of occurring among the undecided voters of 2012. – Mark Blumenthal

Leading Politico: Jobs report puts economy back in campaign spotlight
After a week consumed by Hurricane Sandy, the election’s final jobs report snapped the focus back to the economy Friday as President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney rejoined their battle. In the end, the final jobs report before Election Day paints a picture of the U.S. economy that looks a lot like the 2012 campaign itself: a long, grinding march forward with little in the way of big inspiration that still slightly favors Obama. – Ben White and Patrick Reis

Leading The New York Times: Romney’s Closing Argument: ‘Look to the Record’
At the start of a frantic final weekend of campaigning, Mitt Romney on Friday urged voters to judge him on his record in government and accomplishments in the private sector, arguing in a lofty speech that he offered deeper experience and a greater commitment to bipartisanship than President Obama. – Michael Barbaro

TRAIL MOMENTS
The political bites of the day

– Spinning the jobs numbers –
MITT ROMNEY IN A WRITTEN PRESS RELEASE FROM HIS CAMPAIGN: “Today’s increase in the unemployment rate is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill. The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office, and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work. On Tuesday, America will make a choice between stagnation and prosperity. For four years, President Obama’s policies have crushed America’s middle class. For four years, President Obama has told us that things are getting better and that we’re making progress. For too many American families, those words ring hollow. We can do better.”

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN OHIO: “Today, our businesses have created nearly five and a half million new jobs. And this morning we learned that companies hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months. … The American auto industry is back on top. Home values and housing construction is on the rise. We are less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in 20 years. Because of the service and sacrifice of the brave men and women in uniform the war in Iraq is over. The war in Afghanistan is ending. Al Qaeda has been decimated. Osama bin laden is dead. We have made real progress.”

– Romney forewarns about debt ceiling debate –
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN WISCONSIN: “You know that if the president is re-elected he will still be unable to work with the people in Congress. I mean he has ignored them. He has attacked them. He has blamed them. The debt ceiling will come up again and shut down and default will be threatened, chilling the economy.”

– Citing Lugar’s ousting, Clinton hits GOP for lacking bipartisanship –
FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN FLORIDA: “I believe the country works better when we work together instead of when we fight all the time. But the Republicans have been taken over by this tea party, this extreme wing, and their nominee, for example, in Indiana beat Senator Richard Lugar, their most important authority on foreign affairs. And he attacked Lugar for cooperating with president Obama on the nation’s security. He said, you know his happiest day was when he could impose his opinion on someone else and he wanted to bring more partisanship to Washington.”

– But in Ohio, Romney talks of one nation –
MITT ROMNEY AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN OHIO: “I will not represent one party. I will represent one nation.”

– Bloomberg on marathon: ‘there will be no diversion of resources’ –
NEW YORK MAYOR MICHAEL BLOOMBERG ADDRESSES CONTROVERSY OVER THE NEW YORK CITY MARATHON AT A PRESS CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK: “There will be no diversion of resources. There will be no redistribution of our efforts, no diminution of our efforts. We have a 24-7 operation going which I am confident we are going to do. We have to do everything we can to help people and when power returns over the next day and mass transit, more people are able to go to their homes that is going to make a difference.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

NEWS YOU CAN USE: Find your Voting place

TRIVIA ANSWER

The elephant in the room – what happens if President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney split the Electoral College – 269 to 269?

In short, the House of Representatives would select the president and set off a wave of political and constitutional mayhem.

The last time the House selected the presidency was in 1824, when John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Harris Crawford and Henry Clay all ran for the White House. When the electoral votes were split up between the four men – with Andrew Jackson receiving the most at 99 – the election went to the House because a majority of electoral votes is required to win.

Clay, at the time, was speaker of the House and rumors swirled about whether he would tip the race in his favor. Though he later denied it, Clay reportedly offered his support to Adams and Jackson as long as they would make him secretary of state.

It only took the House one round of voting – Adams was elected president. Just a few days later, Clay was named secretary of state. The term “Corrupt Bargain” leapt into popular jargon and Jackson’s supporters cried foul.

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congratulations to Greg Dean (@gregdean11) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question. David Daniel (@CNNLADavid) was a close second – apparently he was “elaborating” while Greg tweeted.

GOT NEWS?
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Tips or comments? Send them to Michelle; send complaints to Preston, because he is already in a bad mood. We also want to give a shout out to Dan Merica, who runs our Twitter account @gutCheckCNN and enriches this product every single day.


Filed under: CNN's Gut Check
soundoff (17 Responses)
  1. truth hurts

    According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a three point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney with four days to go in the contest for Ohio's 18 electoral votes.
    ==========================================================================================
    Come on CNN, please be honest in your writing. There is NO advantage because they are in a statistical TIE. The people writing this stuff need to leave out their Obama bias.

    November 2, 2012 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  2. cpeters

    Clinton – what a sleaze bag. He pulled down the country morally, and the Dems kept him in. The ONLY reason his "economy" produced so much revenue for the Govt. was the internet bubble – which burst spectacularly after he left office.

    November 2, 2012 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  3. FrediMeier

    Human beings are by nature more motivated to start something new, other than to support something existing. That’s why it’s important to mobilize Obama supporters to go to vote!

    November 2, 2012 05:46 pm at 5:46 pm |
  4. Marie MD

    The only gut feeling anyone is getting is the sound of the twit and the lyan altar boy running to the bathroom the evening of November 6th.

    November 2, 2012 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  5. Gurgyl

    Mitt the twit is so PATHETIC, he lies, lies, lies, I hate that sob. Bain-capital ruined USA for greed. This animal outsourced jobs for GREED. All just say yes, on OBAMA12. I can not hear, once more all say "yes, on Obama12.". Amen, all say "Amen". Once again, please, I can not hear, one more time, amen. Obama12.

    November 2, 2012 06:02 pm at 6:02 pm |
  6. Sniffit

    Can't wait to get my gloat on.

    November 2, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  7. giftedgirl77

    Goodbye Romney and the rest of your Klan. The way the polls are looking (not the cnn poll) the nutty right wing tea baggers are finally going to be out.

    Hopefully the will all take their outlandish, outdated misconceptions elsewhere. Preferably a deserted island where than can form their own little colony.

    November 2, 2012 06:31 pm at 6:31 pm |
  8. crp

    After all the ads and all the hype one thing does not seem to get attention. Mr. Romney headed a company which fostered business mergers and takeovers. The result was the lost of jobs and pink slips for lots of employees. Jobs were lost and not recouped. Why hasn't the press told the story? Small firms were merged with larger companies and some lost their jobs. The smaller companies were put right out of business. So how did he support small businesses?

    It is really too bad that this was not told to the public. Now we have ads by Mr. Romney touting his support for small businesses. He is stating that people will be off food stamps because he will be creating good paying jobs. Will he raise the pay of people who work in the fast food industry? Will he pay more to dishwashers? How about those who clean office space, etc. Will they be getting new jobs? Who will then take their place? Every person who works should be respected and treated with dignity. If it happens that they need food stamps to supplement their income then so be it. It should be a source of pride that we do not allow our families to go hungry. It should be a source of pride that those who work are respected and honored for the job they do and not for the salary. Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan do not understand that fact. It is what you do and how you do it not the money you will make. The 1% cannot understand that. Money is the object for them.

    November 2, 2012 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  9. GI Joe

    Just because Lyin Mutt has more ads, and more money, and tells bigger and stranger lies, doesn't mean he gonna change any minds. But I guess it will help keep people stay employed (which ticks mutt off).

    obama/biden 2012 -- I voted early and now help elderly and semi-invalid get to the polls to vote. I take my cell phone and take pics if anyone gives them any harrassment or intimidation. I have evidence. ha ha ha ha h haha ha ha

    So far they have just been "True the Vote" bullies, so no one was prevented from voting, but it may have been because of the pics. Who knows?

    November 2, 2012 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  10. Doomed Dems

    4 years of democratic policies have brought us to the edge of 3rd world status. It's time for a change America, we can be better with better leadership! Vote Romney/Ryan and make our nation great again!

    November 2, 2012 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  11. big. H

    Let. Obama. Finish.the. Good. Job. He. Has. Done. Its. Hard.to. Repair. The. Eight. Years. Of. Wreakage. Bush. Has. Greated. Obama. Deserve. To. Be. Re-elected.mitt.will Not. Keep. His. Word. Trust. Me

    November 2, 2012 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  12. Zallen

    Oh Yeah, Clinton getting a little on the side is just so horrible but lying us into a war, crashing the world economy, torture, allowing the biggest terrorist attack on American soil ever, well thats just hunky dory. Do you people ever listen to the things you say???

    November 2, 2012 09:18 pm at 9:18 pm |
  13. Katherine

    The Obama Deception is OVER. As the election finally nears, I am struck by the imminent 'gut check' that millions and millions of Americans will experience. They won't see it coming when their totally self absorbed, 'slow jamming' "Preezy of the United Steezy" loses spectacularly. Indeed, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth, as disillusioned voters come to grips with the reality check of a righteously indignant nation. Americans are SICK of the LIES. We know better. We deserve better. And, we shall have better leadership in Washington.

    November 2, 2012 10:43 pm at 10:43 pm |
  14. Hugh Mann

    Romney = 47% , yuk yuk yuk

    November 2, 2012 11:46 pm at 11:46 pm |
  15. CraigRB

    The thought of Romney as President is nauseating. He's such a phony and I'm in shock that so many Americans have bought the crap that comes out of his lying mouth.

    November 3, 2012 01:00 am at 1:00 am |
  16. joshua

    Obama = Jimmy Carter. Same failed policies, same failed results. Obama can't even get his own party members to support him and it's time to send him back home to Chicago.

    November 3, 2012 07:21 am at 7:21 am |
  17. Marry

    "...Mitt Romney on Friday urged voters to judge him on his record in government and accomplishments in the private sector..."
    Oh, Mitt you should not have said that! Your record as “corporate raider” is "great" for you – as Governor of Massachusetts it is dismal for the people. They run you out of town! The only useful thing you ever did (Romney – Care) you run from now! The GOP, you and Ryan have some NERVE to ask for our vote after what you all have produced over the years!
    We checked your record! And we watched the GOP! You and your friends think that after all the work and suffering the people and the President did for the last 4 years to get out of the dump the GOP put us in, the US is ready to "HARVEST" again? Back to the good "old" days? Tickle down? FORGET IT! Now we say "NO" to the GOP and you! We are smart, we do not suffer from amnesia we do not like to be misled! We like and appreciate the successful work of the President in the White House! He does work for us all every day! NO need to change!
    Let's go out together and VOTE! Strait "D" ticket.

    November 3, 2012 08:58 am at 8:58 am |